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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 13

Feb 14, 2013

Wednesday Evening, February 13--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing
from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I was out of the office today. My friend and fellow
trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a
bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and enjoy his
work, too. --Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above
the 75% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at
2760.81. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of the September-
November decline crossing at 2804.15 is the next upside target. Closes
below the reaction low crossing at 2709.00 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
2781.75. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-November decline crossing at 2804.15. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 2709.00. Second support is the January 2nd gap
crossing at 2665.00.

The March S&P 500 closed lower due to light profit taking on Wednesday
as it consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are
neutral to bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are
possible. If March extends the rally off November’s low, weekly
resistance crossing at 1526.50 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 1497.62 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 1521.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at
1526.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1497.62.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1457.00.

The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday consolidating
some of Tuesday’s rally. Stock indexes were mixed today as the markets
continue to evaluate the president's State of the Union message from
last night. Growth in retail sales slowed to 0.1% in January following
an increase of 0.5% in December following a payroll tax increase on
American consumers to begin the year. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that short-term
gains are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
13,865 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
the Dow extends the rally off November’s low, the
2007 high crossing at 14,198 is the next upside target. First resistance
is Tuesday’s high crossing at 14,039. Second resistance is monthly
resistance crossing at 14,198. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 13,865. Second support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 13,852.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed down 24/32’s at 142-16.

March T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading
range of the past two weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March renews this winter’s decline, weekly support
crossing at 139-14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-04 are needed to confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 144-04. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 146-17. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at 142-
05. Second support is weekly support crossing at 139-14.

ENERGY MARKETS

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday due to an increase inventories
in the weekly petroleum status report released this morning. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Wednesday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If
March renews the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of
the September-November decline crossing at 99.78 is the next upside
target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 94.97 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is this month’s high
crossing at 98.24. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
September-November crossing at 99.78. First support is Monday’s low
crossing at 94.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the
November-February rally crossing at 93.47.

March heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of
this winter’s rally but remains above broken resistance marked by last
September’s high crossing at 321.00. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends the rally off December’s low, last March’s high
crossing at 331.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 312.46 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at
325.75. Second resistance is last March’s high crossing at 331.32. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 319.37. Second support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.46.

March unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter’s
rally, weekly resistance crossing at 321.83 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 295.43 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last today’s
high crossing at 308.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing
at 321.83. First support is the reaction low crossing at 298.25. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 295.43.

March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates
some of the decline off last Wednesday’s high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing at 3.100 is the next
downside target. Closes above last Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.459
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
last Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.459. Second resistance is January’s
high crossing at 3.646. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 3.207.
Second support is January’s low crossing at 3.100.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates
some of Tuesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November-January
downtrend line would open the door for a possible test of January’s high
crossing at 80.99. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
79.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 80.59. Second resistance is
January’s high crossing at 80.99. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 79.85. Second support is this month’s low crossing
at 78.91.

The March Euro closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidates some of this month’s decline. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, the reaction
low crossing at 132.62 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-
day moving average crossing at 134.94 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
134.94. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 137.15. First
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 133.56. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 132.62.

The March British Pound closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the
75% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 1.5598 as it extends
this winter’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this year’s decline, the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally
crossing at 1.5478 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.5767 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 1.5767. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
1.5874. First support is today’s low crossing at 1.5520. Second support
is the 87% retracement level of 2012’
s rally crossing at 1.5478.

The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it
consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10873. The
mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10873 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter’s rally,
weekly resistance crossing at .11119 is the next upside target. First
resistance is this month’s high crossing at .11090. Second resistance is
weekly resistance crossing at .11119. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at .10873. Second support is January’s low crossing at
.10657.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on
Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday’s
high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when Thursday ’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January’s high, the
62% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 98.35 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
100.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.03. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 100.85. First support is
January’s low crossing at 98.89. Second support is the 62% retracement
level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 98.35.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are
turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or
is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10938 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March
extends the decline off September’s high, monthly support crossing at
.10532 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at .10755. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10938. First support is Monday’s low
crossing at .10588. Second support is monthly support crossing at
.10532.

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed lower on Wednesday extending this week’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If April extends the decline off January’s high, January’s low crossing
at 1627.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1671.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1671.10. Second resistance is the October-November downtrend line
crossing near 1688.30. First support is January’s low crossing at
1627.90. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-October
rally crossing at 1604.60.

March silver closed lower on Wednesday and poised to extend this week’s
decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low crossing at
29.240 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 31.566 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 32.485. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.875. First support is
Tuesday’s low crossing at 30.580. Second support is January’s low
crossing at 29.240.

March copper closed slightly lower on Wednesday and the low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 371.28 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off
November’s low, October’s high crossing at 382.90 is the next upside
target. First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 379.25. Second
resistance is October’s high crossing at 382.90. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 371.28. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 364.05.

GRAINS

March Corn closed down 3/4-cents at 6.95 1/2.

March corn closed lower for the ninth day in a row on Wednesday as it
extended this month’s decline. Today's ethanol numbers were better in
the weekly petroleum status report with stocks decreased by 600,000 to
19.5 million barrels, and production up 15 to 789,000 barrels per day.
Ethanol production continues to track very close to USDA projected
levels. A late round of end-user-buying surfaced, which helped to temper
some of today’s losses. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 6.86 1/4 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.22
1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.22 1/2. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-January decline
crossing at 7.41 3/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 6.87 1/4.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at
6.86 1/4.

March wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 7.35 1/2.

March wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
bounced off the 75% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.25
3/4. Warmer and drier weather has moved back into the Plains, which
helped to underpin today’s short covering bounce. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends last week’s decline, the 87% retracement
level of 2012’s rally crossing at 6.88 3/4 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.67 1/4 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.67 1/4. Second resistance is
January’s high crossing at 7.99 3/4. First support is today’s low
crossing at 7.22 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 6.88 3/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 7.80 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday
as it consolidated some of the decline off November’s high. Today’s low
spiked below the 62% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.77
before end-user buying materialized to trigger today’s short covering
rebound. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the 75%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.19
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.04. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 8.19. First support is today’s low
crossing at 7.74. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2012’s
rally crossing at 7.38 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up 7-cents at 8.23.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday
after spiking below the 75% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing
at 8.15 1/2 in early trading. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins to trade.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month ’s decline, the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally
crossing at 7.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.52 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 8.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.52
1/4. First support is today’s low crossing at 8.09. Second support is
the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.79.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed up 2 1/4-cents at 14.23.

March soybeans closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it
consolidates some of the decline off last week’s high. Tight supplies
and concerns over South American weather continue to support bean
prices, however; the overall size of the South American crop is
pressuring price. South American beans are moving into the market and
U.S. shipments are likely to back off with their large crop coming to
market. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low crossing
at 13.51 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 14.62 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
14.62 3/4. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 14.98.
First support is today’s low crossing at 14.04 1/2. Second support is
January’s low crossing at 13.51 1/2.

March soybean meal closed down $2.20 at $408.10.

March soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week’s
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low crossing
at 392.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 425.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
422.40. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
425.50. First support is today’s low crossing at 406.00. Second support
is January’s low crossing at 392.40.

March soybean oil closed up 56-pts. at 51.66.

March soybean posted a key reversal up due to short covering on
Wednesday consolidating some of this month’s decline. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below today’s low crossing at 50.56 would confirm that the intermediate-
term trend has turned bearish while opening the door for a test of
January’s low crossing at 49.12. Closes above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 52.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.16. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 53.57. First support is
today’s low crossing at 50.56. Second support is January’s low crossing
at 49.12.

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $0.20 at $85.80.

April hogs closed lower on Wednesday extending the decline off
November’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this
month’s decline, the 62% retracement level of the May-November rally
crossing at 84.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 87.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s gap crossing
at 87.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
87.88. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 85.50. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-November rally
crossing at 84.56.

April cattle closed down $0.55 at 129.40.

April cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this year’s decline.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If April extends this month’s decline, last June’s
low crossing at 127.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 131.35 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 131.35. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 133.65. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 128.30.
Second support is last June’s low crossing at 127.55.

March feeder cattle closed down $1.90 at $141.35.

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year’s
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when
Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this year’s decline, weekly support
crossing at 138.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 147.18 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 146.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 147.18. First support is today’s low crossing at 140.72.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 138.48.

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off
January ’s high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the contract
low crossing at 13.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 14.65 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September’s high,
last June’s low crossing at 20.65 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.10 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close set the
stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this year’s decline, the 75% retracement
level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.42 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March cotton closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 81.22 confirming that a short-term top has been
posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends
today’s decline, minor support crossing at 78.97 is the next downside
target. If March renews this winter’s rally, the 62% retracement level
of the 2012-decline crossing at
86.50 is the next upside target.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an
explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any
trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal
to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is
up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any
traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has
said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity
futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX
AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand
your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly
reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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