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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 19

Feb 20, 2013

Tuesday Evening, February 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.90 at
$129.55 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Cattle market bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, last Thursday’s and Friday’s upside
price action, including a bullish weekly high close on
Friday, does begin to hint that a market low is in place.
However, bulls will have to show fresh power very soon to
better support that notion. Prices are still in a three-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $132.00. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $127.62. First resistance is seen at
$130.00 and then at last week’s high of $130.55. First
support is seen at $129.00 and then at $128.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

April feeder cattle closed down $0.47 at $146.15 today.
Prices last week hit a contract low. The feeder bears have
the solid near-term technical advantage. However, I would
not be surprised if prices bottomed out last week, or are
close to it. The recent strong downside price action
appears to be a “washout” price move that usually puts in
market bottoms. The next upside price breakout objective
for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $149.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$143.30. First resistance is seen at $147.00 and then at
$147.30. First support is seen at $145.50 and then at
145.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

April lean hogs closed down $1.22 at $83.02 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 7.5-month
low. The hog bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. A choppy three-month-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $85.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $82.00. First
resistance is seen at $83.50 and then at $84.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $83.00 and then at
$82.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded down 5 1/2 cents at
$6.91 1/2 today in late trading. Prices were nearer the
session low today and poised to close at a fresh five-week
low close today. Corn prices could get no traction from
sharply higher soybean prices, and that’s another bearish
clue for corn. Corn bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.20. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $6.78. First resistance for
March corn is seen at $7.00 and then at $7.05. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.88 1/4 and then at
last week’s low of $6.85 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May soybeans were up 38 1/2 cents at $14.53 1/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
today and saw heavy short covering and bargain hunting.
Fresh demand for U.S. soybeans from China and dry weather
in Argentina soybean regions boosted soybeans today. If
prices can see good follow-through buying support this
week, then that would be a clue that a near-term market low
is in place and that prices can then trend sideways to
higher. Bean bulls and bears are now back on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $13.93 1/2.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.59 3/4 and
then at $14.75. First support is seen at $14.46 and then at
$14.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was up $14.50 at $423.40 today in late
trading. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart and
were trading nearer the daily high. Bulls gained fresh
upside near-term technical momentum today and are now back
on a level near-term technical playing field with the
bears. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $438.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $402.10. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $426.20 and then at $430.00. First support is seen
at $420.00 and then at $417.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

May bean oil was up 87 points at 52.88 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high. Bulls
have gained the light near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of 53.98 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
53.00 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen
at 52.50 cents and then at 52.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

May Chicago SRW wheat was down 11 cents at $7.37 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
today, scoring a bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart and were poised to close at a fresh 7.5-month low
close. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Wheat bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $7.75 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $7.52 1/2 and then at $7.60. First support lies at last
week’s low of $7.30 3/4 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat was down 11 1/2 cents at $7.77 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hit a fresh eight-month low today. HRW bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $8.00. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $7.50. First resistance is
seen at $7.85 and then at today’s high of $7.94. First
support is seen at today’s low of $7.74 and then at $7.65.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May oats were up 3 1/4 cents at $3.82 3/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high and hit a fresh
two-month high today. Oats bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.70. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.90. First support lies at
today’s low of $3.79 and then at $3.76 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.84 and then at
$3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 16 points at 17.90 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a two-plus-
year low. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 19.02 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 17.50
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 18.07
cents and then at 18.28 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 17.80 cents and then at Friday’s low of
17.67 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May coffee closed down 255 points at 137.65 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today, scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart and hit another
fresh contract low. The coffee bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 145.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 130.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at 140.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 142.60 cents. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of 137.60 cents and then at 135.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May cocoa closed down $23 at $2,121 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 8.5-month low.
The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $2,260. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,100. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,150
and then at $2,176. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,117 and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May cotton closed up 94 points at 84.13 cents today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-month high
today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 81.35
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 84.87
cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 83.06 cents and then at 82.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May orange juice closed down 505 points at $1.2475 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on heavy profit
taking after prices Friday hit a seven-week high. FCOJ
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
last week’s high of $1.3200. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the February low of
$1.1995. First resistance is seen at $1.2600 and then at
$1.2700. First support is seen at $1.2400 and then at
$1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March lumber futures closed down the $10.00 limit at
$389.80 today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $375.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$400.00. First resistance is seen at $395.00 and $397.00.
First support is seen at $385.00 and then at $381.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $4.70 an ounce at
$1,604.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and closed at a fresh 6.5-month low close. Serious near-
term technical damage has been inflicted recently. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Importantly, from a longer-term technical perspective, the
key level for traders and investors to watch is the
$1,500.00 level. No serious longer-term chart damage has
yet occurred in nearby gold futures. However, a drop below
the $1,500.00 level would begin to produce serious longer-
term chart damage, and then begin to call into question the
longer-term price uptrend that is still in place for gold.
The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $1,650.00. Bears' next near-term downside
breakout price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at $1,580.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1,618.80 and then at $1,627.90. First
support is seen at last Friday’s low of $1,596.70 and then
at $1,590.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

March silver futures closed down $0.439 an ounce at $29.41
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
six-month low today. March silver bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
today. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $29.00. First resistance is seen at $30.00 and then at
today’s high of $30.15. Next support is seen at today’s low
of $29.175 and then at $29.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 870 points at 365.00 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low as the bulls faded. Copper bulls still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 375.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at of
360.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 367.50 cents and
then at 370.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 364.45 cents and then at 362.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed up $0.51 a barrel at
$96.92 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The crude bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage but did fade a bit last Friday. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above major psychological
resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $95.00.
First resistance is seen at $97.50 and then at $98.00.
First support is seen at $96.00 and then at the February
low of $95.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

April heating oil closed down 163 points at $3.1856 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Profit taking was
featured. Prices last week hit a contract high. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-
month-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1000. First resistance
lies at $3.2000 and then at today’s high of $3.2125. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.1616 and then at
$3.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 155 points at
$3.1190 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh contract high early on. Prices also
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
If there is strong follow-through selling pressure on
Wednesday, then a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily
bar chart would be confirmed, which would be one early
technical clue that a market top is in place. The gasoline
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.20. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $3.0000. First
resistance is seen at $3.1500 and then at today’s contract
high of $3.1691. First support is seen at $3.1000 and then
at $3.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

April natural gas closed up 11.0 cents at $3.328 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Nat gas bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $3.505. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $3.15. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.336 and then at $3.387. First
support is seen at $3.25 and then at last week’s low of
$3.191. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 35 points at 1.3393 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today on a corrective bounce from recent
selling pressure. The Euro bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage but have faded recently. Prices are in
a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 1.3523. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.3250. First resistance for the Euro lies at
1.3459 and then at 1.3500. Next support is seen at last
week’s low of 1.3308 and then at 1.3250. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 12 points at 1.0694
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices
are hovering near the contract low. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a steep five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
There are still no early clues of a market bottom being
close at hand. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1000. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 1.0846 and then at 1.0900. First
support is seen at the contract low of 1.0588 and then at
1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 4 points at 1.0841 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
four-week low early on. Prices are in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The Swissy bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the February high
of 1.0986. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.0750. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0862 and then at 1.0900. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0804 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 63 points at 1.0333
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
However, they need to more power soon to keep it. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at the February high of
1.0435. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 1.0200. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 1.0353 and then at 1.0400. Next support is
seen at 1.0300 and then at today’s low of 1.0252. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

The March Canadian dollar closed down 46 points at .9875
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh 6.5-month low. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at .9750.
First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at today’s high
of .9936. First support is seen at today’s low of .9858 and
then at .9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March British pound closed down 88 points at 1.5424
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh 8.5-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5700. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5250. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.5506 and then at 1.5550. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.5412 and then at 1.5350. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 36 points at 80.54
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on a
corrective pullback. Prices Friday hit a five-week high.
The bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, the bulls have shown strength recently
to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
80.99. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at 79.40. Next resistance lies at last Friday’s high of
80.83 and then at 80.99. First support is seen at 80.30 and
then at 80.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 15/32 at 143 even today.
Prices closed near the session low today. T-Bond bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The better
risk appetite in the market place is a major bearish factor
for the U.S. Treasuries. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 142 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 144 16/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 143 26/32 and then at
144 6/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 142 30/32
and then at last week’s low of 142 9/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 6.5 (32nds) at 131.10.5
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the February high of 131.29.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 130.23.0. First resistance is seen at
131.16.0 and then at today’s high of 131.21.5. First
support is seen at today’s low of 131.09.5 and then at last
week’s low of 131.00.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage as the indexes are not far from their recent
highs. With China back in play after a week-long holiday
the market place is looking to the world’s second-largest
economy for raw commodity demand clues. There were reports
overnight that China’s centrally planned economy is seeing
some restrictions put on home financing due to higher
property prices, which leads to ideas China could tap the
brakes on its economic growth rate. In European news
overnight, the German ZEW economic expectations index hit a
three-year high in its latest February report. That’s
another clue that the European Union economy has turned the
corner toward better conditions ahead. Italian and Spanish
bond yields crept lower Tuesday following a well-received
Spanish debt offering.  European traders are anxiously
awaiting Italian elections beginning Sunday. The OECD
reported Tuesday that overall world economic growth in
developed countries contracted by 0.2% in the fourth
quarter of 2012—the first collective declined in three
years. The market place is awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s
release of the latest minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
FOMC meeting. These minutes in the past few months have
been market-movers.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 21.00 at 2,782.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at
a fresh 4.5-month high close today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
2,700.00. First resistance is seen at 2,790.00 and then at
2,800.00. First support is seen at 2,765.00 and then at
today’s low of 2,758.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 10.90 at 1,528.00.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh five-year high today. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. There are no early technical clues of
a market top being close at hand. The path of least
resistance for U.S. stock index prices remains sideways to
higher. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,550.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the February low of 1,490.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,528.70 and
then at 1,540.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,515.30 and then at 1,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 57 points at 14,005. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh
five-year high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the all-
time high of 14,270, basis nearby futures. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 13,600. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 14,020 and then at
14,050. First support is seen at today’s low of 13,975 and
then at 13,900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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