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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--February 15

Feb 16, 2012

Wednesday Evening, February 15-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.35 at
$128.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh contract high early on. Mild profit-
taking pressure was featured. Bulls still have solid upside
momentum on their side. Cash cattle market fundamentals
this week are viewed as very bullish. Cattle futures bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $130.00.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $126.70. First resistance is
seen at today’s contract high of $129.82 and then at
$130.00. First support is seen at $128.45 and then at
$128.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May feeder cattle closed up $0.22 at $159.95 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh contract
high. Feeder bulls have solid upside momentum and have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at $161.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $157.27. First resistance is seen at today’s
contract high of $160.40 and then at $161.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of $159.20 and then at $158.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.72 at $88.90 today. Prices
closed near the session low today. Hog market bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field as
trading has turned choppy. However, it’s likely that the
downside in hogs will be limited in the near-term by the
sharply higher cattle and feeder cattle futures prices. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
the February high of $90.75. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at $87.50. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $89.60 and then at last week’s high of
$90.20. First support is seen at $88.50 and then at $88.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 7 cents at $6.31
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. Bulls faded today and the specter of
the seasonal “February Break” price weakness has re-
emerged. Corn market bears today gained the slight near-
term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $6.56. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$6.25. First resistance for March corn is seen at $6.35 and
then at $6.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$6.29 and then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May soybeans closed up 6 1/4 cents at $12.68 3/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh 3.5-month high. Good export demand, including a fresh
sale to China announced today, and dry weather in South
American soybean regions have boosted soybeans. Soybean
bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have
gained upside momentum recently. Prices are in a five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $12.91 3/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $12.23 1/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $12.76 1/2 and then at $12.91 3/4. First
support is seen at today’s low of $12.56 1/2 and then at
$12.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

May soybean meal closed up $2.60 at $335.10 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 4/5-month high.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in meal and
have gained upside momentum just recently. Prices are in a
five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $323.40. First resistance comes in at
today’s high of $337.10 and then at $340.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of $331.20 and then at $329.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May bean oil closed up 33 points at 53.71 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh six-week high. The key “outside markets” were in a
mostly bullish posture for bean oil today, as the U.S.
dollar index was steady to weaker and crude oil prices were
higher. Bean oil bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of 54.15 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 52.27 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 53.80 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
First support is seen at 53.50 cents and then at today’s
low of 53.12 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $6.34 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh three-
week low today. Bears are gaining downside near-term
technical momentum. A big Australian wheat crop forecast
has helped to sink wheat futures this week. Wheat bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.70 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of $6.12 1/2. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.43 1/2 and then at
$6.50. First support lies at today’s low of $6.30 1/2 and
then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents at $6.77 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage and gained some fresh downside momentum today. A
bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $7.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of $6.60. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.87 1/4 and then at $6.95. First support
is seen at today’s low of $6.76 1/2 and then at $6.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May oats closed up 3 1/4 cents at $3.18 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Oats bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
major psychological support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$3.21. First support lies at today’s low of $3.14 1/2 and
then at $3.10 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $3.20 and then at $3.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 20 points at 23.58 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were in a mostly bullish posture for
sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was steady to weaker
and crude oil prices were higher. Sugar bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of 24.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the February low of 22.85 cents. First
resistance is seen at 23.72 cents and then at this week’s
high of 23.93 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 23.17 cents and then at 23.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

May coffee closed down 315 points at 203.00 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh 14-
month low today. Coffee bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and have gained fresh downside
momentum this week. However, the market is now well
overdone on the downside and due for at least a corrective 
upside bounce very soon. Coffee prices are in a choppy,
five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 215.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below major psychological support at 200.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 205.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 208.00 cents. First support is seen at
200.00 cents and then at 199.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

May cocoa closed up $130 at $2,400 a ton. Prices closed
near the session high again today on more short covering
and bargain-hunting buying interest. Cocoa bulls and bears
are now on a level near-term technical playing field as
bulls have gained good upside momentum this week. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the January high of $2,499. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$2,144. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,410
and then at $2,450. First support is seen at $2,363 and
then at $2,350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May cotton closed up 64 points at 93.48 cents today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw more short covering in
a bear market. The key “outside markets” were in a mostly
bullish posture for cotton today, as the U.S. dollar index
was steady to weaker and crude oil prices were higher.
Cotton bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
96.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 90.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 92.62 cents and then at last week’s low of
91.62 cents and then at 91.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 94.57 cents and then at 95.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

May orange juice closed up 165 points at $1.7885 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Some short covering was
featured today. Bulls have badly recently as it still looks
like a market top is in place. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.9000.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.7000. First resistance is seen at $1.8000 and then at
$1.8250. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$1.7440 and then at $1.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures closed down $3.40 at $263.00 today.
More profit-taking from recent strong gains was seen today
and the bulls are fading. The lumber bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to
show fresh power soon. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $255.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $276.20. First resistance is seen at
$265.00 and then at $268.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $259.80 and then at $257.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $11.60 an ounce at
$1,729.30 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as
bargain hunters stepped in to buy the recent dip. The key
outside markets were mostly bullish for gold today--the
U.S. dollar index was steady-weaker and crude oil prices
were higher. Gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but need to show more power soon to
suggest a near-term price uptrend can be restarted. Bulls'
next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the February high
of $1,765.90. Bears' next near-term downside price
objective is closing prices below psychological support at
$1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,739.20 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,720.30 and then at last week’s low of
$1,706.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March silver futures closed down $0.128 an ounce at $33.22
today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored
a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
The key outside markets were mostly bullish for silver
today--the U.S. dollar index was steady to weaker and crude
oil prices were higher. That did limit the downside in
silver. Silver bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices have been trading sideways for
three weeks. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $34.52 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $32.50. First resistance is seen
at $33.50 and then at this week’s high of $34.035. Next
support is seen at the February low of $32.985 and then at
$32.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 120 points 380.25 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking from recent gains. The key outside
markets mostly bullish for copper today--the U.S. dollar
index was steady weaker and crude oil and prices were
higher. Copper bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above major
psychological resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 375.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 385.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 387.25 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low
of 378.40 cents and then at the February low of 376.30
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $1.15 a barrel at
$101.89 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh four-week high. Crude oil bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained
some upside momentum recently. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $103.90 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
February low of $95.44. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $102.54 and then at $103.00. First support is seen
at $101.00 and then at today’s low of $100.61. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

March heating oil closed up 238 points at $3.1886 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the June 2011 high of
$3.2244. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.0800.
First resistance lies at $3.2000 and then at the February
high of $3.2224. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.1710 and then at this week’s low of $3.1454. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 242 points at
$3.0067 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did
hit another fresh nine-month high today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.9000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.0366 and then at $3.0500. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.9839 and then at $2.9607.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March natural gas closed down 9.4 cents at $2.438 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.844. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$2.289. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2.569 and then at the February high of $2.618. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $2.39 and then at
$2.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 17 points at 1.3077 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low again today. Bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3400. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3000. First resistance for
the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3192 and then at 1.3250.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.3045 and then at
the February low of 1.3028. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The March Japanese yen closed up 21 points at 1.2765 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
seven-week low early on. Bears still have downside near-
term technical momentum. The bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at this
week’s high of 1.2930. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the December low of 1.2699. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2794 and then at 1.2855. First support is
seen at 1.2742 and then at today’s low of 1.2716. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 12 points at 1.0840
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1100. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0750. First
resistance is seen at 1.0900 and then at 1.0941. First
support is seen at the February low of 1.0802 and then at
1.0750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The March Australian dollar closed up 63 points at 1.0659
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the contract
high of 1.0795. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0450. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0737 and then at 1.0795. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0629 and then at this week’s low of
1.0588. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The March Canadian dollar closed up 27 points at 1.0003
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
three-month-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the October
high of 1.0075. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at .9925. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0055 and then at 1.0075. First support is seen at
today’s low of .9988 and then at last week’s low of .9953
and then at .9925. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The March British pound closed up 47 points at 1.5700
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have
faded recently. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 1.5924. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5500. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5732 and then at 1.5768. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.5641 and then at
1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 2 points at 79.72
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit another fresh three-week high. Bulls have regained
some upside technical momentum and have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 80.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 78.00. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 79.86 and then at 80.00. First support is seen at
79.50 and then at today’s low of 79.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 10/32 at 143 8/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The bond market bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of 140 21/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 144 even. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 143 27/32 and then at 144 even. First
support is seen at today’s low of 142 29/32 and then at 142
16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 00.5 (32nds) at 131.16.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the recent all-time high
of 132.11.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at the January low of 129.26.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 131.24.5 and then at 132.00.0.
First support is seen at today’s low of 131.06.5 and then
at this week’s low of 130.28.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today on profit-taking pressure that was not
unexpected as prices have recently hit for-the-move highs.
The stock index bulls still have good upside near-term
technical momentum on their side. It’s those quiet,
unassuming price trends like those in the stock indexes at
present that are most likely to continue.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 18.50 at
2,557.50. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit yet another fresh 11-year high early on. Price action
today scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart. If there is good follow-through selling pressure on
Thursday, then a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily
bar chart would be confirmed, which would be one early clue
that a market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,625.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,500.00. First resistance is seen at 2,577.50 and then
at today’s high of 2,600.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,552.50 and then at 2,535.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 5.70 at 1,342.00.
Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a
fresh 9.5-month high early on. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the May 2011 high of 1,372.70. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,296.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,358.10 and then at 1,372.70. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,338.20 and then at
1,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed down 77 points at 12,763 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above major psychological resistance at 13,000. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of 12,250.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 12,800 and then at last
week’s high of 12,880. First support is seen at today’s low
of 12,735 and then at 12,700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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