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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 14

Feb 15, 2013

Thursday Evening, February 14--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing
from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I was out of the office today. My friend and fellow
trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a
bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and enjoy his
work, too. --Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Thursday as it
consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the September-November
decline crossing at 2760.81. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally off December’s low, the 87% retracement level of
the September-November decline crossing at 2804.15 is the next upside
target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2709.00 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s
high crossing at 2781.75. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level
of the September-November decline crossing at 2804.15. First support is
the reaction low crossing at 2709.00. Second support is the January 2nd
gap crossing at 2665.00.

The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off
November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that
additional short-term gains are possible. If March extends the rally off
November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 1526.50 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1500.44 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Wednesday’s high crossing at 1521.80. Second resistance is weekly
resistance crossing at 1526.50. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1500.44. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 1457.00.

The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. Stock indexes
were mixed today as disappointing news from Europe offset any positive
from employment news. First time claims for unemployment were down
27,000 from last week to 341,000. Europe saw its third consecutive
quarter with declining growth in the 4th quarter of 2012 and all were
worse than their 3rd quarter numbers. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-
term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13,890 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If the Dow extends the rally off November’s low, the 2007 high
crossing at 14,198 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 14,039. Second resistance is monthly
resistance crossing at 14,198. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 13,890. Second support is last Thursday’s low
crossing at 13,852.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed up 29/32’s at 143-17.

March T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while
extending the trading range of the past two weeks. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and
the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March renews this winter’s decline, weekly
support crossing at 139-14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-32 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 143-32. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 146-17. First support is last Monday’s low crossing at
142-05. Second support is weekly support crossing at 139-14.

ENERGY MARKETS

March crude oil closed higher on Thursday and the mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December’s
low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline
crossing at 99.78 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday’s low
crossing at 94.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is this month’s high crossing at 98.24. Second
resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-November
crossing at 99.78. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 94.97.
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February
rally crossing at 93.47.

March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above
broken resistance marked by last September’s high crossing at 321.00.
The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
December’s low, last March’s high crossing at 331.32 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.63 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last
Friday’s high crossing at 325.75. Second resistance is last March’s high
crossing at 331.32. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 320.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
313.64.

March unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the rally
off November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
winter’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 321.83 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.28 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 313.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing at 321.83. First support is the reaction low crossing at
298.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 297.28.

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday renewing the decline
off last Wednesday’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high,
January’s low crossing at 3.100 is the next downside target. Closes
above last Wednesday’s high crossing at 3.459 are needed to confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday’s
high crossing at 3.459. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at
3.646. First support is today’s low crossing at 3.135. Second support is
January’s low crossing at 3.100.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday and above the November-
January downtrend line crossing near 80.36 confirming that the short-
term trend has turned up. The door is open for a test of January’s high
crossing at 80.99. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
79.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 80.71. Second resistance is
January’s high crossing at 80.99. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 79.89. Second support is this month ’s low crossing
at 78.91.

The March Euro closed lower on Thursday renewing this month’s decline.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this
month’s decline, the November-January uptrend line crossing near 132.64
is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 134.71 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.71. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 137.15. First support is
today’s low crossing at 133.17. Second support is the November-January
uptrend line crossing near 132.64.

The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday and tested the 87%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 1.5478 as it extends this
winter’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are diverging but bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s decline,
last May’s low crossing at 1.5360 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5742 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1.5663. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1.5742. First support is today’s low crossing
at 1.5471. Second support is last May’s low crossing at 1.5360.

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10878. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Today’s close below the 20-day moving
average confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the
door for a possible test of January’s low crossing at .10657. Closes
above the 10-day moving average crossing at .10940 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at .10940. Second resistance is this month’s high
crossing at .11090. First support is today’s low crossing at .10818.
Second support is January’s low crossing at .10657.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this
week’s short covering rebound. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 99.96 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. If March renews the decline off January’s high, the 62%
retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 98.35 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 99.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 100.85.
First support is January’s low crossing at 98.89. Second support is the
62% retracement level of the 2011-2012-rally crossing at 98.35.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish
hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at .10912 are needed to confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off
September’s high, monthly support crossing at .10532 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
.10854. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.10912. First support is Monday’s low crossing at .10588. Second support
is monthly support crossing at .10532.

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed lower on Thursday extending this week’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January’s high,
January’s low crossing at 1627.90 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1668.80 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1668.80. Second resistance is the October-November
downtrend line crossing near 1686.70. First support is January’s low
crossing at 1627.90. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the
May-October rally crossing at 1604.60.

March silver closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s decline.
The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low crossing at 29.240
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 31.515 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.515. Second
resistance is January’s high crossing at 32.485. First support is
today’s low crossing at 30.210. Second support is January’s low crossing
at 29.240.

March copper closed slightly higher on Thursday and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling
that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 371.98 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November’s low,
October’s high crossing at 382.90 is the next upside target. First
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 379.25. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 382.90. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 371.98. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 364.05.

GRAINS

March Corn closed down 3/4-cents at 6.94 3/4.

March corn closed fractionally lower for the tenth day in a row on
Thursday as it extended this month’s decline. This morning's export
sales numbers were lackluster with net sales of 8.87 million bushels of
old crop corn and new crop sales of 2.33 million bushels. Shipments for
last week were 15.44 million bushels, which continues to leave lag the
needed levels to meet USDA projections. Ethanol numbers were up slightly
yesterday, but are running at 90% level of last year’s pace. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the reaction low
crossing at 6.86 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 7.20 3/4 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 7.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement
level of the August-January decline crossing at 7.41 3/4. First support
is Wednesday’s low crossing at 6.87 1/4. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 6.86 1/4.

March wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 7.32.

March wheat closed lower on Thursday but remains above the 75%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.25 3/4. Export sales for
old crop wheat were 23.9 million bushels and 2 million bushels of new
crop sales. Shipments for last week were 21.2 million bushels, bringing
numbers up to seasonal levels. Lower prices for old crop wheat are
beginning to bring buyers into the market slowly. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of
2012’s rally crossing at 6.88 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.64 3/4 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 7.64 3/4. Second resistance is January’s high
crossing at 7.99 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 7.22
1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally
crossing at
6.88 3/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/4-cents at 7.75.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the
decline off November’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold
but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high,
the 75% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
8.15 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.97 3/4. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.15 1/2. First
support is today’s low crossing at 7.72 3/4. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.38 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 8.19 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday but remains above the
75% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 8.15 1/2 in early
trading. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when
Friday’s night session begins to trade. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month’s decline,
the 87% retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.79 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49
3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.34 1/2. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49 3/4. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 8.09. Second support is the 87%
retracement level of 2012’s rally crossing at 7.79.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed down 5-cents at 14.18.

March soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off
last week’s high. This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of
old crop beans at -4 million bushels with China canceling another sale.
New crop sales were 12.7 million bushels and shipments were off to 36.4
million bushels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
when Friday ’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low
crossing at 13.51 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 14.57 3/4 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 14.57 3/4. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing
at 14.98. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 14.04 1/2. Second
support is January’s low crossing at 13.51 1/2.

March soybean meal closed down $0.90 at $407.20.

March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s
decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, January’s low
crossing at 392.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 423.60 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 421.80. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
423.60. First support is today’s low crossing at 402.70. Second support
is January’s low crossing at 392.40.

March soybean oil closed up 4-pts. at 51.70.

March soybean closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this
month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be
in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.05
would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below
Wednesday’s low crossing at 50.56 would confirm that the intermediate-
term trend has turned bearish while opening the door for a test of
January’s low crossing at 49.12. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 52.05. Second resistance is this month’s high
crossing at 53.57. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 50.56.
Second support is January’s low crossing at 49.12.

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $1.47 at $84.32.

April hogs gapped down and closed lower on Thursday extending the
decline off November’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April
extends this month’s decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-
November rally crossing at 82.80 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.72 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today’s gap
crossing at 85.75. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 86.62. First support is today’s low crossing at 84.05.
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-November rally
crossing at 82.80.

April cattle closed up $0.37 at 129.77.

April cattle posted a key reversal up on Thursday as it consolidated
some of this year’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.20 are needed to confirm
that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends this month’s
decline, last June’s low crossing at 127.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.20. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 133.65. First support is
today’s low crossing at 127.62. Second support is last June’s low
crossing at 127.55.

March feeder cattle closed down $1.32 at $142.67.

March Feeder cattle posted a key reversal up on Thursday as it
consolidates some of this year’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral
to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.90 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March
extends this year’s decline, weekly support crossing at 138.48 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 145.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 146.90. First support is today’s low crossing at 139.50.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 138.48.

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off
January’s high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain
neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, weekly
support crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 14.58 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September’s high,
last June’s low crossing at 20.65 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.04 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close set the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March extends this year’s decline, the 75%
retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
18.41 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March cotton closed higher on Thursday but remains below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 81.40 confirming that a short-term top has
been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends
Wednesday’s decline, minor support crossing at 78.97 is the next
downside target. If March renews this winter’s rally, the 62%
retracement level of the 2012-decline crossing at 86.50 is the next
upside target.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an
explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any
trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal
to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is
up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any
traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has
said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity
futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX
AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand
your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly
reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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