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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 5

Dec 06, 2012

Wednesday Evening, December 5-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.37 at
$130.52 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Trading has turned choppy. Cattle bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $131.80. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $129.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $131.00 and then at
$131.50. First support is seen at $130.00 and then at
today’s low of $129.77. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.77 at $149.05 today.
Prices closed near the session high on more short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$150.60. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the November low of $146.85. First resistance is
seen at $149.50 and then at $150.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $148.15 and then at this week’s low of
$147.82. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

February lean hogs closed up $0.12 at $85.65 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The hog
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading and the higher volatility at higher price
levels is also a warning signal that a market top is in
place. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at the November contract high of $88.25. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $84.00.
First resistance is seen at $86.00 and then at $86.32.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $85.15 and then
at $84.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were up 4 1/4 cents at 7.56
1/4 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session
high. Trading has turned choppy and sideways recently.
Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the October high of $7.75 3/4. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $7.35. First
resistance for March corn is seen at today’s high of $7.59
1/4 and then at this week’s high of $7.64. First support is
seen at today’s low of $7.50 1/4 and then at this week’s
low of $7.46 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

January soybeans were up 23 cents at $14.78 1/2 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near the session high and
hit a fresh four-week high today. Soybean bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However,
the bulls are gaining upside momentum and my bias is that
the downside is limited in beans at present price levels.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing January prices
above psychological resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $14.00.
First resistance is seen at $14.85 and then at $15.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $14.53 1/2 and then
at this week’s low of $14.36. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March soybean meal was up $5.30 at $438.40 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high and hit a fresh
four-week high today. More short covering and bargain
hunting were seen. Meal bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $450.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$415.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$439.70 and then at $445.00. First support is seen at
$435.00 and then at today’s low of $432.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

March bean oil was up 95 points at 51.48 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high and hit a
fresh four-week high today. The bean oil bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but the
bears are gaining upside near-term technical momentum. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 49.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.51 cents and then
at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 51.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 50.45 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 3 3/4 cents at $8.60 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are down near the lower boundary of the
recent trading range, which suggests prices are likely to
see more upside strength coming. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$8.95 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $8.45. First resistance is seen at $8.65
and then at this week’s high of $8.77 1/4. First support
lies at this week’s low of $8.51 1/2 and then at $8.45.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat was up 6 1/4 cents at $9.08 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on
short covering and bargain hunting. HRW bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $9.40. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $8.85. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.10 3/4 and then at $9.20. First support
is seen at this week’s low of $8.98 and then at $8.85.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March oats were up 12 cents at $3.97 today in late trading.
Prices were nearer the session high and hit a fresh six-
week high today. Bulls gained fresh upside momentum today
and saw a bullish upside “breakout” from a recent choppy
trading range. Oats bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $3.78 1/4. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $4.05. First support lies at $3.93 and then at $3.90.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.00 and then
at $4.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 8 points at 19.52 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering
in a bear market. Sugar bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 20.03 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 18.66 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 19.67 cents and then at this week’s high of
19.94 cents and then at 20.03 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 19.28 cents and then at last week’s low
of 19.04 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March coffee closed up 75 points at 149.10 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh
contract low early on. Short covering in a bear market was
featured today. The coffee bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 160.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 145.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 150.00 cents and then at
this week’s high of 153.15 cents. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of 146.35 cents and then at 145.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed down $19 at $2,425 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit a fresh two-week low
on some more profit taking from recent gains. Prices Monday
hit a nine-week high. The cocoa bulls and bears are now
back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
this week’s high of $2,466. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
$2,322. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,466
and then at $2,500. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,415 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March cotton closed up 31 points at 73.22 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today on some short
covering and bargain hunting. Cotton bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. However, prices
are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 75.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 71.28 cents. First resistance is seen
at 73.50 cents and then at 74.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 72.43 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January orange juice closed up 145 points at $1.2505 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. FCOJ bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bullish
pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the September high of $1.3010. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.1700. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of $1.2710 and then at the
November high of $1.2950. First support is seen at today’s
low of $1.2230 and then at last week’s low of $1.2050.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up $0.40 at $335.60 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. The lumber bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $325.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $350.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $338.10 and then at $340.00. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $332.70 and then at
$330.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $2.10 an ounce
at $1,693.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and hit another fresh four-week low on more technical
selling and on mildly bearish “outside markets”--a firmer
U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices. Gold bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but have faded and need to show fresh power soon. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of $1,757.10. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the November low of $1,674.70. First resistance is seen
at $1,700.00 and then at today’s high of $1,708.30. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,686.00 and then at
$1,680.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures closed up $0.137 an ounce at $32.945
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
faded a bit and need to show more power soon. Bulls do
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of $34.49 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $32.50. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $33.30 and then at $33.50. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $32.585 and then at $32.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 285 points at 368.40 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh six-week high. Bulls have gained good upside
near-term technical momentum recently and have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 375.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 355.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 370.00 cents and then at 372.50
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 365.10 cents
and then at this week’s low of 363.35 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $0.64 a barrel
at $87.86 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
as trading remains choppy on the daily chart. Crude oil
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid
technical resistance at $92.00 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
November low of $84.53. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $89.05 and then at this week’s high of $90.33.
First support is seen at today’s low of $87.46 and then at
$87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

January heating oil closed down 134 points at $2.9906
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh two-week low. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at
$3.0000 and then at today’s high of $3.0291. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.9788 and then at $2.9500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 470 points at
$2.6420 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh two-week low. Bulls and bears are now
back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $2.7627. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at $2.6200. First
resistance is seen at $2.6750 and then at $2.7000. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.6365 and then at
$2.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January natural gas closed up 15.0 cents at $3.689 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a fresh
nine-week low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Some colder
weather moving into the U.S. is bullish for nat gas. Bulls
and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.80. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.719 and then at $3.75. First support is
seen at $3.60 and then at $3.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 26 points at 1.3088 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today and did hit another fresh six-week
high early on. The Euro bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
1.3155. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2900. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.3142 and then at 1.3155. Next support is seen at
1.3059 and then at 1.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 82 points at 1.2149
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep nine-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2345. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2000. First resistance is seen
at 1.2200 and then at this week’s high of 1.2249. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2134 and then at
last week’s low of 1.2088. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 1 point at 1.0820 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The
Swissy bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the October high
of 1.0874. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.0675. First resistance is seen at the November high of
1.0842 and then at 1.0874. First support is seen at 1.0800
and then at today’s low of 1.0776. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 17 points at 1.0373
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit a fresh two-month high early on. Mild profit taking was
seen today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the September high of 1.0470. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of 1.0203. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0403 and then at
1.0470. Next support is seen at 1.0331 and then at 1.0300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The March Canadian dollar closed up 13 points at 1.0063
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh four-week high today. Bulls and bears are now back on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at the November high of 1.0095. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
.9919. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0071
and then at 1.0095. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 1.0024 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The March British pound closed down 15 points at 1.6087
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on some
mild profit taking. Prices Tuesday hit a four-week high.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6165.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the October low of
1.5913. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.6126 and then at the November high of 1.6140. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.6025 and then at
1.5983. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 14 points at 79.97
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Prices did hit another fresh six-week low early
on. The bears have the near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of 81.70. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the October low of 79.20. Next resistance lies
at 80.10 and then at 80.53. First support is seen at
today’s low of 79.78 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 3/32 at 150 7/32 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh two-week
high. Bulls have the overall technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 147 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 151 10/32. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 150 21/32 and then at 151 even. First
support is seen at today’s low of 149 27/32 and then at 149
15/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 6.5 (32nds) at 133.25.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 134.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at the November low of 131.24.5. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 133.29.5 and then at
134.00.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 133.16.0
and then at 133.11.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. A heavier slate of U.S. economic data
Wednesday provided little impetus for the stock indexes.
Friday’s U.S. jobs report may be a market mover, but that
report will likely be skewed by the super storm that hit
the U.S. east coast a few weeks ago and therefore be less
market-sensitive. The focus of the U.S. market place
remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending
cuts that is fast approaching. U.S. lawmakers are still
jawboning on the matter, with the market place paying less
attention to the politicians’ rhetoric. While the market
place presently perceives odds are higher than not that
there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers
to avoid the fiscal cliff, the overall situation has been a
bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities
and stock markets. Traders and investors are starting to
look ahead to next week’s last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting
of the year, on December 10 and 11. The “Operation Twist”
program ends and the FOMC members must decide whether to
extend the bond-buying program. Many believe the Fed will
continue to purchase U.S. Treasuries and implement “QE4” at
next week’s meeting. In overnight news, Asian stocks
rallied on news that Chinese government officials have said
they want to stimulate their economy by implementing more
construction projects. Also, China’s purchasing managers
index showed further expansion in November. There was more
dour economic news coming out of the European Union
Wednesday, further suggesting that bloc is in recession.
Retail sales fell in October, while purchasing manager
surveys in the region showed private-sector business
activity declined in November, amid reduced consumer
spending. Meanwhile, tepid demand at a Spanish government
bond auction pushed Spanish bond yields up Wednesday.
However, the Spanish 10-year bond yield, at 5.33%, is still
below the critical 6% level that is deemed a danger point.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 28.25 at
2,636.25. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bears regained the slight near-term technical advantage
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 2,750.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,600.00. First
resistance is seen at 2,650.00 and then at today’s high of
2,679.25. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,623.00
and then at 2,611.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.30 at 1,406.80.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the November high of 1,431.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1,340.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,414.80 and
then at this week’s high of 1,423.90. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1,397.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,383.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 91 points at 13,024. Prices
closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh four-week
high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the November high of 13,225. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of 12,440. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,075 and
then at 13,100. First support is seen at 13,000 and then at
12,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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