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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--December 29

Dec 30, 2011

Thursday Evening, December 29--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers
worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S.
futures markets.

(NOTE: I was out of the office this afternoon, so my friend and fellow trader/analyst
Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think
you'll benefit and enjoy his work, too.--Jim)

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates
some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last
week’s low, December’s high crossing at 2339.50 is the next upside target.
If March renews the decline off this month’s high, the reaction low crossing
at

2190.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high
crossing at 2294.75. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at
2339.50. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at 2204.25. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 2190.25.

The March S&P 500 index closed higher due to short covering on Thursday
as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s rally, October’s high crossing at 1282.40 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
1236.25 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 1264.30. Second resistance is October’s high
crossing at 1282.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
1236.25. Second support is the November 30th gap crossing at 1195.50.

The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s
decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow
extends this month’s rally, the 87% retracement level of the May-October
decline crossing at 12,271 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 12,067 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 12,328. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing
at 12,271. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,067.
Second support is last Monday’s low crossing at 11,735.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed up 2/32’s at 144-19.

March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week’s rally.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this week’s rally, September’s high crossing at 146-12 is the
next upside target. If March renews the decline off this month’s high,
December’s low crossing at 139-24 is the next downside target. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 144.23. Second resistance is
September’s high crossing at 146-12. First support is last Friday’s low
crossing at 141-28.
Second support is this month’s low crossing at 139-24.

ENERGY MARKETS

February crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If February extends the rally off this month’s low,
December’s high crossing at 102.56 is the next upside target. If February
renews the decline off November’s high, the 50% retracement level of the
October-November rally crossing at 89.46 is the next downside target. First
resistance is December’s high crossing at 102.56. Second resistance is
November’s high crossing at 103.28. First support is the 38% retracement
level of the October-November rally crossing at 92.73. Second support is the
50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.46.

February heating oil closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 291.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Friday’s trading begins. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
291.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If
February renews the decline off November’s high, the 87% retracement
level of the October-November rally crossing at 273.18 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.60.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 299.06. First support is last
Monday’s low crossing at 278.59. Second support is the 87% retracement
level of the October-November rally crossing at 273.18.

February unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of
Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If February extends this month’s rally, November’s high
crossing at 273.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 260.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted.
First resistance is November’s high crossing at 273.26. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 275.60. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 260.05. Second support is this month’s low crossing at
247.95.

February Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday renewing this year’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February
extends this year’s decline, monthly support crossing at 2.409 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.295
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 3.242. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 3.295. First support is today’s low crossing at
3.001. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.409.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last
week’s low. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October’s low, the 62%
retracement level of the 2010-2011-decline on the weekly continuation chart
crossing at 82.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 80.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 81.41. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2010-2011-decline on the
weekly continuation chart crossing at 82.89. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 80.09. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 78.62.

The March Euro closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday as
it consolidates some of this year’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, the
75% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally on the weekly continuation
chart crossing at 126.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 131.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 131.71. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 135.50. First
support is today’s low crossing at 128.69. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally on the weekly continuation chart
crossing at 126.39.

The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, October’s low
crossing at 1.5267 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.5574 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5574.
Second support is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1.5761. First support is
today’s low crossing at 1.5350. Second support is October’s low crossing at
1.5267.

The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher due to short covering on
Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and
the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October’s high,
weekly support crossing at .10422 is the next downside target. Closes above
the reaction high crossing at .10839 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10737. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10839. First
support is this month’s low crossing at .10501. Second support is weekly
support crossing at .10422.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday and the high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and
the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week’s low, December
’s high crossing at 99.23 is the next upside target. If March renews this
month’s decline, November’s low crossing at 94.85 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 98.58. Second
resistance is December’s high crossing at 99.23. First support is this month
’s low crossing at 95.73. Second support is November’s low crossing at
94.85.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday while extending the
trading range of the past five weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today’s
close above the 20-day moving average crossing at .12869 tempers the near-
term bearish outlook. If March extends today’s rally, the reaction high
crossing at .13018 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off
November’s high, October’s low crossing at .12609 is the next downside
target. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at .12918. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at .13108. First support is the reaction
low crossing at .12812. Second support is October’s low crossing at .12609.

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold closed lower on Thursday extending the decline off
September’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends
this month’s decline, July’s low crossing at 1482.60 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1648.80 are needed to
confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s high
crossing at 1643.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1648.80. First support is today’s low crossing at 1523.90. Second
support is July’s low crossing at 1482.60.

March silver closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s
high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011-rally crossing at 25.527 is
the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing
at
30.321 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.321. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.300. First support is today’s low
crossing at 26.145. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2010-
2011-rally crossing at 25.527.

March copper closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
344.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
renews this month’s decline, the 75% retracement level of October’s rally
crossing at 320.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 344.03. Second resistance is December’s high
crossing at 367.40. First support is this month’s low crossing at 323.25.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of October’s rally crossing at
320.71.

GRAINS

March Corn closed down 4 1/2-cents at 6.38.

March corn posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the August-
December decline crossing at 6.57 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.03 3/4 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level
of the August-December decline crossing at 6.57 1/2. Second resistance is
November high crossing at 6.76 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 6.13 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 6.03 3/4.

March wheat closed down 6-cents at 6.45 1/4.

March wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the rally off this month’s low. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s rally, the 25% retracement level of the February-
December decline crossing at 6.81 1/4 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.10 1/4 would signal
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high
crossing at 6.56. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the
February-December decline crossing at 6.81 1/4. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 6.10 1/4. Second support is this month’s low
crossing at 5.77 1/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 6.98.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below
the 25% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 7.03
1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the August-
December decline crossing at 7.39 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.66 3/4 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high
crossing at 7.04 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
August-December decline crossing at 7.39 3/4. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 6.66 3/4. Second support is this month’s low
crossing at 6.50.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up down 7 3/4-cents at 8.55 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as
it consolidates some of the rally off this month’s low. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends this month’s rally, November’s high crossing at 8.93 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.34
1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 8.73 1/2. Second resistance is November’s high
crossing at 8.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
8.34 1/4. Second support is December’s low crossing at 8.05.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed down 11-cents at 11.97.

March soybeans closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the August-
December decline crossing at 12.46 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20-day moving average
crossing at 11.50
1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 12.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 12.46 1/2.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.68 1/4. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.50 1/4.

March soybean meal closed down $3.30 at $310.80.

March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of
this week’s rally but remains above the 25% retracement level of the
August-December decline crossing at 308.10. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the August-December decline
crossing at 323.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday’
s high crossing at 315.80. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of
the August-December decline crossing at 323.40. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 301.80. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 294.60.

March soybean oil closed down 64-pts. at 51.52.

March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this
month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s rally, the
38% retracement level of the February-December decline crossing at 53.49
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 50.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 52.67.  Second resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the February-December decline crossing at 53.49.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.41. Second
support is this month’s low crossing at 48.71.

LIVESTOCK

February hogs closed down $1.58-cents at $83.98.

February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of last
week’
s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
86.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If
February renews this month’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the
2010-2011-rally crossing at 81.38 is the next downside target. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.22. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 89.30. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 83.20. Second support is this month’s low crossing at 82.62.

February cattle closed down $0.80 at 122.35.

February cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally
off this month’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If February extends this month’s rally, November’s high crossing at
126.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 120.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 124.35. Second resistance is
November’s high crossing at 126.30. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 120.87. Second support is the reaction low crossing at
120.15.

January feeder cattle closed down $0.33 at $146.87.

January Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of
this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If January extends this month’s rally, November’s high crossing at 149.92
is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
144.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is last Friday’s high crossing at 147.75. Second resistance is November’s
high crossing at 149.92. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 145.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.68.

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally
off last week’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that a low
might be in or is near. Wednesday’s close above the 20-day moving average
has opened the door for a test of this month’s high crossing at 23.89. If
March renews this year’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the
2009-2001 rally crossing at 20.42 is the next downside target.

March cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday’s decline
below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below last Monday’s low crossing at 20.65 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off this month’s low, the
25% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 23.93 is the next
upside target.

March sugar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday and the high-
range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastic and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible
near-term. If March renews the decline off October’s high, the reaction low
crossing at 21.46 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off
this month’s low, December’s high crossing at 24.25 is the next upside
target.

March cotton closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 89.07. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 93.93 is the next
upside target. If March renews this year’s decline, weekly support crossing
at 82.69 is the next downside target.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my
Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading
accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you
potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you
want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about
futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not
for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before
you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your
financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering
into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required
to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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