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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Jan. 23

Jan 24, 2013

Wednesday Evening, January 23-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.02 at
$130.45 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Prices are hovering near a 6.5-month low. The cattle bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A steep
four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$132.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $127.55. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $131.05 and then
at $131.50. First support is seen at $130.00 and then at
last week’s low of $129.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.15 at $147.15 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Prices last Friday and hit
a fresh contract low. The feeder bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep three-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $150.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$144.00. First resistance is seen at $147.50 and then at
$148.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$146.45 and then at 146.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.30 at $87.97 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Big losses in the
cattle futures markets recently have limited buying
interest in hogs. The hog bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $89.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$86.90. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$88.65 and then at $89.00. First support is seen at $87.50
and then at $86.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures last traded down 7 cents at
$7.21 1/2 today in late trading. Prices were near the
session low on a corrective, consolidative pullback from
recent gains. Bulls and bears are presently on a level
near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls have
more work to do in the near-term to keep the sellers at bay
and to suggest a price uptrend can be sustained. Corn
bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $7.00.
First resistance for March corn is seen at $7.25 and then
at today’s high of $7.30 1/2. First support is seen at
$7.20 and then at $7.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March soybeans were down 14 1/2 cents at $14.37 1/4 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were near the session
low on a corrective, profit-taking pullback from recent
gains. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum to
suggest a market low is in place. A bullish double-bottom
reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Soybean
bulls and bears are now on a level near-term technical
playing field. However, the bean bulls need to show power
soon to keep that status. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $13.51 1/2.
First resistance is seen at $14.50 and then at this week’s
high of $14.60 3/4. First support is seen at $14.30 and
then at $14.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March soybean meal was down $5.60 at $416.00 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low on a downside
technical correction. Meal bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls need
to show fresh power very soon to keep that status. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $435.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$400.00. First resistance comes in at $420.00 and then at
this week’s high of $425.30. First support is seen at
today’s low of $414.40 and then at $411.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

March bean oil was down 34 points at 52.09 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low on a
corrective, profit-taking pullback from recent gains. Bean
oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage as a five-
week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 53.31 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below major technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 52.67 cents and
then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents
and then at 51.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 6 1/4 cents at $7.73 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low on
more profit taking. Bulls have faded and need to show fresh
power soon. Wheat bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $8.25 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the January low of $7.36 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $7.85 and then at $8.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $7.71 and then at $7.66 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 1 3/4 cents at $8.29 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. HRW
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $8.75.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of $7.85 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $8.39 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $8.52. First
support is seen at today’s low of $8.25 1/4 and then at
$8.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March oats were up 1 3/4 cents at $3.60 3/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session low. Oats bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.50.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.58 3/4 and then at
this week’s low of $3.54 3/4. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $3.65 and then at $3.67 3/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 44 points at 18.56 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting
a fresh 25-month low early on. Prices today also scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. If there
is good follow-through buying and a higher close on
Thursday, then a bullish “key reversal” up would be
confirmed, which would be an early clue that a market
bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 19.19 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 17.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 18.60 cents and then
at 18.75 cents. First support is seen at 18.25 cents and
then at today’s low of 18.06 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

March coffee closed up 205 points at 150.65 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. The coffee bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 157.90
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of 141.24 cents a pound. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 151.80 cents and then at 153.00
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 148.20
cents and then at 145.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

March cocoa closed up $16 at $2,229 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh seven-
month low early on. Short covering in a bear market was
featured. The cocoa bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$2,313. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,115. First resistance is seen at $2,250 and
then at $2,275. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,191 and then at $2,175. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cotton closed up 55 points at 80.48 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh
eight-month high today. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 82.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 75.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 80.51
cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at
80.00 cents and then at today’s low of 78.94 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March orange juice closed up 15 points at $1.1535 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Tepid short
covering was featured. FCOJ bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.2000. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
January low of $1.0910. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.1665 and then at this week’s high of $1.1780.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $1.1400 and
then at $1.1200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March lumber futures closed up $3.50 at $356.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on a
corrective, short-covering bounce from recent selling
pressure. Prices Tuesday hit a five-week low. Chart damage
has been inflicted recently and bears have gained downside
near-term technical momentum to suggest a market top is in
place. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $340.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $370.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $358.50 and then at
$360.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$352.30 and then at $350.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $6.50 an ounce
at $1,686.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Some profit taking and chart consolidation were
featured following recent gains. Gold bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears'
next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,697.80 and
then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,683.10 and then at $1,675.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.0

March silver futures closed up $0.193 an ounce at $32.37
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit another fresh five-week high. The silver bulls have
the near-term technical advantage and have some fresh
upside momentum on their side. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $33.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $30.79. First resistance is seen
at $32.50 and then at $32.75. Next support is seen at
$32.00 and then at this week’s low of $31.815. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 195 points at 368.55 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Copper
bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term
technical playing field. Prices are in a choppy nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
375.90 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 359.95 cents. First
resistance is seen at 370.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 371.15 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
367.65 cents and then at this week’s low of 366.200 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: March crude oil closed down $1.38 a barrel at
$95.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low after
hitting another fresh four-month high early today. Prices
today also scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on
the daily bar chart. The crude bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above major psychological resistance at
$100.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $92.00. First
resistance is seen at $96.00 and then at today’s high of
$96.92. First support is seen at $94.50 and then at $94.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March heating oil closed up 161 points at $3.0718 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh two-month high close. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. A choppy five-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of $3.1137. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the January low of
$2.9809. First resistance lies at this week’s high of
$3.0772 and then at $3.1000. First support is seen at
today’s low of $3.0444 and then at this week’s low of
$3.0293. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 115 points at
$2.8526 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh four-month high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$2.8753. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the January low of0
$2.7117. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.8664 and then at $2.8753. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8400 and then at $2.8200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

March natural gas closed down 0.5 cents at $3.553 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Tuesday hit a
six-week high. Nat gas bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field but the bulls have gained some
momentum recently. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.75. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.25. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.594 and then at $3.646. First support is
seen at today’s low of $3.511 and then at $3.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed steady at 1.3324 today. Prices closed near mid-range
again today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. A bull flag pattern has formed on
the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.3200. First resistance for the
Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.3377 and then at last
week’s high of 1.3417. Next support is seen at today’s low
of 1.3269 and then at 1.3200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The March Japanese yen closed up 8 points at 1.1282 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a fresh
contract low. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 3.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no early
clues of a market bottom being close at hand. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the January high of 1.1522. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.1000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.1360 and then at last week’s high of
1.1396. First support is seen at 1.1200 and then at the
contract low of 1.1086. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 4 points at 1.0764 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The Swissy bulls and
bears are presently on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0900.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 1.0555. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0788 and then at 1.0800. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 1.0701 and then at last week’s
low of 1.0657. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 16 points at 1.0507
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices are
hovering near the recent contract high. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at 1.0750. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the January low of 1.0340.
First resistance is seen at the contract high of 1.0545 and
then at 1.0600. Next support is seen at last week’s low of
1.0440 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 68 points at .9995
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh two-month low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart today. Bulls have faded
badly this week. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-
term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the January high of 1.0175. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the November low of .9919.
First resistance is seen at 1.0040 and then at today’s high
of 1.0085. First support is seen at today’s low of .9983
and then at .9950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed down 3 points at 1.5838
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh 5.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the January high of 1.6166.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.5700. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.5889 and then
at 1.5945. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5797
and then at 1.5750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed steady at 79.98 today.
Prices closed near mid-range again today. The bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the January high of 80.99.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 79.01. Next resistance lies at last week’s
high of 80.27 and then at 80.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of 79.76 and then at the January low of 79.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1/32 at 146 even today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. T-Bond bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. There is stiff chart
support near the January low. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of 143
17/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 146
23/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 146
12/32 and then at last week’s high of 146 17/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 145 26/32 and then at 145
16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 0.5 (32nds) at 132.09.0 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 133.02.5. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the December low of 131.25.5.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 132.15.5
and then at 132.20.0. First support is seen at today’s low
of 132.05.0 and then at 132.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer again today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage as the indexes hover near the recent
highs. Some fresh, minor U.S. economic data and world
economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund
failed to significantly influence the markets Wednesday.
It’s been a quieter trading week with lower daily price
volatility in many markets. U.S. traders are focused on
quarterly corporate earnings reports. Heavyweight Apple
reports its earnings after the markets close Wednesday.
There was also a U.S. House of Representatives vote
Wednesday on raising the U.S. government debt ceiling. That
vote did pass. The glitzy World Economic Forum gets under
way in Davos, Switzerland Wednesday. Market watchers will
be watching proclamations coming out of that annual
gathering of world “movers and shakers”--celebrity business
and government types, including some Hollywood celebrities.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 8.50 at 2,759.50
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit
another fresh three-month high today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
2,675.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,764.00 and then at 2,775.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,747.75 and then at this week’s low of
2,720.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.30 at 1,490.70.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh five-year high close. Bulls still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,500.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at last
week’s low of 1,457.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,491.00 and then at 1,500.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1,484.70 and then at this week’s low
of 1,475.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 9 points at 13,705. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit another fresh five-year high.
Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 13,800. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of 13,235.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,731
and then at 13,775. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,688 and then at 13,650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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