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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 28

Mar 01, 2013

Thursday Evening, February 28-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.10 at
$129.77 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Cattle futures bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. A close on Friday at or near the weekly
high would be a clue that a market bottom is in place. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $130.55.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $125.90. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $130.25 and then at $130.55. First
support is seen at $129.50 and then at $129.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

April feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $144.92 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The feeder bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $146.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$142.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$145.45 and then at $146.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $144.67 and then at 144.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

April lean hogs closed up $0.05 at $81.05 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did poke to a fresh 8.5-
month low. The hog bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. A choppy three-month-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $84.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $80.00. First
resistance is seen at $81.75 and then at this week’s high
of $82.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $80.80
and then at $80.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded up 9 cents at $7.04
1/4 today in late trading. Prices were near the session
high and hit a fresh two-week high today. Price action also
saw a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading
range at lower levels. If there is follow-through strength
and a bullish weekly high close on Friday, that would give
the bulls some fresh upside technical momentum to suggest
that a near-term market low is in place. A four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart was also negated today. A
bullish double-bottom reversal pattern also could be
forming on the daily bar chart, to also suggest a market
bottom is in place. Corn bulls' next upside price objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.20. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $6.78 1/2.
First resistance for May corn is seen at today’s high of
$7.06 and then at $7.10. First support is seen at $7.00 and
then at $6.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May soybeans were up 17 3/4 cents at $14.57 1/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
again today on more short covering and bargain hunting.
Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above psychological resistance at $15.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $13.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $14.67 3/4 and then at $14.75. First
support is seen at $14.50 and then at today’s low of
$14.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was up $8.60 at $437.20 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering and bargain hunting. Prices were poised to close
at a bullish monthly high close today. Bulls today regained
the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the February high
of $443.90. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $420.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $440.80 and then at
$443.90. First support is seen at $435.00 and then at
$432.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May bean oil was down 34 points at 49.33 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
poised to close at a bearish monthly low close today.
Spreaders have been selling bean oil and buying meal. Bean
oil bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of 50.75 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the December low of 48.40 cents. First resistance is seen
at 49.50 cents and then at today’s high of 49.87 cents.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.27 cents and
then at 49.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May Chicago SRW wheat was up 3 1/2 cents at $7.15 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw more
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit
an eight-month low. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Wheat bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$7.52 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.23 and then
at $7.32. First support lies at $7.09 3/4 and then at this
week’s low of $6.97 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May HRW wheat was up 8 1/4 cents at $7.51 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit an eight-
month low. HRW bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.90. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $7.62 and then at $7.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of $7.43 1/2 and then at
this week’s low of $7.32 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May oats were up 6 1/4 cents at $3.78 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls have regained
the slight near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$3.58 1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the February high of $3.93 1/2. First support lies at
$3.75 and then at $3.72 1/2. First resistance is seen at
$3.80 and then at today’s high of $3.84 3/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 37 points at 18.45 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh three-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up
on the daily bar chart. Good follow-through buying interest
on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near-term
technical momentum and it would also begin to suggest a
market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was at least
temporarily negated today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 19.02 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 17.67 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 18.59 cents and then at 18.75 cents. First
support is seen at 18.28 cents and then at 18.19 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May coffee closed down 105 points at 142.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today as prices hover
just above the recent contract low. A stronger U.S. dollar
index today was bearish for coffee. The coffee bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 150.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 130.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
144.90 cents and then at 147.50 cents. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 140.55 cents and then at the
contract low of 137.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May cocoa closed up $2 at $2,133 a ton. Prices closed near
mid-range again today. Prices are hovering near an 8.5-
month low. A stronger U.S. dollar index limited the upside
in cocoa today. The cocoa bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $2,260. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,100. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,146 and then at this week’s high of
$2,156. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,108
and then at last week’s low of $2,102. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

May cotton closed up 110 points at 85.48 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh
9.5-month high today. Prices also closed at a bullish
monthly high close today. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside power late this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 81.35 cents. First resistance is seen
today’s high of 85.95 cents and then at 86.50 cents. First
support is seen at 85.00 cents and then at 84.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May orange juice closed down 75 points at $1.2490 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more
profit taking. FCOJ bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the February high of $1.3200. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$1.2400. First resistance is seen at $1.2650 and then at
today’s high of $1.2765. First support is seen at $1.2400
and then at $1.2300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May lumber futures closed up $9.90 at $385.80 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $372.50. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of $399.90. First
resistance is seen at $387.50 and then at $390.00. First
support is seen at $382.00 and then at today’s low of
$380.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $16.90 an ounce
at $1,578.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
again today as the bears tighten their near-term grip on
the yellow metal. There has been better risk appetite in
the market place late this week, amid some stronger U.S.
economic data, and that has helped to pressure the safe-
haven gold market. Gold prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the February low of $1,554.40. First resistance is seen
at $1,590.00 and then at $1,600.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $1,574.30 and then at $1,570.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

May silver futures closed down $0.505 an ounce at $28.49
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh monthly low close today, which is another
bearish clue. May silver bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $29.495 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $28.315. First resistance is seen at $28.75
and then at $29.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$28.40 and then at $28.315. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 195 points at 354.75 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed
at a bearish monthly low close. Prices Tuesday hit a three-
month low. Copper bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 365.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 357.50 cents and then at 360.00
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 353.35
cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $0.61 a barrel at
$92.15 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
closed at a bearish monthly low close. Prices Tuesday hit a
two-month low. A firmer U.S. dollar index today helped to
pressure the crude oil market. The crude oil bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close solid chart resistance at last week’s
high of $97.49 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $90.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $93.18 and then at
$94.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $91.92
and then at $91.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

April heating oil closed down 236 points at $2.9602 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh seven-
week low today. Prices today also closed at a bearish
monthly low close. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of $2.8900. First resistance lies at $3.0000
and then at $3.0200. First support is seen at $2.500 and
then at $2.9400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 202 points at
$3.1265 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
did hit another fresh four-week low early on today. The
gasoline bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.2500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $3.0000. First
resistance is seen at $3.1500 and then at $3.1800. First
support is seen at $3.1000 and then at today’s low of
$3.0729. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

April natural gas closed up 6.6 cents at $3.50 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
bullish monthly high close today. Nat gas bulls and bears
are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $3.67. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.25. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $3.554 and then at $3.60. First support
is seen at this week’s low of $3.385 and then at $3.35.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 52 points at 1.3086 today. Prices closed near
the session low today. The Euro bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
1.3444. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.3172 and then at 1.3200. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.3030 and then at 1.3000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 51 points at 1.0791
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1200. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of 1.0600. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0876 and then at
1.0950. First support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 21 points at 1.0731 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today, hit a fresh
six-week low and closed at a bearish monthly low close
today. Prices are also in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The Swissy bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at this week’s high of 1.0832. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of 1.0697.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0777 and then
at 1.0800. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0715
and then at 1.0697. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June Australian dollar closed down 19 points at 1.0143
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a monthly low close. Prices Wednesday hit a four-
month low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0275. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0000.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0208 and then
at this week’s high of 1.0236. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.0103 and then at 1.0050. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 60 points at .9688
today. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit an eight-
month low and closed at a bearish monthly low close today.
Prices are also in a steep seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at .9870. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at .9600. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9760 and then at
.9775. First support is seen at today’s low of .9676 and
then at .9650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The June British pound closed up 31 points at 1.5171 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a fresh
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5500. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.5214 and then at 1.5300. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.5141 and then at the contract low of
1.5061. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 298 points at 82.170
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Prices
are hovering near a six-month high. The bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 83.000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at 80.500. Next resistance
lies at this week’s high of 82.240 and then at 82.500.
First support is seen at 82.000 and then at today’ low of
81.745. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 2/32 at 143 23/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 141 25/32. The next upside technical objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 145 even. First resistance is seen at 144
even and then at today’s high of 144 8/32. First support is
seen at today’s low of 143 15/32 and then at 143 even.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 2.5 (32nds) at 131.16.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 132.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.08.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
131.23.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.27.0. First
support is seen at 131.12.0 and then at 131.08.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes were
higher again late today on another “risk on” day in the
market place. The U.S. government’s likely inability to
agree on a taxing and spending plan by the March 1
sequestration deadline on Friday is being mostly ignored in
the world market place late this week. President Obama will
meet with congressional leaders Friday on the budget
matters. Traders and investors are becoming somewhat numb
to the ongoing squabbling in Washington, D.C. The European
Union and its sovereign debt problems have surfaced again
this week. The Italian elections failed to show a clear
winner as voters ostensibly rebuked present government
austerity measures. The head of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said Thursday
the Italian election gridlock will not significantly impact
the EU debt crisis and efforts to stabilize it. There were
Italian government debt auctions Tuesday and Wednesday that
were deemed successful, even though yields were a bit
higher. On Thursday, Spanish and Italian bond yields fell
slightly, in another positive sign the EU debt crisis is
now stable. The latest episode in the EU debt crisis
appears to be calming down just a bit as the week
progresses. European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said
Thursday he will continue to “preserve the integrity” of
the Euro currency. European stock markets were mostly
higher Thursday on better corporate earnings reports coming
out of Europe. The seemingly improved attitudes in the
market place, regarding the EU debt crisis, are also an
underlying bullish factor for stocks this week.

In late trading, the Nasdaq stock futures index was up
12.00 at 2,752.50 today. Prices were near mid-range. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 2,786.50. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,650.00. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 2,764.50 and then at 2,775.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,739.50 and then
at 2,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

In late trading, the S&P 500 futures index was up 4.20 at
1,520.00. Prices were near mid-range. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the February high of 1,530.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the January low of 1,439.30.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,524.30
and then at 1,530.00. First support is seen at 1,500.00 and
then at 1,490.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

In late trading, the Dow futures were up 65 points at
14,125 today. Prices were near the session high and hit
another fresh five-year high today. Prices were poised to
close at a bullish monthly high close today. The bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However,
the higher daily price volatility at higher price levels
has produced a bearish broadening pattern on the daily
chart and is an early warning signal of a market topping
process. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the all-
time high of 14,270, basis nearby futures. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 13,600. First resistance
in the Dow lies at 14,150 and then at 14,200. First support
is seen at today’s low of 14,030 and then at 14,000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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