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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--August 7

Aug 08, 2012

Tuesday Evening, August 7-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $0.17 at
$124.17 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today. Losses were again limited by the key “outside
markets” being in a bullish posture for cattle today, as
the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
firmer. Recent price action is a clue the cattle market has
put in a near-term low. Cattle futures bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$126.45. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $122.15. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $124.85 and then at this week’s high of
$125.50. First support is seen at $124.00 and then at last
week’s low of $123.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed up $0.07 at $140.12 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading.
Feeders still appear to be “basing” at lower price levels,
which could mean a market low is in place. Feeder cattle
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $144.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $138.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $140.70 and
then at $141.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$139.65 and then at $138.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

October lean hogs closed down $0.25 at $74.92 today. Prices
closed near the session low again today and hit another
fresh contract low. Bears have the solid downside near-term
technical advantage. However, this market is technically
oversold on a short-term basis. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $78.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $74.00. First
resistance is seen at $75.50 and then at this week’s high
of $76.20. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$74.90 and then at $74.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were down
5 1/2 cents at $7.99 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the
session low on profit taking. There are some better chances
for rain in the Corn Belt in the coming days and that was a
bit bearish. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker
and crude oil prices were firmer. That did limit losses.
The corn bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as a steep uptrend is still in place
from the June low. Traders are anxiously awaiting Friday
morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above psychological resistance at $8.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.45
1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s
high of $8.10 and then at $8.16 3/4. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $7.89 1/4 and then at $7.81.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were down 16
1/2 cents at $15.67 1/2 a bushel today. Prices were near
the session low, hit a fresh two-week low and scoring a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls
are fading a bit. There are better chances for rain in the
Corn Belt in the coming days and that was bearish news for
the still-developing soybean crop. Some more profit taking
was also seen in soybeans today. Soybeans have taken over
the lead from the corn market. Soybean bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing November prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $16.63 1/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $15.36. First resistance is seen at $15.85 and
then at $15.92. First support is seen at $15.60 and then at
$15.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

In late trading, December soybean meal was down $7.40 at
$470.80 today. Prices were near the session low. Meal bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
are fading. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $500.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $454.30. First resistance comes
in at $475.00 and then at $480.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $470.30 and then at $465.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

In late trading, December bean oil was down 18 points at
52.11 cents today. Prices were near the session low and set
to close a fresh five-week low close. Bean oil bears have
the slight near-term technical advantage as prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 52.50 cents and then at 52.85 cents.
First support is seen at 52.00 cents and then at this
week’s low of 51.84 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was down 5 1/2
cents at $9.00 1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session
low today and saw more profit taking from recent gains. The
wheat market is still closely following corn and soybeans.
Wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, this is also a very mature bull market
run. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push
and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $9.33 1/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $8.64 1/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.17 3/4 and then at $9.25. First support
lies at this week’s low of $8.89 1/2 and then at $8.80.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was down 2 3/4
cents at $9.16 1/4 today. Prices were nearer the session
low and saw more profit taking. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bull
market run is very mature. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $9.45.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $8.74.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.27 and then
at $9.35. First support is seen at this week’s low of $9.04
1/4 and then at $9.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

In late trading, December oats were down 3 cents at $3.72
today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$3.92 1/4. First support lies at $3.70 and then at $3.67
1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.76 and
then at $3.79 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 42 points at 21.41
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit another fresh five-week low. The sugar bears
have the near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 22.50 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 20.50 cents. First resistance is seen
at 21.67 cents and then at 22.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 21.25 cents and then at 21.14 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September coffee closed down 215 points at 173.35 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 180.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 175.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 176.20 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 172.40 cents and then at last week’s low of
170.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

September cocoa closed up $41 at $2,439 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh 4.5-
month high. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Cocoa bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
choppy, two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the March high of $2,455. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,300. First
resistance is seen at $2,455 and then at the February high
of $2,480. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,402
and then at $2,375. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December cotton closed down 32 points at 75.40 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
2.5-month high. Price action recently has produced a
bullish upside “breakout” from the recent choppy and
sideways trading range. Bulls have gained some fresh upside
near-term technical momentum. The cotton bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 79.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
75.98 cents and then at 77.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 74.70 cents and then at 74.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September orange juice closed up 135 points at $1.1245
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at last week’s
high of $1.1675. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the May low of $1.0000. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1.1335 and then
at $1.1500. First support is seen at $1.1000 and then at
today’s low of $1.0830. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September lumber futures closed up $0.80 at $289.60 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have
regained the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $277.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the July high of $296.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $290.50 and
then at $292.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$288.00 and then at $286.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $3.60 an ounce
at $1,612.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and saw chart consolidation in quieter summertime
trading. The key “outside markets” were bullish today—
weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. That
did limit selling interest in gold. The gold market bulls
and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing
field. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the June high of $1,646.40. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $1,559.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,621.30 and then at last week’s
high of $1,633.30. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $1,605.30 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.222 an ounce at
$28.085 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for silver today, as
the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
firmer. Silver bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.18
and then at last week’s high of $28.335. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $27.735 and then at this week’s low
of $27.565. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 500 points 343.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Copper
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of 325.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of 345.70 cents and then at 347.50 cents.
First support is seen at 340.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 337.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed up $1.22 a barrel
at $93.42 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
a fresh 2.5-month high. Crude oil bulls have fresh upside
technical momentum and have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A five-week-old price uptrend has been re-
established on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$96.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $86.92.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $94.42 and then
at $95.00. First support is seen at $92.50 and then at
today’s low of $91.78. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September heating oil closed up 519 points at $2.9928
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.8250. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0085 and then at
$3.0250. First support is seen at $2.9750 and then at
$2.9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 633 points at
$2.9855 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh three-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside
momentum today. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.8500.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.0088 and
then at $3.0250. First support is seen at $2.9500 and then
at today’s low of $2.9128. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September natural gas closed up 6.1 cents at $2.969 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $3.277. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of $2.706. First resistance is seen
at $3.00 and then at $3.065. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.882 and then at this week’s low of
$2.801. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 13 points at 1.2414 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today and closed at a fresh four-week high
close as the bulls have gained a bit of upside technical
momentum to suggest a near-term low is in place. The bulls
do have more work to do to suggest an uptrend can be
sustained. The Euro bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.2500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at the July low of 1.2051. First
resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.2450
and then at 1.2500. Next support is seen at this week’s low
of 1.2347 and then at 1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The September Japanese yen closed down 72 points at 1.2717
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh two-week low close on profit taking.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but
trading has turned choppy. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the July high of 1.2854. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2600. First resistance is seen at 1.2750 and then at
today’s high of 1.2800. First support is seen at last
week’s low of 1.2700 and then at 1.2650. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 10 points at 1.0337
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a
fresh four-week high close. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage in the Swissy.
However, the bulls have gained some fresh upside near-term
momentum. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0400.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 1.0040. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of 1.0366 and then at 1.0400. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.0284 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed down 25 points at
1.0515 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and did a fresh contract high early on. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at 1.0700. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at 1.0250. First resistance
is seen at today’s contract high of 1.0564 and then at
1.0600. Next support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0496
and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 23 points at 1.0021
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0150. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9850. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0029
and then at 1.0050. First support is seen at 1.0000 and
then at today’s low of .9979. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed up 24 points at 1.5632
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field and
confined to a well-defined trading range. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the June high of
1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.5456. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5684 and then at
1.5700. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5562 and
then at last week’s low of 1.5488. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 2 points at
82.28 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh four-week low early on. The bulls are
fading but do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
July high of 84.24. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance
lies at this week’s high of 82.62 and then at 83.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 82.06 and then at 81.56.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 10/32 at 148 19/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
five-week low today. Bull still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but faded today. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 148 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the contract high
of 153 11/32. First resistance is seen at 149 even and then
at 149 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 148
10/32 and then at 148 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 18.0 (32nds) at 133.17.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but did fade today. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at last week’s high of 134.29.5. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at 133.26.5 and then at
today’s high of 134.04.0. First support is seen at today’s
low of 133.14.0 and then at 133.04.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher again today. The indexes also hit fresh three-month
highs. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical
momentum recently as the stock market is “climbing a wall
of worry.”

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 25.25 at 2,711.75.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh three-
month high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
April high of 2,791.50. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the July low of 2,516.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,723.00 and then at 2,750.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,686.25 and then
at this week’s low of 2,671.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 6.90 at 1,396.80.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
three-month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
May high of 1,411.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,403.30 and then at 1,411.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,388.00 and then
at 1,375.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 52 points at 13,119 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and did hit another fresh
three-month high. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the May high of 13,280. The next downside price objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 12,400. First resistance in the Dow lies at
today’s high of 13,160 and then at 13,200. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 13,057 and then at 13,000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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