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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Feb. 5

Feb 06, 2013

Tuesday Evening, February 5-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.02 at $132.30
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Cattle market
bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. However, a bull flag pattern has formed on
the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $133.65. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$131.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$132.70 and then at this week’s high of $133.10. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $131.95 and then at
$131.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.35 at $148.52 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The feeder bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage but
need to show fresh power soon to keep it. A bull flag
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $150.45. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $146.85.
First resistance is seen at $149.00 and then at today’s
high of $149.65. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $148.12 and then at 147.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.65 at $87.70 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The hog bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field, but
the bulls are now fading and need to show fresh power very
soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at last week’s high of $90.25. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of $86.90.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.00 and then
at $88.65. First support is seen at $87.50 and then at
$87.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures last traded down 6 3/4 cents
at $7.27 1/2 today in late trading. Prices were near mid-
range. Traders are awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply
and demand report. Corn bulls and bears are now back on a
level near-term technical playing field. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $7.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.14 1/2.
First resistance for March corn is seen at today’s high of
$7.35 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at today’s
low of $7.24 and then at $7.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

March soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents at $14.94 1/4 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were near the session high
and poised to close at a fresh seven-week high close today.
Dry and hot weather forecasts for Argentina soybean regions
boosted the bulls today. Traders are awaiting Friday’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report. Bean bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $14.15. First
resistance is seen at $15.00 and then at $15.08. First
support is seen at today’s low of $14.78 and then at $14.63
3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March soybean meal was up $3.70 at $438.00 today in late
trading. Prices were near the session high and hit another
fresh six-week high today. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $450.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $420.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $438.90 and then at
$440.00. First support is seen at $435.00 and then at
today’s low of $431.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March bean oil was down 27 points at 52.84 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and saw
profit taking from recent gains. Bean oil still bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend
is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 54.00
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
technical support at last week’s low of 51.60 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.22 cents and then
at last week’s high of 53.57. First support is seen at
today’s low of 52.68 cents and then at 52.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 9 cents at $7.54 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and hit a
fresh four-week low today. Wheat bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage and have regained some
downside momentum just recently. Traders are awaiting
Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $8.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of $7.36 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $7.66 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $7.74. First
support lies at $7.50 and then at $7.36 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 12 1/4 cents at $8.04 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hit a fresh four-week low today. HRW bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage and are gaining fresh
downside momentum. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of $8.52. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of $7.85 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $8.19 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $8.29 3/4.
First support is seen at $8.00 and then at $7.85 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March oats were up 5 cents at $3.64 3/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high today, scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart and were
poised to close at a fresh six-week high close. Oats bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.50. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75. First
support lies at $3.60 and then at today’s low of $3.57 1/4.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.67 and then
at last week’s high of $3.69 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 19 points at 18.54 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low again today. The
sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at 19.19 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the January low of 18.06 cents. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 18.89 cents and then at last
week’s high of 19.02 cents. First support is seen at 18.50
cents and then at 18.27 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

March coffee closed down 5 points at 144.30 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh four-week low. The coffee bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 150.80
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of 141.25 cents a pound. First resistance
is seen at 146.00 cents and then at 147.50 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 143.75 cents and then at
142.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

March cocoa closed up $56 at $2,248 a ton. Prices closed
near the session high today. Short covering in a bear
market was featured today. The cocoa bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $2,313. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $2,155. First
resistance is seen at $2,280 and then at $2,300. First
support is seen at $2,220 and then at $2,200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5

March cotton closed down 23 points at 81.51 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
profit taking from recent gains. The cotton bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are
awaiting Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at the January
high of 84.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 77.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 82.00 cents and then at this week’s
high of 82.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 80.79 cents and then at 80.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

March orange juice closed up 135 points at $1.2175 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. FCOJ bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting
Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.1250. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $1.2395 and then at $1.2500. First support is seen
at today’s low of $1.2040 and then at $1.1800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures closed up the $10.00 limit at $379.00
today. Bulls have quickly regained solid upside near-term
technical momentum to suggest that new for-the-move highs
are in the offing. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $360.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $388.00. First resistance is seen at
$385.00 and then at $388.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $374.00 and then at $371.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $2.80 an ounce at
$1,673.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
in choppy trading. Prices did hit a fresh two-week high
early on today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term
downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,653.20.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,687.00 and
then at $1,697.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,667.20 and then at this week’s low of $1,661.80.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

March silver futures closed up $0.124 an ounce at $31.84
today. Prices closed near mid-range. Silver bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage as a bullish
symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar
chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $32.485 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $30.745.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $32.115 and
then at last week’s high of $32.30. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $31.62 and then at this week’s low of
$31.385. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 25 points at 377.10 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Monday
hit a four-month high. Copper bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy three-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the September
high of 384.80 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at of 364.05 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 379.25 cents and then at 380.00
cents. First support is seen at 375.00 cents and then at
372.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $0.43 a barrel at
$96.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The crude
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective
for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $94.00. First resistance is seen at $97.00 and
then at $97.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$95.89 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March heating oil closed up 379 points at $3.1919 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh 4.5-month high. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the September high of $3.2100. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1000. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.2011 and then at $3.2100. First
support is seen at $3.1700 and then at this week’s low of
$3.1433. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 269 points at
$3.0384 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Prices last Friday hit a contract high. Gasoline bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.10. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.8750. First resistance is seen at
the contract high of $3.0663 and then at $3.0800. First
support is seen at $3.0000 and then at $2.9626. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

March natural gas closed up 10.9 cents at $3.424 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Short covering and
bargain hunting were featured today. Nat gas bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of $3.646. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the January low of $3.10. First resistance is seen at
$3.45 and then at $3.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $3.318 and then at this week’s low of $3.259.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 66 points at 1.3588 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today. Prices Friday hit a 14-month high.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 1.3750. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.3400. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.3602 and then at this week’s high of 1.3658. Next
support is seen at 1.3500 and then at today’s low of
1.3462. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 132 points at 1.0694
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another contract low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
There are still no early clues of a market bottom being
close at hand. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1100. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen
at 1.0800 and then at today’s high of 1.0866. First support
is seen at today’s contract low of 1.0683 and then at
1.0600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed up 1 point at 1.1016 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Prices
Friday hit a nine-month high. The Swissy bulls still have
the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1200. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0800. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.1027 and then at last week’s high of
1.1090. First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0973
and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 28 points at 1.0373
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and scored
a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of
1.0547. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 1.0281. First resistance is seen at 1.0410
and then today’s high of 1.0435. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0337 and then at last week’s low of
1.0327. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 19 points at 1.0029
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0100. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of .9889. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0042 and then at 1.0085. First support is
seen at today’s low of .9995 and then at .9950. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed down 103 points at 1.5656
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Prices also hit a fresh 5.5-month low today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh
downside momentum today. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.5500. First resistance is seen at 1.5700 and
then at 1.5750. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.5627 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed steady at 79.56 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices Friday
hit a contract low. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 80.27. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 78.50. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 79.81 and then at 80.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 79.149 and then at this week’s low of 79.17.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 19/32 at 142 28/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices Monday
hit a fresh contract low. T-Bond bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 142 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the January high
of 146 17/32. First resistance is seen at 143 even and then
at this week’s high of 143 28/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 142 21/32 then at the contract low of 142
5/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 7.0 (32nds) at 131.09.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Monday hit a fresh 4.5-month low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the January high of 132.17.5. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 130.10.5. First resistance is seen at
131.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.22.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 131.04.0 and then at
131.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage as the indexes are not far from their recent
highs. U.S. economic data today failed to move the markets
much. In overnight news, European stock markets and the
Euro currency were firmer despite news that Euro zone
retail sales fell sharply in December, at down 0.8% on the
month and down 3.4% on an annual basis. This data
underscores the European Union has a tough road of economic
recovery ahead. Other EU data released Tuesday did continue
to show slight improvement as the Euro Zone PMI rose to
48.6 in January from 47.2 in December. Escalating political
scandal in Spain has hit the local IBEX stock market
recently. Spanish bond yields have also been on the rise
recently. There are also concerns about an upcoming
election in Italy. Still, Spanish and Italian bond yields
are not near the critical 6% or above levels that prompted
such concerns just a few months ago. Italian bond yields
are presently around 4.4% and Spanish bond yields are near
5.25%. On Thursday the European Central Bank holds its
monthly meeting, including a press conference by ECB chief
Mario Draghi. Also later this week China will issue a fresh
batch of economic data, including inflation and trade
balance reports. The market place will closely scrutinize
the ECB meeting results and the data coming out of China.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 37.25 at 2,748.50
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy
trasding. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,675.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 2,764.00 and then
at the January high of 2,768.75. First support is seen at
2,725.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,709.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 12.60 at 1,506.00.
Prices closed nearer the daily high and hit another fresh
five-year high today. Bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,525.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,457.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,510.80 and then at 1,520.00. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 1,490.50 and then at 1,475.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed up 68 points at 13,913. Prices
closed near the session low today. Bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 14,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 13,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000.
First support is seen at 13,850 and then at this week’s low
of 13,810. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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