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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 28

Dec 29, 2011

Wednesday Evening, December 28-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.10 at
$123.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
in quieter trading. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for the cattle market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. The cattle bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $124.35. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $120.25. First
resistance is seen at $123.50 and then at this week’s high
of $123.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $122.85
and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed up $0.07 at $150.35 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh six-week
high. Feeder bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above technical
resistance at the November high of $150.87. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $146.50.
First resistance is seen at $150.87 and then at $151.50.
First support is seen at $150.00 and then at this week’s
low of $149.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

February lean hogs down $0.35 at $85.40 today. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for the hog market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower.
Hog bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$87.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the December low of $82.62. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of $86.05 and then at today’s high of
$86.50. First support is seen at $85.00 and then at $84.60.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 8 cents at $6.41
1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
hit another fresh six-week high. Recent hot and dry weather
in South American corn regions, and more of the same in the
forecast is bullish for corn. The key “outside markets” were
in a bearish posture for the corn market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. Yet, corn posted
solid gains anyway, which is another clue of the underlying
strength in the corn market. The corn bulls now have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below major psychological support at
$6.00. First resistance for March corn is seen at today’s
high of $6.46 1/4 and then at $6.50. First support is seen
at $6.35 and then at today’s low of $6.30 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

March soybeans closed down 1 3/4 cents at $12.07 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did
hit a fresh six-week high early on. The key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for the soybean market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower.
Selling interest in beans was limited by bry and hot
weather in South American soybean regions. Soybean bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
However, the bean bulls have gained good upside technical
momentum recently to suggest a market low is in place. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $12.50 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below technical support at last week’s low
of $11.42. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$12.18 3/4 and then at $12.25. First support is seen at
$12.00 and then at today’s low of $11.93. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

March soybean meal closed up $1.50 at $313.20 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven-
week high. Meal bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field, but the bulls are gaining upside
momentum to suggest a market low is in place. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$295.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$315.80 and then at $317.50. First support is seen at
$310.00 and then at today’s low of $308.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

March bean oil closed down 10 points at 52.13 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw mild profit-
taking pressure. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were sharply lower. Bean oil bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the November high of 53.25 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.50
cents and then at this week’s high of 52.67 cents. First
support is seen at 52.00 cents and then at this week’s low
of 51.47 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents at $6.50 1/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
seven-week high. More short covering and bargain hunting
were featured today. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for the wheat market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. Yet, wheat scored
gains anyway, which is another bullish clue for the wheat
market. Wheat bulls and bears are now back on a level near-
term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
$6.88 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.56 and then at
$6.65. First support lies at today’s low of $6.41 1/4 and
then at $6.32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents at $6.99 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week high. The market saw more short covering and
bargain hunting. Bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.25. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.60. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $7.04 1/2 and then at $7.10. First
support is seen at $6.90 and then at this week’s low of
$6.81. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

March oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $3.16 1/2 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Oats bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below major psychological support at $3.00. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of $3.22 1/2. First support lies at today’s low of
$3.14 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $3.13 1/2. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.18 1/2 and then at
$3.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 44 points at 23.17 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh three-week high early on. Prices also
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart
today. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture
for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were sharply lower. Sugar bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and regained some downside momentum
today. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the December high of 24.25 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 22.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 23.50 cents and then at last week’s high of 23.86
cents. First support is seen at 23.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 22.81 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March coffee closed up 400 points at 226.85 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two-
week high on more short covering in a bear market. The key
“outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the coffee
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply
lower. Yet, coffee posted solid gains anyway, which is a
clue that a market low is in place. Coffee bears do still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 232.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
212.35 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last
today’s high of 229.30 cents and then at 230.00 cents.
First support is seen at 225.00 cents and then at 222.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cocoa closed down $95 at $2,121 a ton. Prices closed
near the session low today. The key “outside markets” were
in a bearish posture for the cocoa market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. Cocoa bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained
fresh downside momentum today. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,274. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $1,983. First resistance is seen at $2,150
and then at $2,175. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,118 and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

March cotton closed up 277 points at 90.68 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Short covering and bargain hunting were
featured today. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for the cotton market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes were sharply lower. Yet, cotton posted solid
gains, which is a clue that there is underlying strength in
the cotton market and that a market low is in place. Cotton
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at the December
high of 93.93 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at the December low of 84.35
cents. First support is seen at 90.00 cents and then at
89.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
91.91 cents and then at 92.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

March orange juice closed down 295 points at $1.6700 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-
week high early on. Prices also scored a bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for the FCOJ market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of $1.7530. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.6400. First resistance
is seen at $1.6800 and then at $1.6900. First support is
seen at $1.6600 and then at today’s low of $1.6510.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March lumber futures closed up the limit of $10.00 at
$264.10 today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high. The lumber
bulls have gained good upside momentum recently, including
more today. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $250.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of $266.20. First resistance is seen at $266.20 and
then at $270.00. First support is seen at $262.00 and then
at $260.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $42.50 an
ounce at $1,553.00 today. Prices closed near the session
low and hit a fresh three-month low today in surprisingly
active holiday trading. A strong U.S. dollar index, weak
Euro and lower crude oil prices today pressured gold. More
serious near-term technical damage was inflicted. Prices
are also in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective is
to produce a close above psychological resistance at
$1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below major technical support at the
September low of $1,543.30. First resistance is seen at
$1,562.50 and then at $1,575.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,550.90 and then at $1,543.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

March silver futures closed down $1.67 an ounce at $27.07
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh three-month low in active trading. The key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for the silver market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower.
Fresh chart damage was inflicted in silver today. Silver
prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $29.22 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major technical support at the September low of $26.185.
First resistance is seen at $27.50 and then at $28.00. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $26.845 and then at
$26.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 535 points 335.55 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the copper
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply
lower. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below major psychological
support at the November low of 323.25 cents. First
resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 344.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
335.15 cents and then at 332.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed down $1.84 a barrel
at $99.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower stock indexes
pressured crude today. Crude oil bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. However, there is stiff overhead
resistance in the market once prices get over the $100.00
mark. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong
technical resistance at the November high of $103.28 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $97.00. First resistance
is seen at $100.00 and then at $101.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $99.11 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

February heating oil closed down 150 points at $2.9009
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.9500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of $2.7859. First resistance lies at today’s
high of $2.9329 and then at this week’s high of $2.9434.
First support is seen at today’s low of $2.8905 and then at
$2.8618. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 373 points at
$2.6437 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $2.7560. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $2.5000. First resistance is seen at
$2.6750 and then at this week’s high of $2.7075. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.6325 and then at
$2.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

February natural gas closed down 2.0 cents at $3.13 today.
Prices produced closed near mid-range and closed at a fresh
contract low close. Bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.40. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.00. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $3.219 and then at $3.25. First
support is seen at the contract low of $3.10 and then at
$3.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 137 points at 1.2946 today. Prices closed near
the session low today and hit a fresh 11-month low. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
gained fresh downside momentum today. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 1.3224. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2750. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3000 and
then at 1.3050. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2924 and then at 1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 14 points at 1.2853
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.3000. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2800. First resistance is seen
at 1.2900 and then at today’s high of 1.2918. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1.2833 and then at 1.2800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 104 points at 1.0625
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1058. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of
1.0501. First resistance is seen at 1.0700 and then at
today’s high of 1.0750. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0607 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

The March Australian dollar closed down 83 points at 1.0000
today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored
a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of
1.0268. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
December low of .9761. First resistance is seen at 1.0050
and then at last week’s high of 1.0119 and then at 1.0200.
Next support is seen at today’s low of .9980 and then at
.9900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 61 points at .9744
today. Prices closed near the session low today and did hit
a fresh three-week high early on. Prices also scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the December high of .9923.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of .9573. First resistance is seen at .9800
and then at today’s high of .9858. First support is seen at
.9700 and then at .9675. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed down 220 points at 1.5437
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh downside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of 1.5761. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the December low of 1.5394. First resistance is seen at
1.5500 and then at 1.5550. First support is seen at 1.5394
and then at 1.5300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 78 points at 80.92
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
regained some upside momentum today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of 81.41. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 79.55. Next resistance lies at today’s high
of 81.02 and then at 81.41. First support is seen at 80.50
and then at today’s low of 80.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 23/32 at 144 5/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bulls
needed to show some more power soon and they did it today
on fresh safe-haven buying interest. Bond market bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 141 28/32 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 145 8/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 144 18/32 and then at
145 even. First support is seen at 143 even and then at
today’s low of 142 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 20.0 (32nds) at 130.18.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
regained upside near-term technical momentum today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the December high
of 131.14.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 129.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 130.23.0 and then at 131.00.0. First support is
seen at 130.08.0 and then at 130.00.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly lower today in active but low-volume holiday
trading on some fresh European Union sovereign debt
worries.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 25.00 at
2,259.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the December high of
2,344.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 2,135.75. First resistance is seen at
2,275.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,296.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,253.75 and then at
2,225.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 15.70 at 1,244.50.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Prices
poked to a fresh three-week high early on. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the December high of 1,268.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the December low of 1,195.50.
First resistance is seen at 1,268.00 and then at the
November high of 1,275.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1,243.10 and then at 1,232.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 138 points at 12,081 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 12,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 11,665. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 12,150 and then at 12,200.
First support is seen at today’s low of 12,075 and then at
12,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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