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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--February 16

Feb 17, 2012

Thursday Evening, February 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.75 at $129.65
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh contract high. The key “outside markets” were in a
bullish posture by the close today, as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Bulls
have solid upside momentum on their side. Cash cattle
market fundamentals are viewed as bullish. Cattle futures
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$131.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $127.50. First resistance is seen at
$130.00 and then at today’s contract high of $130.25. First
support is seen at today’s low of $129.25 and then at
$128.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

May feeder cattle closed up $0.67 at $160.62 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh
contract high. Feeder bulls have solid upside momentum and
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above technical resistance at $162.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$158.50. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high
of $160.85 and then at $161.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $159.95 and then at $159.37. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed up $1.32 at $90.22 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture by the close today, as
the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
firmer. Cash hog market fundamentals have also turned more
bullish. Hog market bulls have gained the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a very choppy five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The sharply higher
cattle and feeder cattle futures prices recently are also
positive for hogs. The next upside price breakout objective
for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid
chart resistance at the February high of $90.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$87.87. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $90.40
and then at $90.75. First support is seen at today’s low of
$89.75 and then at $89.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 8 3/4 cents at $6.39
3/4 today. Prices closed near the session high today after
hitting another fresh three-week low early on. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for corn by the
close today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude
oil prices were firmer. There were also some good weekly
export sales for corn reported by USDA today. Corn market
bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical
playing field. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $6.56. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at today’s low
of $6.26. First resistance for March corn is seen at this
week’s high of $6.46 1/2 and then at $6.50. First support
is seen at $6.32 1/2 and then at today’s low of $6.26.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans closed down 3 3/4 cents at $12.65 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw mild
profit taking from recent gains. Prices Wednesday hit a
3.5-month high. Soybean bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $12.91 3/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $12.23 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $12.76 1/2 and then at $12.91 3/4. First support is
seen at today’s low of $12.54 and then at $12.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

May soybean meal closed down $1.60 at $333.50 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw mild profit taking.
Prices Wednesday hit a 4.5-month high. Bulls still have the
near-term technical advantage in meal. Prices are in a
five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $323.40. First resistance comes in at
this week’s high of $337.10 and then at $340.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $331.30 and then at
$329.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May bean oil closed down 28 points at 53.43 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit taking
from recent gains. Prices Wednesday hit a six-week high.
Bean oil bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of 54.15 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 52.27 cents. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of 53.80 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
First support is seen at 53.12 cents and then at today’s
low of 52.92 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents at $6.35 1/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering
in a bear market after hitting a fresh three-week low early
on today. A big Australian wheat crop forecast has helped
to sink wheat futures this week. Wheat bears have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.70 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $6.12 1/2. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $6.39 1/2 and then at $6.45.
First support lies at today’s low of $6.28 3/4 and then at
$6.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed up 13 1/2 cents at $6.91 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $7.00. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of $6.60. First
resistance is seen at $6.95 and then at $7.00. First
support is seen at $6.80 and then at this week’s low of
$6.76 1/2 and then at $6.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

May oats closed up 1/4 cent at $3.18 1/4 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Oats bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
major psychological support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$3.21. First support lies at today’s low of $3.15 3/4 and
then at $3.10 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $3.20 and then at $3.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 12 points at 23.69 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for sugar by
the close today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and
crude oil prices were firmer. Sugar bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
24.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the February low of 22.85 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 23.93 cents and then at 24.00
cents. First support is seen at 23.50 cents and then at
today’s low of 23.33 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

May coffee closed down 135 points at 201.20 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh 14-month
low. Coffee bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and have gained fresh downside momentum
this week. However, the market is now well overdone on the
downside and due for at least a corrective upside bounce
very soon. Coffee prices are in a choppy, five-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 215.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below major psychological support at 200.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 204.50 cents
and then at 208.00 cents. First support is seen at 200.00
cents and then at today’s low of 197.80 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

May cocoa closed up $8 at $2,399 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high again today on more short covering
and bargain-hunting buying interest. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for cocoa by the close
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were firmer. Cocoa bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field as bulls have gained good
upside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
$2,499. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $2,144. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2,420 and then at $2,450. First
support is seen at $2,363 and then at $2,350. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

May cotton closed up 23 points at 93.71 cents today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
in a mostly bullish posture for cotton by the close today,
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices
were firmer. Cotton bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 96.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 90.00 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 92.65 cents and then at last
week’s low of 91.62 cents and then at 91.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 94.00 cents and then
at this week’s high of 94.57 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

May orange juice closed down 55 points at $1.7845 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading.
Bulls have faded badly recently as it looks like a market
top is in place. The next upside price breakout objective
for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1.8720.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.7000. First resistance is seen at $1.8000 and then at
$1.8250. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$1.7440 and then at $1.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures closed down $1.60 at $261.40 today.
More profit-taking from recent strong gains was seen today
and the bulls are fading. The lumber bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to
show fresh power soon. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $255.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $276.20. First resistance is seen at
$263.30 and then at $265.00. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $259.80 and then at $257.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $0.60 an ounce at
$1,728.70 today. Prices closed near the session high today
as bargain hunters again stepped in to buy the early dip.
The key outside markets also turned bullish for gold as the
day wore on--the U.S. dollar index weakened and crude oil
prices firmed. Gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but need to show fresh power soon to
suggest a near-term price uptrend can be restarted. Bulls'
next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the February high
of $1,765.90. Bears' next near-term downside price
objective is closing prices below psychological support at
$1,700.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$1,739.20 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at
$1,720.00 and then at last week’s low of $1,706.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March silver futures closed up $0.047 an ounce at $33.455
today. Prices closed near the session high today after
hitting a fresh three-week low early on. Bargain hunting
was also featured in silver. The key outside markets also
turned bullish for silver as the day wore on--the U.S.
dollar index weakened and crude oil prices firmed. Silver
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
but are fading a bit. Prices have been trading sideways for
three weeks. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $34.52 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $32.50. First resistance is seen
at $33.75 and then at this week’s high of $34.035. Next
support is seen at $33.00 and then at today’s low of
$32.64. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 25 points 380.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh three-week low early on. The key outside markets also
turned bullish for copper as the day wore on--the U.S.
dollar index weakened and crude oil prices firmed. Copper
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has
been negated this week. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above major
psychological resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at today’s low of 372.75
cents. First resistance is seen at 382.50 cents and then at
385.00 cents. First support is seen at 376.30 cents and
then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $0.53 a barrel at
$102.33 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh four-week high. Crude oil bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained
some upside momentum recently. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $103.90 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
February low of $95.44. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $102.69 and then at $103.00. First support is seen
at $101.50 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

March heating oil closed up 259 points at $3.2175 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh eight-month high close. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the June 2011 high of $3.2244. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1000. First resistance
lies at $3.2244 and then at $3.2500. First support is seen
at today’s low of $3.1770 and then at this week’s low of
$3.1454. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 351 points at
$3.0418 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit another fresh nine-month high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.1000. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $2.9000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.0514 and then at $3.0750. First support
is seen at $3.0200 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

March natural gas closed up 14.3 cents at $2.568 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.844. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $2.289.
First resistance is seen at the February high of $2.618 and
then at $2.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of
$2.39 and then at $2.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 93 points at 1.3155 today. Prices closed near the
session high today after hitting a fresh three-week low
early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.3400. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
today’s low of 1.2975. First resistance for the Euro lies
at 1.3192 and then at 1.3250. Next support is seen at
1.3100 and then at 1.3045. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 71 points at 1.2674
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh 3.5-month low. Bears have good downside near-term
technical momentum and gained more today. The bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.2800. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October spike low of 1.2609. First
resistance is seen at 1.2700 and then at today’s high of
1.2764. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2666 and
then at 1.2609. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The March Swiss franc closed up 66 points at 1.0893 today.
Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a
fresh three-week low early on. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.1100. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at today’s low of 1.0755. First
resistance is seen at 1.0941 and then at the February high
of 1.1008. First support is seen at 1.0813 and then at
today’s low of 1.0755. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The March Australian dollar closed up 74 points at 1.0720
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the contract
high of 1.0795. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0450. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0740 and then at 1.0795. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0611 and then at this week’s low of
1.0588. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 29 points at 1.0029
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A three-
month-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the October
high of 1.0075. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at .9925. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 1.0055 and then at 1.0075. First support is seen at
.9988 and then at today’s low of .9941. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

The March British pound closed up 117 points at 1.5804
today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored
a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Short
covering was featured following recent selling pressure.
Bulls regained some upside technical momentum today and now
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of 1.5924. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at this
week’s low of 1.5641. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.5813 and then at 1.5880. First support is seen at
1.5750 and then at 1.5700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 33 points at 79.45
today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting another fresh three-week high early on. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at today’s high of 80.24. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 78.00.
Next resistance lies at 80.00 and then at 80.24. First
support is seen at today’s low of 79.37 and then at 79.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 28/32 at 142 14/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has
again turned choppy. The bond market bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
140 21/32. The next upside technical objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 144 even. First resistance is seen at 143
even and then at 143 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 141 30/32 and then at 141 16/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 17.5 (32nds) at 131.01.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
trading has turned choppy again. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the recent all-time high of 132.11.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
January low of 129.26.0. First resistance is seen at
131.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.24.5. First
support is seen at today’s low of 130.26.5 and then at the
February low of 130.18.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly higher today. Prices have recently hit for-the-move
highs. The stock index bulls have good upside near-term
technical momentum on their side. It’s those quiet,
unassuming price trends like those in the stock indexes at
present that are most likely to continue.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 35.25 at 2,592.75.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh 11-year high close. There was not follow-through
selling pressure today and a bearish “key reversal” down on
the daily bar chart was not confirmed. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,625.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 2,500.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 2,500.50 and then at 2,615.00. First support
is seen at 2,575.00 and then at today’s low of 2,542.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 12.80 at 1,355.00.
Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a
fresh 9.5-month high close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the May 2011 high of 1,372.70. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,296.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,358.10 and then at 1,372.70. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1,334.30 and then at 1,325.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 107 points at 12,870 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
four-year high. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 13,000. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the January low of 12,250. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,885 and then at 12,950. First
support is seen at 12,800 and then at this week’s low of
12,735. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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