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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Jan. 7

Jan 08, 2013

Monday Evening, January 7-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.05 at
$133.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The recent
choppy and volatile trading at higher price levels is an
early warning signal of a potential topping process in this
market. But right now the cattle bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
$134.40. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $131.95. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $133.32 and then at
$133.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $132.70
and then at $132.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed down $0.25 at $156.07 today.
Prices closed near mid-range in quiet trading today. The
feeder bulls have the overall near-term chart advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the December high of $157.07. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $153.65. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $156.60 and then at $157.07. First support
is seen at $155.45 and then at 155.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

February lean hogs closed up $0.17 at $86.40 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. A four-month-old uptrend is
still in place on the daily chart. The bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at the November
contract high of $88.25. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of $83.20. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $86.75 and then at
$87.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $85.85 and
then at $85.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures last traded up 3 1/2 cent at
6.83 3/4 today in late trading. Tepid short covering in a
bear market was featured. Prices were near mid-range and
did poke to another fresh six-month low today. Traders are
awaiting Friday’s important USDA supply and demand and
annual grain production summary for direction. At present
the corn bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is
to push and close prices above psychological resistance at
$7.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.75. First resistance for March corn is seen
at today’s high of $6.90 and then at $6.95. First support
is seen at today’s low of $6.78 and then at $6.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March soybeans were up 17 3/4 cents at $13.85 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near the session high on
short covering in a bear market. Traders are awaiting
Friday’s important USDA supply and demand and annual grain
production summary for direction. Soybean bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing January prices above solid
technical resistance at $14.50 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $13.56. First resistance is seen at $14.00
and then at $14.10. First support is seen at $13.56 and
then at $13.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March soybean meal was up $6.80 at $405.80 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a five-month
low. Meal bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $425.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the late-August low of $393.00.
First resistance comes in at Friday’s high of $408.60 and
then at $410.00. First support is seen at $400.00 and then
at today’s low of $396.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March bean oil was up 23 points at 50.13 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. The
bean oil bulls had gained near-term upside momentum last
week but need to show fresh power soon to regain it. Bean
oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the December high of 51.85 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 48.73 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 50.57 cents and then Friday’s high of 50.87
cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and then at
49.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 1 cent at $7.48 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hovering near Friday’s 6.5-month low. Traders are awaiting
Friday’s important USDA supply and demand and annual grain
production summary for direction. Wheat bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $7.90 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $7.60 1/2 and then at $7.75. First
support lies at Friday’s low of $7.39 3/4 and then at
$7.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 3/4 cent at $8.03 1/2 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and
hovering near Friday’s six-month low. HRW bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $8.41. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$7.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.16
1/2 and then at $8.25. First support is seen at Friday’s
low of $7.96 3/4 and then at $7.90. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

March oats were down 1 1/2 cents at $3.31 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and hit
another fresh six-month low today. Oats bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.20. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support
lies at today’s low of $3.28 1/2 and then at $3.25. First
resistance is seen at $3.35 and then at today’s high of
$3.38 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 5 points at 18.90 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering
in a bear market. Prices today and hit a fresh three-week
low early on. Sugar bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 19.75 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
18.31 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
19.05 cents and then at 19.29 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 18.67 cents and then at 18.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March coffee closed up 165 points at 149.00 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. The coffee bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 157.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
141.24 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 151.95 cents and then at 152.50 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 146.60 cents and then at
145.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March cocoa closed up $47 at $2,267 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a
bear market. The cocoa bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,325. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,115.
First resistance is seen at $2,289 and then at $2,300.
First support is seen at $2,250 and then at $2,237.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cotton closed up 65 points at 75.70 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Traders are
awaiting Friday’s important USDA supply and demand and
annual production summary for direction. The cotton bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, but need to show more power soon to keep it. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
December high of 77.10 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 73.72 cents. First resistance is seen at 76.00 cents
and then at 76.34 cents. First support is seen at 75.00
cents and then at today’s low of 74.64 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

March orange juice closed down 240 points at $1.1055 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh seven-week low. FCOJ bulls have faded badly recently
as a bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily
bar chart. No threatening cold weather for the southeastern
U.S. has sucked speculative money out of the FCOJ market.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2000. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the October low of $1.0675. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.1445 and then at $1.1600. First
support is seen at $1.1000 and then at $1.0800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

March lumber futures closed up $5.90 at $381.90 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. The lumber bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$365.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $397.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $383.00 and then at
$385.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $381.00
and then at $380.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $1.40 an ounce
at $1,647.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today on light follow-through selling pressure from
Friday’s strong losses that drive prices to a fresh 4.5-
month low and produced fresh near-term technical damage.
Friday’s close well up from the spike low does hint that
the bears may be getting exhausted on from their big push
lower. However, today’s low-range close puts that notion
into question. A high-range close today would have been an
early clue that a near-term market top is in place. The
gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $1,695.40. Bears' next near-term
downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,626.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,663.00 and
then at $1,675.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,642.60 and then at $1,636.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
3.5

March silver futures closed up $0.159 an ounce at $30.105
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Friday saw
strong losses that drove silver prices to a 4.5-month low
and produced fresh near-term technical damage. Friday’s
close well up from the spike low does hint that the bears
may be getting exhausted on from their big push lower. The
silver bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $31.535 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $29.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $30.475 and then at $30.79. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $29.86 and then at $29.635.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 140 points at 367.95 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more profit
taking after prices last week hit a 2.5-month high. Copper
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the September high of 384.80 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 365.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 370.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 371.35 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
365.25 cents and then at 362.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $0.13 a barrel at
$93.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The crude bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum and they have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $93.87 and then at $94.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $92.42 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

February heating oil closed up 174 points at $3.0351 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $3.1026.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.9600. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0455 and then at last
week’s high of $3.0702. First support is seen at today’s
low of $3.0086 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 188 points at
$2.7825 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the September
high of $2.8660. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.6500.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2.8136 and
then at $2.8500. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.7433 and then at last week’s low of $2.7211. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

February natural gas closed down 0.7 cents at $3.28 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Nat gas bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$3.050. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.352
and then at $3.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.238 and then at $3.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 40 points at 1.3120 today. Prices closed near the
session high today on some short covering and bargain
hunting following recent selling pressure. The Euro bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded recently. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3250. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at the December low of 1.2892. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3142 and then at 1.3200.
Next support is seen at 1.3050 and then at last week’s low
of 1.3005. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Japanese yen closed up 40 points at 1.1392 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
There are no early clues of a market bottom being close at
hand. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1700. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.1200. First resistance is seen
at 1.1448 and then at 1.1500. First support is seen at
Friday’s contract low of 1.1317 and then at 1.1250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed up 38 points at 1.0860 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw some short
covering and bargain hunting following recent selling
pressure. The Swissy bulls have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the December high of 1.1026. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
1.0678. First resistance is seen at 1.0900 and then at
1.0915. First support is seen at 1.0800 and then at last
week’s low of 1.0760. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March Australian dollar closed up 27 points at 1.0446
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of
1.0520. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 1.0281. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 1.0472 and then at 1.0500. Next support is
seen at 1.0400 and then at 1.0350. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5

The March Canadian dollar closed up 9 points at 1.0126
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the December
high of 1.0158. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0133 and then at last week’s high of 1.0149. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0100 and then at
1.0080. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March British pound closed up 42 points at 1.6101
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded badly recently, and a bearish double-top
reversal pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of 1.6314. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
last week’s low of 1.5945. First resistance is seen at
1.6150 and then at 1.6200. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.6017 and then at 1.5998. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 24 points at 80.37
today. Prices closed near the session low on a corrective,
profit-taking pullback after hitting a three-week high on
Friday. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some
fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
81.05. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at 79.42. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 80.80 and
then at 81.05. First support is seen at 80.25 and then at
80.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 7/32 at 144 23/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering in a
bear market after hitting a nearly four-month low on
Friday. Investor risk appetite is on the upswing to start
the new year and that has sucked safe-haven money out of
the bond and notes markets. T-Bond bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 143 8/32.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 146
23/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 145 4/32
and then at 145 19/32. First support is seen at today’s low
of 144 12/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 3.0 (32nds) at 131.19.5 today.
Prices closed near mid-range on short covering after
hitting a nearly four-month low on Friday. Bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 133.02.5. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the September low of 130.10.5.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 131.24.5 and
then at 132.00.0. First support is seen at today’s low of
131.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 131.04.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today on some mild profit taking. The shine of last
week’s temporary U.S. fiscal cliff agreement by U.S.
lawmakers has quickly faded. The market place is now
looking forward with trepidation to the upcoming
negotiations between the U.S. Congress and the Obama
administration on budget and spending matters. Such is
likely to limit trader and investor participation in many
markets in the coming weeks. European stocks were weaker
overnight in subdued dealings as traders there await
Thursday’s monthly European Central Bank meeting. In Asia,
the Australian stock market hit a 19-month high. Asian
traders are awaiting a fresh batch of Chinese economic data
due out next weekend.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 3.50 at 2,716.50
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the December low of 2,580.00. First resistance is seen
at Friday’s high of 2,736.00 and then at last week’s high
of 2,747.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,702.50 and then at 2,686.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 1.90 at 1,455.80.
Prices closed near mid-range on mild profit taking after
hitting a 2.5-month high Friday. Bulls still have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1,467.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the December low of 1,383.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,460.40 and then at
1,467.50. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,451.00
and then at 1,439.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed down 39 points at 13,307. Prices
closed near mid-range on mild profit taking after prices
Friday another 2.5-month high. Bulls still have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 13,597. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 12,777. First
resistance in the Dow lies at last week’s high of 13,370
and then at 13,400. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,280 and then at 13,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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