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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--February 27

Feb 28, 2012

Monday Evening, February 27-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.87 at
$128.62 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today on more profit-taking pressure from recent gains. The
key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the
cattle market today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer,
while crude oil prices were weaker. No serious chart damage
has occurred but the bulls are fading a bit and need to
show some fresh power soon. Cattle futures bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
$131.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the February low of $126.70. First
resistance is seen at $129.00 and then at $129.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $128.50 and then at
$128.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May feeder cattle closed down $1.25 at $160.70 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw profit-
taking pressure. Feeder bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and the market was due for a
corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $162.35. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
$160.00. First resistance is seen at $161.00 and then at
$161.50. First support is seen at $160.50 and then at
$160.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

April lean hogs closed down $1.07 at $88.65 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for the hog market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer, while crude oil
prices were weaker. Hog market bulls and bears are back on
a level near-term technical playing field. Prices are still
in a very choppy six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart, but now just barely. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at the February high of
$90.95. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $87.87. First resistance is seen at
$89.00 and then at today’s high of $89.60. First support is
seen at today’s low of $88.40 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 4 3/4 cents at $6.48
3/4 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
closed at a fresh two-week high close. The key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for the corn market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer, while crude oil
prices were weaker. Yet, corn managed gains anyway, which
is a bullish clue. Recent export demand for U.S. corn is
also bullish for this market. Corn market bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $6.56. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $6.26. First
resistance for March corn is seen at $6.56 and then at
$6.60. First support is seen at $6.45 and then at $6.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans closed up 15 3/4 cents at $13.02 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh five-month high. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for the soybean market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer, while crude oil prices were
weaker. Yet, beans posted solid gains anyway, which is a
bullish clue. Soybeans are also seeing good U.S. export
demand recently. Soybean bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $13.50 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the January high of $12.53 3/4. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $13.03 3/4 and then at $13.15. First
support is seen at today’s low of $12.84 and then at
$12.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May soybean meal closed up $7.40 at $343.60 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 5.5-
month high. Meal bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $350.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $329.80.
First resistance comes in at today’s high of $343.60 and
then at $345.00. First support is seen at $340.00 and then
at today’s low of $336.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May bean oil closed up 21 points at 54.86 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh
5.5-month high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for the bean oil market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer, while crude oil prices were
weaker. Yet, bean oil rallied anyway, which is a bullish
clue. Bean oil bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 53.50
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 54.98
cents and then at 55.25 cents. First support is seen at
54.50 cents and then at today’s low of 54.31 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 11 1/2 cents at $6.52 3/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for the wheat market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer, while crude oil prices were weaker. Yet,
wheat rallied anyway, which is a bullish clue. Wheat bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $6.60 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $6.54 1/2 and then at $6.60. First support lies at
$6.45 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents at $6.93 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high on short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $7.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $6.76 1/2. First resistance is seen at
$7.00 and then at $7.10. First support is seen at today’s
low of $6.81 1/2 and then at $6.76 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

May oats closed down 1/4 cent at $3.10 3/4 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh two-week
low. Oats bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.06. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the February high of $3.24. First support lies at
today’s low of $3.08 1/2 and then at $3.06. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.13 and then at
$3.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 35 points at 25.57 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
four-month high. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer, while crude oil prices were weaker. Yet,
sugar rallied anyway, which is a bullish clue. Sugar bulls
have gained good upside near-term technical momentum
recently. The bulls have the near-term technical advantage.
Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the October high of 27.19 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 24.50 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 25.81 cents and then at 26.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 25.22 cents and
then at 25.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May coffee closed up 70 points at 204.30 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Tepid short covering
in a bear market was featured. Prices are in a choppy,
five-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 215.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below major psychological support at 200.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 206.75 cents and then at 208.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 201.30 cents and then at 200.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May cocoa closed up $82 at $2,439 a ton. Prices closed near
the session high today. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for the cocoa market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer, while crude oil prices were
weaker. Yet, cocoa rallied anyway, which is a bullish clue.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of $2,499. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $2,250.
First resistance is seen at $2,450 and then at last week’s
high of $2,467. First support is seen at $2,400 and then at
$2,375. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May cotton closed up 52 points at 90.67 cents today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw short covering in a
bear market. Prices late last week hit a seven-week low.
Cotton bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 94.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the December low of 84.23 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 89.74 cents and then at last week’s low of
89.01 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
91.34 cents and then at 92.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

May orange juice closed down 280 points at $1.8120 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the
slight near-term technical advantage amid choppy trading.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $1.8720. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the February low of $1.7440.
First resistance is seen at $1.8250 and then at $1.8500.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.8000 and then at
$1.7800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March lumber futures closed down $2.10 at $269.00 today.
The lumber bulls have the near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $257.70. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $276.20. First resistance is seen at
$270.00 and then at $272.50. First support is seen at
$267.50 and then at $265.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $2.60 an ounce at
$1,773.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
mild profit-taking pressure. The key “outside markets” were
also bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. The bulls still
have some upside near-term technical momentum. Gold bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside technical breakout objective is to
produce a close above strong technical resistance at the
November high of $1,808.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of $1,706.70. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,781.00 and then at last
week’s high of $1,789.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $1,762.60 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

March silver futures closed up $0.117 an ounce at $35.455
today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Prices Friday
and hit a nearly four-month high. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. That did limit the
upside in silver today. Silver still bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $35.68 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$34.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$35.72 and then at $36.00. Next support is seen at $35.00
and then at $34.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 65 points 386.95 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for copper today as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker.
Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of 369.35
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 389.00
cents and then at the January high of 393.90 cents. First
support is seen at 385.00 cents and then at today’s low of
382.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $2.33 a barrel at
$107.47 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw profit taking after prices hit a 9.5-month high late
last week. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was bearish for
crude. Tensions in the Middle East are still bullish for
crude. Crude oil bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above psychological resistance at $110.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below major
psychological support at $100.00. First resistance is seen
at $108.00 and then at $109.00. First support is seen at
$107.00 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

April heating oil closed down 503 points at $3.2628 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking
after hitting a 9.5-month high on Friday. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April 2011 high of
$3.3422. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $3.1793. First resistance lies at $3.3000 and
then at last week’s high of $3.3151. First support is seen
at $3.2500 and then at $3.2250. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 482 points at
$3.2765 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw profit taking after hitting a contract high early
on today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, this market is still
technically overbought and due for more of a corrective
pullback very soon. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.3500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$3.1500. First resistance is seen at $3.3000 and then at
today’s contract high of $3.3270. First support is seen at
$3.2500 and then at $3.2250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

April natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $2.611 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, my bias is that a
market low is in place, or close at hand. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.942. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$2.438. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.742
and then at the February high of $2.862. First support is
seen at the February low of $2.50 and then at the contract
low of $2.438. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 53 points at 1.3407 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and saw a corrective pullback after hitting
an 11-week high on Friday. Bulls still have some upside
technical momentum and have the slight near-term technical
advantage. A six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is
in place. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.3600. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.3100. First resistance for the Euro lies at
last week’s high of 1.3488 and then at 1.3500. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.3367 and then at 1.3300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The March Japanese yen closed up 71 points at 1.2423 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market after prices hit a fresh nine-
month low early on. Bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.2603. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the May 2011 low of 1.2201. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2482 and then at
1.2512. First support is seen at 1.2400 and then at 1.2350.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 53 points at 1.1124
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a
corrective pullback after hitting a fresh 3.5-month high on
Friday. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage
as a seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1300.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 1.0913. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 1.1200 and then at 1.1250. First support is seen at
1.1080 and then at 1.1023. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 58 points at 1.0733
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the contract
high of 1.0795. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0450. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0758 and then at 1.0795. Next support is seen at
1.0700 and then at today’s low of 1.0625. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 14 points at 1.0007
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A three-
month-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at last week’s
high of 1.0090. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at .9925. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0021 and then at 1.0041. First support is seen at last
week’s low of .9974 and then at the February low of .9941.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The March British pound closed down 65 points at 1.5819
today. Prices closed near the session low today on a
corrective pullback from solid gains scored on Friday.
Bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of 1.5924. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the February low of 1.5641. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5895 and then at
1.5924. First support is seen at 1.5750 and then at 1.5700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 19 points at 78.59
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Bears still have some downside near-term
momentum. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of 80.24. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 78.00. Next
resistance lies at 78.82 and then at 79.00. First support
is seen at last week’s low of 78.26 and then at 78.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 27/32 at 143 27/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Tensions in the Middle East and the
ongoing EU debt crisis are still bullish for U.S.
Treasuries. The bond market bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of 140 21/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the January high of 145
15/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 144 3/32
and then at 144 16/32. First support is seen at 143 16/32
and then at today’s low of 142 31/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 12.5 (32nds) at 131.18.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 131.24.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
January low of 129.26.0. First resistance is seen at
131.24.5 and then at 132.00.0. First support is seen at
131.09.5 and then at today’s low of 131.05.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today. Prices have recently hit for-the-move
highs. The stock index bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 8.00 at 2,609.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart and poked
to another fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,500.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,616.75 and then at 2,625.00. First support is seen at
2,600.00 and then at today’s low of 2,578.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.70 at 1,367.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh
10-month high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
May 2011 high of 1,372.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,296.00. First resistance is seen at 1,372.70
and then at 1,385.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of 1,353.00 and then at 1,334.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 8 points at 12,969 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-
year high. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
13,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 12,500.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,005
and then at 13,050. First support is seen at 12,900 and
then at today’s low of 12,865. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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