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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 13

Dec 14, 2011

Tuesday Evening, December 13-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.15 at
$118.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a six-
month low. However, price action in the cattle market
Monday may have produced a bullish selling “exhaustion
tail,” whereby the sellers become exhausted at lower price
levels and the market rebounds well off the daily spike
low. Monday’s low of $116.90 is very strong chart support.
The cattle market bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $120.50. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at Monday’s
low of $116.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$119.40 and then at $120.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $118.45 and then at $118.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

March feeder cattle closed up $1.02 at $145.85 today.
Prices again closed near the session high today on short
covering after hitting a nearly three-month low on Monday.
Bulls have regained some upside technical momentum this
week. But prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at $147.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$143.17. First resistance is seen at $146.00 and then at
$146.50. First support is seen at $145.50 and then at
$145.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

February lean hogs closed down $0.10 at $86.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices Monday
hit a three-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $88.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $85.05. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $87.20 and then
at $87.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $86.05
and then at this week’s low of $85.70. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at $5.94
1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in
quieter trading. Tepid short covering in a bear market was
featured. The corn bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.16. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $5.75. First
resistance for March corn is seen at $6.00 and then at last
week’s high of $6.03 1/4. First support is seen at $5.90
and then at this week’s low of $5.85. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

January soybeans closed up 6 1/2 cents at $11.18 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Prices hit a fresh
14-month low Monday. Soybean bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $11.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below psychological support at $11.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.27 and then at
$11.37. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.06 1/4
and then at $11.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March soybean meal closed up $3.10 at $287.30 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today on more short covering
after hitting a 17-month low on Monday. Meal bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$296.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $275.00. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $289.40 and then at $290.20. First support is seen
at $285.00 and then at today’s low of $282.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

March bean oil closed up 6 points at 49.78 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more
tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
51.60 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of 48.78 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.16 cents and
then at 50.50 cents. First support is seen at 49.50 cents
and then at this week’s low of 49.09 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents at $6.02 1/2
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices Friday hit a
contract low. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $6.32 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $6.09 and then at $6.20. First support
lies at today’s low of $5.93 1/4 and then at this week’s
low of $5.87 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 3 3/4 cents at $6.56 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Tepid short
covering in a bear market was featured. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of $6.88. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.61
and then at $6.72. First support is seen at last week’s low
of $6.50 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

March oats closed up 2 3/4 cents at $3.09 1/2 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Oats bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below psychological support at the contract low of $2.84
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $3.22 1/2. First support lies at today’s
low of $3.05 1/2 and then at $3.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.11 1/2 and then at $3.15.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 20 points at 23.49 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on shot
covering in a bear market. Trading in sugar has turned
choppy recently. Sugar bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 24.25 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 22.71 cents. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 23.89 cents and then at 24.25 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 23.20 cents and
then at last week’s low of 22.99 cents and then at 22.71
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March coffee closed up 145 points at 222.50 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in
a bear market. Prices Monday hit an 11-month low. Coffee
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
235.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 210.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 224.50 cents and then at 227.60 cents.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 220.20 cents
and then at 217.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March cocoa closed up $74 at $2,255 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and saw more short covering.
Prices Monday hit a contract low. Price action this week
has scored a bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar
chart, which is an early clue that a market low is in
place. The cocoa bears do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,350. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
Monday’s contract low of $1,983. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $2,265 and then at $2,300. First support
is seen at $2,200 and then at today’s low of $2,175.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March cotton closed up 15 points at 87.31 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
12-month low. Cotton bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 93.93 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
85.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 86.63
cents and then at 86.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 88.22 cents and then at 89.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

January orange juice closed up 210 points at $1.6835 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Chart damage has been
inflicted recently. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $1.7250. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at
$1.6000. First resistance is seen at $1.7000 and then at
$1.7100. First support is seen at $1.6750 and then at
today’s low of $1.6465. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January lumber futures closed down $0.10 at $229.60 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. The lumber bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage as trading
has turned very choppy. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $218.20. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $241.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $232.10 and
then at $235.00. First support is seen at $227.50 and then
at $225.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $5.00 an ounce
at $1,663.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and hit a fresh seven-week low. A stronger U.S.
dollar index pressured gold today. Gold bulls have faded
badly recently and near-term chart damage has been
inflicted. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1,681.70 and then at $1,700.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1,654.40 and then at $1,650.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March silver futures closed up $0.258 an ounce at $31.26
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
short covering from recent selling pressure. The U.S.
dollar index was stronger again today, which did limit the
upside in silver. Silver prices have been trending gently
lower in a choppy fashion for six weeks. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of $33.74 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $30.74. First resistance is seen at
$31.50 and then at today’s high of $32.04. Next support is
seen at this week’s low of $30.92 and then at $30.72.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 230 points 344.10 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh two-week low. The stronger U.S. dollar index
today weighed on copper prices. Copper bears have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of 367.40 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of 321.85 cents.
First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 355.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 342.90 cents
and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed up $2.15 a barrel at
$99.94 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were
supported by Iran doing some saber-rattling with its
military. The bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and regained some upside momentum today. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at the November high of $103.37 a barrel. The next near-
term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at last week’s low of $97.36. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $101.25 and then at $102.00. First support
is seen at $99.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

January heating oil closed up 289 points at $2.9252 in a
big trading range today. Prices closed nearer the session
low but hit a fresh four-week high early on. Bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.8500. First resistance
lies at $2.9500 and then at $2.9750. First support is seen
at $2.9000 and then at this week’s low of $2.8835 and then
at $2.8500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 533 points at
$2.6162 today. Prices closed near mid-range in a big
trading range today. Bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $2.6777.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $2.5000. First resistance is
seen at $2.6500 and then at $2.6777. First support is seen
at $2.6000 and then at this week’s low of $2.5476.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

January natural gas closed up 2.3 cents at $3.277 today.
Prices produced closed nearer the session high and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices scored a
contract low Monday. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.00. First resistance is seen
at $3.30 and then at $3.40. First support is seen at
Monday’s contract low of $3.217 and then at $3.15.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 164 points at 1.3036 today. Prices closed near
the session low again today and hit a fresh 11-month low.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage
and gained more power today. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.3400. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.3000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3100 and then at 1.3200.
Next support is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.2950.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 17 points at 1.2850
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field, but
the bears have gained some downside momentum this week.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.3000. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.2812. First resistance is seen at
1.2900 and then at this week’s high of 1.2919. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2849 and then at
1.2812. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 106 points at 1.0590
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 10-month low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
downside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1058. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
1.0650 and then at today’s high of 1.0729. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0576 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 67 points at .9890
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Bears regained the slight near-term
technical advantage today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at last week’s high of 1.0268. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9700. First resistance is
seen at 1.0000 and then at today’s high of 1.0057. Next
support is seen at today’s low of .9875 and then at .9850.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The March Canadian dollar closed down 73 points at .9648
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit
another fresh two-week low. Bulls have faded recently.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at last week’s high of .9923. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
.9485. First resistance is seen at .9700 and then at
today’s high of .9752. First support is seen at today’s low
of .9643 and then at .9600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March British pound closed down 114 points at 1.5452
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.5758. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the November low
of 1.5415. First resistance is seen at 1.5500 and then at
today’s high of 1.5614. First support is seen at 1.5415 and
then at the October low of 1.5267. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 78 points at 81.00
today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh
10-week high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and have regained upside momentum
recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 82.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 78.25.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 81.10 and then at
81.50. First support is seen at 80.58 and then at 80.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 27/32 142 31/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh
two-week high on fresh safe-haven buying amid the sell off
in the stock market. Bond market bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of 139
24/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 145 8/32. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 144 even. First
support is seen at 142 even and then at today’s low of 141
10/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 7.0 (32nds) at 130.13.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh
three-week high today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the November high of 130.20.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 128.20.0. First resistance is seen at
130.20.0 and then at the October high of 130.22.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 129.27.5 and then at this
week’s low of 129.21.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today and near their daily lows as traders deemed
this afternoon’s FOMC meeting statement a bit bearish as
there were no hints of any further monetary stimulus
upcoming.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 22.50 at
2,268.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh two-week low. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the October high of 2,408.75. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of 2,135.75. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,322.00 and then
at the December high of 2,344.75. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,255.00 and then at 2,225.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 9.30 at 1,220.00.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
October high of 1,288.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the November low of 1,147.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1,243.50 and then at this week’s
high of 1,254.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,212.80 and then at 1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 48 points at 11,895 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
12,500. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 11,700.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 11,950 and then at
12,000. First support is seen at today’s low of 11,830 and
then at 11,750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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