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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 18

Dec 19, 2012

Tuesday Evening, December 18-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.55 at
$132.95 today. Prices closed near the session low today on
profit taking after hitting another fresh nine-month high
early on. Cash cattle market fundamentals are on the
upswing recently. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $135.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $131.00. First resistance is
seen at $133.50 and then at today’s high of $134.00. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $132.82 and then at
$132.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed down $1.85 at $154.40 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a big
and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Prices did hit a fresh 5.5-month high early on today. No
serious chart damage occurred today but the bulls do not
want to see follow-through selling pressure on Wednesday
that would begin to suggest a near-term market top is in
place. The feeder bulls still have the overall chart
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at today’s high of $157.07. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $153.00.
First resistance is seen at $155.00 and then at $155.50.
First support is seen at $154.00 and then at $153.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

February lean hogs closed up $0.52 at $85.27 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for the hog market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Trading
has turned choppy. A three-month-old uptrend is in place on
the daily chart. The bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at the November contract high
of $88.25. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support
at the December low of $83.20. First resistance is seen at
$85.50 and then at last week’s high of $86.25. First
support is seen at $85.00 and then at today’s low of
$84.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were down 6 1/2 cents at 7.17
1/2 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session
low and poised to close at a fresh four-week low close
today. Recent slack U.S. export demand has hurt the bullish
camp. Corn bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the November low of $7.14 1/4. First resistance
for March corn is seen at $7.20 and then at today’s high of
$7.25 3/4. First support is seen at the November low of
$7.14 1/4 and then at $7.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

January soybeans were down 30 cents at $14.66 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near the session low on
profit taking and on reports of Chinese cancellations of
previous U.S. soybean purchases. Soybean bulls faded today
and are now back on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bears. A four-week-old uptrend is still in
place on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing January prices above
solid technical resistance at $15.25 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $14.50.
First resistance is seen at $14.75 and then at $15.00.
First support is seen at $14.60 and then at $14.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March soybean meal was down $9.80 at $442.10 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low today on
profit taking. Meal bulls faded today but still have the
slight near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old
uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart, but
now just barely. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $457.90. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $431.30. First resistance comes in at $445.00
and then at $447.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $441.10 and then at $437.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

March bean oil was down 66 points at 49.57 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low. The bean
oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the December high of 51.85 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
49.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 50.53 cents. First support is seen
at last week’s low of 49.37 cents and then at 49.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 4 1/2 cents at $8.12 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on
tepid short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still
have the near-term technical advantage as a five-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The recent
pause at lower price levels is not bullish. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the November
low of $8.45 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $8.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $8.19 and then at
$8.25 1/2. First support lies at $8.00 and then at $7.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 3/4 cents at $8.55 in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range and hit another
fresh five-month low today. HRW bears have downside
momentum and have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $9.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$8.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.61
1/2 and then at this week’s high of $8.67 1/4. First
support is seen at today’s low of $8.50 3/4 and then at
$8.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March oats were down 8 cents at $3.81 1/4 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low. Oats bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.67
1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $4.05. First support lies at today’s low of
$3.79 1/2 and then at $3.75. First resistance is seen at
$3.85 and then at $3.88. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 10 points at 19.31 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the sugar market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
modestly higher. Yet, sugar could not rally, which is
another bearish clue. Sugar bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
18.31 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of 19.45 cents and then at 19.77 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 19.06 cents and then at 19.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March coffee closed down 230 points at 143.65 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the coffee market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
modestly higher. Yet, coffee bulls could get no upside
traction, which is another bearish clue for coffee. The
coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside breakout objective for the
bulls is to close prices above solid technical resistance
at 157.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 140.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 148.00 cents and then at 150.00 cents.
First support is seen at the contract low of 142.20 cents
and then at 140.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed down $18 at $2,407 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the cocoa market today as the U.S. dollar index
was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Yet, cocoa
bulls could get no traction, which is a bearish clue. The
cocoa bulls and bears are still on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $2,369. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2,420 and then at last week’s high of $2,453.
First support is seen at today’s low of $2,387 and then at
$2,369. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March cotton closed up 20 points at 76.05 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh two-month high. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the cotton market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were modestly higher.
The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 76.39 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the December low of 73.50 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 76.29 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 75.25 cents and
then at 75.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January orange juice closed steady at $1.3800 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and did hit a fresh
seven-month high early on. FCOJ bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.4500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.3000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.4060 and then at $1.4200. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.3670 and then at this week’s low of
$1.3415. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

January lumber futures closed up $0.50 at $358.70 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh contract high and 6.5-year high close. The lumber
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $342.10. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$370.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s contract high
of $360.70 and then at $362.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $355.40 and then at $352.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $33.00 an
ounce at $1,664.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today, hit a fresh 3.5-month low and scored a
technically bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar
chart, whereby the day's high is higher and low is lower
than Monday's daily trading range, with a lower close.
Prices today dropped below important near-term chart
support at the November low of $1,674.70, and also below
the key 200-day moving average on the daily chart, which
came in at $1,668.80 on Tuesday. Serious near-term chart
damage was inflicted today, to re-establish a 2.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bears now have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-
term downside breakout price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First
resistance is seen at $1,674.40 and then at 1,684.10. First
support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,662.00 and then at
$1,650.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0

March silver futures closed down $0.75 an ounce at $31.53
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today, scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and hit a
fresh six-week low. The silver bears today gained the
slight near-term technical advantage as prices are in a
three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Near-term
chart damage has been inflicted in silver recently,
including more today. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $33.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $30.79.
First resistance is seen at $31.75 and then at $32.00. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $31.40 and then at
$31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 165 points at 365.00 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low. Copper bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
355.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
364.80 cents and then at this week’s high of 369.30 cents.
First support is seen at the December low of 363.30 cents
and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed up $0.73 a barrel at
$87.93 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on short covering. A weaker U.S. dollar index was again
mildly bullish for crude. A bullish “cup and saucer”
formation has developed on the daily bar chart. Crude oil
bulls and bears are now on a near-term technical playing
field. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at the December high of $90.33 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the November low of
$84.53. First resistance is seen at $88.50 and then at
$89.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.21 and
then at this week’s low of $86.48. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

January heating oil closed up 383 points at $2.9946 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.8500. First resistance lies at today’s high
of $3.0065 and then at $3.0300. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.9589 and then at $2.9200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 376 points at
$2.6922 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the December high of $2.7627. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the December low of $2.5893. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2.7068 and then at $2.7250. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.6590 and then at $2.6250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January natural gas closed up 3.7 cents at $3.394 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering. Nat
gas bears still have the near-term technical advantage. A
steep four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.75. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the August and September lows of $3.20. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.45 and then at $3.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.336 and then at last
week’s low of $3.261. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 62 points at 1.3234 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today and hit another fresh 7.5-month high
today. The bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.3300. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high of 1.3252 and then at 1.3300. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.3168 and then at 1.3100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 54 points at 1.1885
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.2100. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.1750. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.1939 and then at this week’s high of 1.1968. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of 1.1876 and then
at 1.1850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed up 54 points at 1.0966 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
seven-month high. The Swissy bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1100. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0750. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0979 and then at 1.1000. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0903 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

The March Australian dollar closed down 13 points at 1.0461
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
some more mild profit taking. Prices Monday hit a contract
high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0600. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
1.0360. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0487
and then at the contract high of 1.0520. Next support is
seen at 1.0436 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5

The March Canadian dollar closed down 14 points at 1.0125
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0200. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0000.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.0158 and
then at 1.0175. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.0099 and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March British pound closed up 47 points at 1.6246
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-month high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of 1.6281.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.6075. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6267 and then at
1.6281. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.6191 and
then at this week’s low of 1.6153. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 24 points at 79.37
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-month low. The bears have the near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh downside momentum today. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 80.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
October low of 79.20. Next resistance lies at today’s high
of 79.65 and then at this week’s high of 79.78. First
support is seen at 79.20 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 8/32 at 146 1/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-
month low today. Bulls have faded badly and the bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of 144
27/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148
24/32. First resistance is seen at 146 16/32 and then at
147 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 145 19/32
and then at 145 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 15.0 (32nds) at 131.30.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low. Bulls are fading badly and bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 132.27.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the October low of 131.03.0.
First resistance is seen at 132.00.0 and then at today’s
high of 132.12.5. First support is seen at today’s low of
131.25.5 and then at 131.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer again today. Attention of the market place remains
on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts
that is fast approaching. Early this week there has been
significant movement on the Republican side toward more
middle ground, which suggested both sides are coming closer
to a deal, but not that close yet. This has given the U.S.
and world stock markets a boost early this week. The market
place still reckons odds are higher than not that there
will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to
avoid the fiscal cliff. The overall situation has been a
bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities
and stock markets. In overnight news, Asian and European
stock markets also pushed higher on the apparent progress
on the U.S. fiscal cliff talks. Data from the European
Union showed Spain’s local banks held a record amount of
bad debt in October as overall loans dropped to a five-year
low. This is a reminder of the major financial and economic
problems that EU leaders face in the coming months.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 42.00 at 2,704.00
today. Prices closed near the session high again today and
hit a fresh two-month high. Bulls today regained the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,750.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
2,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,707.00 and then at 2,725.00. First support is seen at
2,685.00 and then at today’s low of 2,662.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 14.00 at 1,441.00.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh two-
month high today. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the September high
of 1,467.50. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
December low of 1,397.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,443.50 and then at 1,450.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,425.50 and then at last
week’s low of 1,406.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 99 points at 13,283. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-month
high today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 13,500.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
12,915. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
13,310 and then at 13,350. First support is seen at 13,250
and then at today’s low of 13,180. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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