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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 27

Feb 28, 2013

Wednesday Evening, February 27-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.57 at $129.87
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. Cattle futures bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
A close on Friday at or near the weekly high would be a
clue that a market bottom is in place. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $130.55. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $125.90. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $130.25 and then at $130.55. First support
is seen at today’s low of $129.50 and then at $129.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

April feeder cattle closed up $0.35 at $144.37 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more tepid short
covering in a bear market. The feeder bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $146.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$142.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$144.82 and then at $145.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $143.87 and then at 143.35. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.57 at $81.00 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh
8.5-month low close. The hog bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. A choppy three-month-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$84.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$80.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $81.75
and then at this week’s high of $82.15. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $80.90 and then at $80.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded up 1/4 cent at
$6.95 today in late trading. Prices were near mid-range.
Corn bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. However, if the corn bulls and hold this
week’s low and see prices rally from here into the end of
the week, including a close Friday at or near the weekly
high close, then bulls would gain some fresh upside
technical momentum as a bullish double-bottom reversal
pattern could be forming on the daily bar chart, to suggest
a market bottom is in place. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $6.78 1/2.
First resistance for May corn is seen at $7.00 and then at
$7.10. First support is seen at $6.90 and then at $6.85.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

May soybeans were up 9 3/4 cents at $14.41 1/2 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Short covering supported the market today as there was some
fresh demand for U.S. soybeans from China announced by USDA
today. Bears still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above psychological resistance at $15.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $13.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $14.48 3/4 and then at this week’s high of
$14.53. First support is seen at this week’s low of $14.20
1/2 and then at $14.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May soybean meal was up $2.80 at $429.60 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bulls and bears are back on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the February high
of $443.90. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $415.00. First resistance comes in at
today’s high of $432.30 and then at $435.00. First support
is seen at $425.00 and then at $422.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

May bean oil was up 35 points at 49.74 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and did
hit another fresh two-month low early on today. Short
covering in a bear market was featured. Bean oil bears
still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of 48.40
cents. First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents and then at
Tuesday’s high of 50.50 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 49.27 cents and then at 49.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May Chicago SRW wheat was up 3 3/4 cents at $7.14 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit
an eight-month low. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Wheat bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$7.52 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.22 1/4
and then at $7.32. First support lies at today’s low of
$7.09 3/4 and then at this week’s low of $6.97 3/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May HRW wheat was up 2 1/2 cents at $7.44 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit
an eight-month low. HRW bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.90. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $7.51 3/4 and then at this week’s high
of $7.62. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.32
3/4 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May oats were up 1/2 cent at $3.72 1/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high today. Oats
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field as the bulls have faded recently. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at today’s low of
$3.58 1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.85. First support lies at $3.70 and then at today’s
low of $3.67. First resistance is seen at $3.75 and then at
$3.76 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed steady at 18.05 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The sugar bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of 19.02 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 17.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 18.19 cents and then at 18.28 cents. First support
is seen at this week’s low of 17.90 cents and then at 17.80
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May coffee closed down 30 points at 143.20 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today as prices hover
just above the recent contract low. The coffee bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 150.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 130.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 144.90
cents and then at 147.50 cents. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 140.55 cents and then at the contract
low of 137.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May cocoa closed down $2 at $2,123 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. Prices are hovering near last week’s
8.5-month low. The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $2,260. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,100. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,144 and then at this week’s high of
$2,156. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,108
and then at last week’s low of $2,102. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

May cotton closed up 274 points at 84.57 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh
9.5-month low today. The cotton bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside power
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 85.24 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the February low of 81.35 cents. First resistance is seen
today’s high of 84.76 cents and then at 85.24 cents. First
support is seen at 84.00 cents and then at 83.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May orange juice closed down 160 points at $1.2565 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more
profit taking. FCOJ bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the February high of $1.3200. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$1.2400. First resistance is seen at $1.2750 and then at
today’s high of $1.2870. First support is seen at $1.2500
and then at $1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May lumber futures closed down $3.90 at $375.90 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$365.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $390.00. First resistance is seen at $380.00
and then at this week’s high of $382.00. First support is
seen at $375.00 and then at this week’s low of $372.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down up $19.50 an
ounce at $1,596.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today as the market gave back much of Tuesday’s big
gains. There was more risk appetite in the market place
Wednesday, amid some stronger U.S. economic data, and that
helped to pressure the safe-haven gold market. Gold bears
reminded traders today they still have the near-term
technical advantage in gold. Gold prices are in a six-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the January low
of $1,627.90. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the February low of $1,554.40. First resistance is seen
at $1,600.00 and then at today’s high of $1,614.40. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1,592.60 and then at
Tuesday’s low of $1,583.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5

May silver futures closed down $0.355 an ounce at $28.965
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and gave
back all of Tuesday’s gains. May silver bears have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $30.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $28.315.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $29.495 and
then at $29.67. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$28.865 and then at this week’s low of $28.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 120 points at 357.10 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Tuesday hit a three-month low. Copper bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 365.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 359.50 cents and then
at 362.50 cents. First support is seen at 355.00 cents and
then at this week’s low of 353.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed up $0.27 a barrel at
$92.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
tepid short covering. Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low.
The crude oil bulls have faded recently and the bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close solid chart resistance at last week’s
high of $97.49 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $90.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $93.37 and then at
$94.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $91.92
and then at $91.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

April heating oil closed down 385 points at $2.9883 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh six-
week low today. Bulls are fading badly. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0800. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at the December low of $2.8900. First resistance
lies at $3.0000 and then at $3.0200. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2.9811 and then at $2.9675. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 854 points at
$3.1134 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
another fresh four-week low today. The gasoline bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The higher daily price
volatility has produced a bearish broadening pattern on the
daily bar chart and is an early warning signal that a
market top is in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.2500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$3.0000. First resistance is seen at $3.1500 and then at
$3.1800. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1000
and then at $3.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

April natural gas closed down 3.5 cents at $3.421 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and did hit a
fresh five-week high early on. Prices also scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Nat gas
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $3.67. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.25. First resistance is seen at
$3.50 and then at today’s high of $3.554. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $3.385 and then at $3.35.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 80 points at 1.3146 today. Prices closed near the
session high today and saw some short covering. The Euro
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
A four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 1.3444. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.3000. First resistance for the
Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3152 and then at 1.3200.
Next support is seen at 1.3100 and then at today’s low of
1.3057. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 30 points at 1.0854
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
bulls have gained some upside momentum to begin to suggest
that a market bottom is finally in place. Bears do still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.1200. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the contract low of 1.0600. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.1014 and then at 1.1075. First
support is seen at 1.0791 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

The June Swiss franc closed up 18 points at 1.0762 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering.
Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The Swissy bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0900.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of 1.0697. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0784 and then at 1.0800. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0735 and then at this week’s low of 1.0720.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 2 points at 1.0153
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did
hit a fresh four-month low early on. Bears have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at the February high of 1.0377. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0000. First
resistance is seen at 1.0203 and then at this week’s high
of 1.0236. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0103
and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The June Canadian dollar closed up 28 points at .9751
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering after hitting an eight-month low on Tuesday.
Prices are still in a steep seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at .9870. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at .9600. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of .9759 and then at
.9775. First support is seen at today’s low of .9708 and
then at this week’s low of .9685. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

The June British pound closed up 26 points at 1.5149 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a fresh
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5500. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5000. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 1.5209 and then at 1.5250. First support is seen at
the contract low of 1.5061 and then at 1.5000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 38 points at 81.77
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking after hitting a six-month high on Tuesday. The bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 83.000. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 80.500. Next
resistance lies at 82.00 and then at this week’s high of
82.24. First support is seen at 81.50 and then at this
week’s low of 81.370. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 13/32 at 143 23/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on some profit
taking from recent solid gains. The “risk on” day in the
market place Wednesday also was bearish for bonds and
notes. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of 140 23/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 145 even. First
resistance is seen at 144 even and then at 144 13/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 143 15/32 and then at 143
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 1.5 (32nds) at 131.15.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit another fresh two-month high early on. Some mild profit
taking was seen today. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 132.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 130.08.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.27.0 and then at 132.00.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 131.12.0 and then at
131.08.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
sharply higher today on a big “risk on” day in the market
place. Wednesday’s testimony on the U.S. economy to a U.S.
House committee by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
revealed little fresh news following his remarks to the
Senate on Tuesday. The central bank chief said U.S.
monetary policy will remain very accommodative for the
foreseeable future. He also said Tuesday there is no U.S.
equity bubble. Bernanke’s remarks have boosted the U.S.
stock market this week. Some fresh, upbeat U.S. economic
data released Wednesday also served to give traders and
investors some increased risk appetite for stocks.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 32.75 at 2,740.50
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 2,786.50. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,650.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,757.75 and then at this week’s
high of 2,764.50. First support is seen at 2,725.00 and
then at today’s low of 2,703.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 23.40 at 1,515.80.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the February high of 1,530.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the January low of 1,439.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,519.00 and
then at this week’s high of 1,524.30. First support is seen
at 1,500.00 and then at today’s low of 1,490.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 201 points at 14,060 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh five-
year high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the higher daily price
volatility at higher price levels has produced a bearish
broadening pattern on the daily chart and is an early
warning signal of a market topping process. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the all-time high of 14,270, basis
nearby futures. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
13,600. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
14,086 and then at 14,100. First support is seen at 14,000
and then at 13,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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