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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Jan. 17

Jan 18, 2013

Thursday Evening, January 17--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing
from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I was out of the office today. My friend and fellow
trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a
bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and enjoy his
work, too. --Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday renewing the rally off
November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off December’s low, the reaction high crossing at 2773.25 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
2695.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 2752.00. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 2773.25. First support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 2695.70.
Second support is the December 31st high crossing at 2665.00.

The March S&P 500 soared to a new high for the year on Thursday as it
extends this year’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the
rally off November’s low, weekly resistance crossing at 1526.50 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
1444.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 1480.30. Second resistance is
weekly resistance crossing at 1526.50. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 1463.13.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1444.48.

The Dow close higher on Thursday following this morning’s friendly
jobless report and a supportive housing starts report for December. This
morning’s jobless report declined by 37K to 335K while December’s
housing starts rose by 12.1%. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off
November’s low, October’s high crossing at 13,661 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,331 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 13,633. Second resistance is
October’s high crossing at 13,661. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 13,467. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 13,331.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed down 29/32’s at 145-06.

March T-bonds closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Thursday as
it consolidates some of the rally off this month’s low. The low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 146-04 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off
November’s high, September’s low crossing at 143-08 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-
04. Second resistance is the January 2nd gap crossing at 146-23. First
support is this month’s low crossing at 143-17. Second support is
September’s low crossing at 143-08.

ENERGY MARKETS

February crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 62%
retracement level of the September-November crossing at 95.29 as it
extends the rally off November’s low. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
February extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of
the September-November crossing at 97.46 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.23 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 96.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the
September-November crossing at 97.46. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 93.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 92.23.

February heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on
Thursday consolidating some of the decline off last Thursday’s high. The
high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If February extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at
298.09 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off
December’s low, October’s high crossing at 317.98 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 311.37.
Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 317.98. First support is
the reaction low crossing at 298.09. Second support is December’s low
crossing at 290.27.

February unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday and above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 275.98 tempering the near-term bearish
outlook. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes above last Thursday’s high crossing at 281.82
are needed to renew the rally off December’s low. If February renews
this month’s decline, December’s low crossing at 259.59 is the next
downside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at
281.82. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 286.60. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 269.15. Second support is
December’s low crossing at 259.59.

February Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday extending the rally
off this month’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the reaction high crossing at 3.532 would confirm that a trend
change has taken place. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at 3.315 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 3.532. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 3.765. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 3.315. Second support is the reaction low crossing
at 3.087.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. If March renews last week’s decline, December’s low
crossing at 79.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 80.04 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at
80.04. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.05. First
support is Monday’s low crossing at 79.40. Second support is December’s
low crossing at 79.01.

The March Euro closed higher on Thursday ending a two-day correction off
Monday’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, weekly
resistance crossing at 134.88 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.20 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at
134.13. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.88. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.20. Second support
is this month’s low crossing at 130.46.

The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
renews this month’s decline, November’s low crossing at 1.5828 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1.6121 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6121. Second
resistance is January’s high crossing at 1.6314. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 1.5945. Second support is November’s low
crossing at 1.5846.

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extended this
week’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this month’s decline, the 38% retracement
level of the July-December rally crossing at .10679 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10884 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at .10884. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at .10986. First support is today’s low crossing
at .10689. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the July-
December rally crossing at .10679.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday and the high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends the rally off December’s low, the reaction high
crossing at 102.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction
low crossing at 100.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 101.75.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.10. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.01. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 100.62.

The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Thursday to renew the
decline off last September’s high. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March
extends the decline off September’s high, monthly support crossing at
.11050 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at .11496 are needed to confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing
at .11306. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.11496. First support is today’s low crossing at .11097. Second support
is monthly support crossing at .11050.

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold closed higher on Thursday extending the rally off this
month’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1695.40 are needed
to confirm that a low has been posted. If February renews the decline
off November’s high, the 75% retracement level of the May-October rally
crossing at 1603.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 1695.40. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 1725.00. First support is the 62% retracement level of
the May-October rally crossing at 1638.00. Second support is the 75%
retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1603.30.

March silver closed higher on Thursday extending the rally off this
month’s low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, the
reaction high crossing at 32.600 is the next upside target. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.556 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
31.930. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.600. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.556. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 29.240.

March copper closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off
this month’s high, the reaction low crossing at 358.15 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at
366.16 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 366.16. Second
resistance is this month’s high crossing at 375.90. First support is
Wednesday’s low crossing at 359.95. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 358.15.

GRAINS

March Corn closed down 6 3/4-cents at 7.24 1/2.

March corn closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday despite a
better than expected export sales report that showed net sales of 15.5
million bushels. Today’s setback from key resistance marked by the
August-November downtrend line crossing near 7.33 was to be expected.
The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above aforementioned
downtrend line would confirm a trend change while opening the door for a
possible test of November’s high crossing at 7.67 1/2. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.01 1/2 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing
at 7.35. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 7.67 1/2.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.01 1/2.
Second support is last Friday’s low crossing at 6.86 1/4.

March wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 7.81 1/4.

March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the
rally off last Friday’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last Friday’s low,
the 38% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at
8.10 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday’s low
crossing at 7.36 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 7.91. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-January decline
crossing at 8.10 1/2. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at
7.36 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year’s
rally crossing at 7.25 3/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/2-cents at 8.37.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as
it consolidated some of the rally off last Friday’s low. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, the
38% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing at 8.53
is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 8.16 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 8.47.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-January
decline crossing at 8.53. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 8.16 1/2. Second support is last Friday’s low crossing at
7.89 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 8.69 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some
of the rally off last Friday’s low. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins to
trade. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
last Friday’s low, the reaction high crossing at 9.11 1/2 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.51
3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 8.75 1/4. Second resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 9.11 1/2. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 8.51 3/4. Second support is last Friday’s low
crossing at 8.30.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed down 6 1/4-cents at 14.30 1/4.

March soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the
rally off last Friday’s low. This morning’s export sales report showed
net sales of 59.11 million bushels, which was the highest value in the
current marketing year. Conflicting reports about dry weather in South
America is beginning to get the attention of traders in the soybean and
corn markets as the market is counting on the South American crop to
come in a timely manner to cover the needs of buyers as U.S. beans
become scarce. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, December’s high crossing
at 15.01 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 13.97 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 14.48. Second
resistance is December’s high crossing at 15.01 1/4. First support is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.97 3/4. Second support is last
Friday’s low crossing at 13.51 1/2.

March soybean meal closed down $4.50 at $404.10.

March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of
the rally off this month’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible. If March extends the rally off last Friday’s low,
the reaction high crossing at 435.80 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 10-day moving average crossing at 399.90 would temper the
near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off September’s
high, the 62% retracement level of the 2012 rally crossing at 379.10 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 435.80. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 457.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 399.90. Second
support is last Friday’s low crossing at 392.40.

March soybean oil closed up 18-pts. at 51.49.

March soybean closed higher on Thursday extending the rally off
December’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s low,
December’s high crossing at 51.85 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.79 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December’s high
crossing at 51.85. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at
53.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.79.
Second support is last Friday’s low crossing at 49.12.

LIVESTOCK

February hogs closed up $0.80 at $85.95.

February hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week’s
rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the
RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
86.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If February
renewed last week’s decline, December’s low crossing at 83.20 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 86.00. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at
87.77. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 84.15. Second
resistance is December’s low crossing at 83.20.

February cattle closed down $1.92 at 126.60.

February cattle plunged to its lowest level since last April on Thursday
as it extends this month’s decline. Much of today’s sell off was due to
news that Cargill will close one of its slaughtering plants because of
declining cattle supplies. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the
aforementioned decline, last April’s low crossing at 124.30 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
132.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.81. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.08. First
support is today’s low crossing at 125.52. Second support is last
April’s low crossing at 124.30.

March feeder cattle closed down $2.37 at $145.85.

March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday extending the
decline off December’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March
extends this month’s decline, last July’s low crossing at 145.10 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
153.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153.37. Second
resistance is January’s high crossing at 156.60. First support is
today’s low crossing at 145.22. Second support is last July’s low
crossing at 145.10.

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee close higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
December’s low, the reaction high crossing at 15.97 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.87 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 22.66 confirming that a short-term low has been
posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends
today’s rally, the 25% retracement level of the September-January
decline crossing at 23.32 is the next upside target. If March renews the
decline off September’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-
September rally crossing at 21.45 is the next downside target.

March sugar closed lower on Thursday extending this month’s decline. The
low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year’s decline, the
75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 17.38 is the
next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
19.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March cotton closed higher on Thursday extending the rally off
November’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends
the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2012-decline
crossing at 78.97 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday’s
low crossing at 74.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews the decline off this month’s high, the reaction
low crossing at 73.37 is the next downside target.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an
explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any
trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal
to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is
up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any
traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has
said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity
futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX
AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand
your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly
reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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