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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 26

Dec 27, 2012

Wednesday Evening, December 24--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing
from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I was out of the office today. My friend and fellow
trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a
bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and enjoy his
work, too. --Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it extends
the decline off December’s high. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the
reaction low crossing at 2609.25 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
2663.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2663.00.
Second resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at
2713.75. First support is the reaction low crossing at
2609.25. Second support is November’s low crossing at
2502.00.

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1416.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If March renews the rally off November’s low,
October’s high crossing at 1456.30 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing
at 1445.80. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at
1456.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1416.10. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at
1391.70.

The Dow close lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline
off last week’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13,139 are needed to confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off
November’s low, the 87% retracement level of the October-
November decline crossing at 13,519 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at
13,360. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of
the October-November decline crossing at 13,519. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,139.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12,923.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed up 13/32’s at 147-21.

March T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month’s decline.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-19 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
renews the decline off December’s high, October’s low
crossing at 144-27 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-19.
Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 150-28.
First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 145-19.
Second support is October’s low crossing at 144-27.

ENERGY MARKETS

February crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday and
above the upper boundary of this winter’s trading range
crossing at 90.90. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session
begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If February extends trading range breakout, the
reaction high crossing at 94.42 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.18
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 91.30. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.42. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.18.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-
September rally crossing at 85.44.

February heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
February extends today’s rally, December’s high crossing at
309.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 299.56 would signal that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at 307.17. Second resistance is
December’s high crossing at 309.61. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 299.56. Second support is the
50% retracement level of the June-October rally crossing at
289.15.

February unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday
renewing the rally off November’s low. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends
this month’s rally, October’s high crossing at 280.87 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 268.03 would signal that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
280.47. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at
280.87. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 268.03. Second support is December’s low crossing at
259.59.

February Henry natural gas closed higher due to short
covering on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and
the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 3.515 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If February renews the
decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement level of
the April-October rally crossing at 3.211 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 3.515. Second resistance is the December
10th gap crossing at 3.569. First support is December’s low
crossing at 3.316. Second support is the 87% retracement
level of the April-October rally crossing at 3.211.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it
consolidated some of the rally off last week’s low. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.95 are needed
to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
extends the decline off November’s high, September’s low
crossing at 78.94 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.95.
Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.05.
First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.01.
Second support is September’s low crossing at 78.94.

The March Euro closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
130.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March extends the rally off November’s low,
weekly resistance crossing at 133.91 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing
at 133.21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing
at 132.87. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 131.88. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 130.99.

The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it
extended the decline off last week’s high. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in
or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1.6121 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If March extends the rally off November’s low,
weekly resistance crossing at 1.6353 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing
at 1.6267. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing
at 1.6353. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1.6121. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 1.5998.

The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last
week’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10850 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the
62% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
.11153 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at .11026. Second resistance is the
62% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
.11153. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at .10926. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10850.

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it
consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at
100.84. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends
the decline off December’s high, November’s low crossing at
99.19 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally
off November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at .10166 is the next
upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing
at 101.58. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of
the September-November decline crossing at .10166. First
support is Monday’s low crossing at 100.28. Second support
is November’s low crossing at 99.19.

The March Japanese Yen gapped down and closed sharply lower
on Wednesday as it extends the decline off September’s high.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-
term. If March extends the decline off September’s high,
monthly support crossing at .11307 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
.12031 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at .11891. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at .12031. First support is today’s low
crossing at .11673. Second support is monthly support
crossing at .11307.

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1693.90 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the
decline off November’s high, the 75% retracement level of
the May-October rally crossing at 1603.30 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1677.50. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1693.90. First support is the 62%
retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at
1638.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
May-October rally crossing at 1603.30.

March silver closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline.
The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off November’s high,
the 75% retracement level of the June-October rally crossing
at 28 670 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 32.350 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 31.335. Second resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.350. First support
is last Thursday’s low crossing at 29.635.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-
October rally crossing at 28 670.

March copper closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this month’s decline, the reaction low
crossing at 349.45 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 363.61
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 363.61.
Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 372.10.
First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 352.30.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 349.45.

GRAINS

March Corn closed down 11-cents at 6.93 1/4. March corn
closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day bounce off last
Thursday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. If March renews the decline off
November’s high, the 50% retracement level of the May-August
rally crossing at 6.78 3/4 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.30 1/4
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
7.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.30 1/4. First support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 6.87 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement
level of the May-August rally crossing at 6.78 3/4.

March wheat closed down 19 1/4-cents at 7.77 1/2.

March wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends
the decline off November’s high. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off the late-November high, the 62%
retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.65 3/4
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 8.31 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 8.01. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.31. First support is the 62%
retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 7.65 3/4.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s
rally crossing at 7.26 1/2.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 20-cents at 8.24 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it
extends this month’s decline. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends the decline off the late-November
high, the 50% retracement level of this year’s rally
crossing at 8.12 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81 1/2 would confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.52. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81
1/2. First support is today’s low crossing at 8.24 1/2.
Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year’s
rally crossing at 8.12.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 12 1/4-cents at 8.69.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it
extends the decline off November’s high. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s
night session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off the late-November high, the 62%
retracement level of this year’s rally crossing at 8.54 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 9.12 3/4 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 8.91 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 9.12 3/4. First support is
today’s low crossing at 8.67 1/2. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 8.54.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed down 17 1/4-cents at 14.18 1/2.

March soybeans closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might
be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.54 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has
been posted. If March renews last week’s decline, November’s
low crossing at 13.56 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.54
1/4. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 15.01
1/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 13.97
3/4. Second support is November’s low crossing at 13.56.

March soybean meal closed down $4.20 at $428.40.

March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday and the low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
renews last week’s decline, November’s low crossing at
405.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 439.70 would signal that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 439.70. Second resistance is
December’s high crossing at 457.90. First support is last
Thursday’s low crossing at 423.20. Second support is
November’s low crossing at 405.50.

March soybean oil closed down 65-pts. at 48.70.

March soybean closed lower due to spillover weakness from
wheat on Wednesday ending a two-day bounce off last
Thursday’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning
bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.19 are needed
to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends
this month’s decline, November’s low crossing at 47.35 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 50.19. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 51.85. First support is last
Thursday’s low crossing at 47.92. Second support is November
’s low crossing at 47.35.

LIVESTOCK

February hogs closed down $0.10 at $87.45.

February hogs closed lower due to light profit taking on
Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month’s rally. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
February extends this month’s rally, November’s high
crossing at 88.25 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.81 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 87.77. Second resistance is
November’s high crossing at 88.25. First support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 85.81. Second resistance is
last Tuesday’s low crossing at 84.45.

February cattle closed up $0.55 at 133.77.

February cattle closed higher on Wednesday and the high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If February extends this month’s rally, last
February’s high crossing at 135.90 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
132.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Wednesday’s high crossing at
134.40. Second resistance is last February’s high crossing
at 135.90. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 133.07. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 132.00.

January feeder cattle closed up $0.57 at $152.07.

January Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might
be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at
150.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If January extends the aforementioned rally, the 62%
retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 155.56
is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Tuesday’s high crossing at 154.60. Second resistance is the
62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at
155.56. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 150.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
145.05.

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee close higher on Wednesday as it consolidates
some of this year’s decline. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-
term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 15.51 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off
October’s high, weekly support crossing at 12.90 is the next
downside target.

March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this
month’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional
weakness is possible near-term. If March extends the
aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the
June-September rally crossing at 22.25 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
24.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday and the low-
range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March renews the rally off last week’s low,
December’s high crossing at 19.94 is the next upside target.
If March renews this year’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at
17.38 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed higher on Wednesday extending the rally
off November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off November’s low, the reaction
high crossing at 77.52 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.66 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted.


Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an
explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any
trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal
to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is
up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any
traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has
said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity
futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX
AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand
your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly
reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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