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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--January 11

Jan 12, 2012

Wednesday Evening, January 11-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.30 at
$121.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw more short covering. Gains were limited by the key
“outside markets” being in a bearish posture for the cattle
market today, as crude oil prices were lower and the U.S.
dollar index was higher. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $123.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $118.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $122.00 and then at $122.50. First support
is seen at $121.00 and then at today’s low of $120.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.57 at $150.85 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw profit
taking from recent gains. Feeder bulls have the solid near-
term technical advantage and there are still no early clues
that a market top is close at hand. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above technical resistance at last week’s contract high of
$152.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $148.77. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $151.45 and then at $152.00. First support is seen
at $150.50 and then at $150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0

February lean hogs closed down $1.15 at $83.15 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. The key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for the hog market today, as
crude oil prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was
higher. Hog bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above
solid chart resistance at $85.35. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of $82.62.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $83.62 and then
at $84.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $82.80
and then at $82.62. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 1 1/2 cents at
$6.53 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture
for the corn market today, as crude oil prices were lower
and the U.S. dollar index was higher. Also, there were some
rains hitting South American corn growing regions the past
48 hours, which did limit buying interest today. Still, the
corn market performed well today given those negative
forces. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA
monthly supply and demand report. Corn prices are still in
a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $6.64 1/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.25. First resistance for
March corn is seen at $6.57 1/2 and then at $6.60. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.46 and then at $6.39
1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March soybeans closed down 30 1/4 cents at $12.01 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Some wet weather in South American soybean regions the past
two days have pressured beans. Also, the key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for soybeans today, as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
lower. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA
supply and demand report. Soybean bulls and bears are back
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $12.50 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below technical support at $11.75. First
resistance is seen at $12.15 and then at $12.25. First
support is seen at the January low of $11.93 1/2 and then
at $11.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March soybean meal closed down $10.60 at $311.90 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Meal bulls still
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart, but now just barely. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$324.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $315.00
and then at $317.50. First support is seen at this week’s
low of $311.10 and then at $310.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

March bean oil closed down 61 points at 51.89 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the bean
oil market today, as crude oil prices were lower and the
U.S. dollar index was higher. Bean oil bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 53.79 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 51.09 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents
and then at today’s high of 52.45 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 51.61 cents and then at 51.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents at $6.41
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
in a bearish posture for the wheat market today, as crude
oil prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was higher.
Wheat will remain a follower of corn and beans for at least
the near term. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $6.70 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.45 and then at
$6.50. First support lies at today’s low of $6.32 1/4 and
then at last week’s low of $6.24 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 3 3/4 cents at $7.01 3/4
today. Prices closed near the session high and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $7.31
1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50.
First resistance is seen at $7.06 and then at $7.15. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $6.88 and then at
last week’s low of $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March oats closed down 3/4 cents at $2.98 1/2 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Oats bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of $2.84
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.05. First support lies at today’s low of $2.96 1/4 and
then at $2.93. First resistance is seen at $3.00 and then
at today’s high of $3.02 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 41 points at 23.73 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high again today.
Sugar bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices have been trading choppy and sideways at
lower levels for two months. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 24.65 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
December low of 22.62 cents. First resistance is seen at
24.00 cents and then at 24.25 cents. First support is seen
at 23.50 cents and then at 23.25 cents and then at 23.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March coffee closed up 805 points at 234.00 cents. Prices
closed near the session high today and hit a fresh five-
week high on short covering and bargain hunting. A report
that said Brazil coffee exports have declined was also
bullish for coffee today. The key “outside markets” were in
a bearish posture for the coffee market today, as crude oil
prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was higher.
Yet, coffee rallied strongly anyway, which is a bullish
near-term clue. Coffee bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 243.30 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of 216.60 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 235.20 cents and then at 237.50 cents.
First support is seen at 232.50 cents and then at 230.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March cocoa closed up $22 at $2,355 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high again today and hit another fresh
six-week high on more short covering and bargain hunting.
The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the
cocoa market today, as crude oil prices were lower and the
U.S. dollar index was higher. Yet, cocoa rallied anyway,
which is a bullish clue. Cocoa bears still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,500.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,200. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,388
and then at $2,400. First support is seen at $2,300 and
then at $2,274. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March cotton closed down 9 points at 96.87 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and poked to another
fresh seven-week high early on. The key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for the cotton market today, as
crude oil prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was
higher. Cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above major psychological resistance at
100.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 90.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 95.20 cents and then at 94.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at 97.50 cents and then at 98.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March orange juice closed down 1,955 points $1.8820 today.
Prices backed down sharply in extremely volatile trading
today. Prices rallied initially and set a fresh five-year
high on reports the U.S. may ban Brazilian orange juice
imports because they used a fungicide on the oranges that
might have seeped into the orange juice. That would mean
less supply, which would be bullish. However, today,
traders reckoned the Brazil news could cause fear and
uncertainty among consumers and prompt them to completely
back away from buying all orange juice in the coming weeks,
and that would be a very bearish development. This is still
a very fluid situation. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above the 2007 high of $2.0950. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.8170. First resistance
is seen at $1.9500 and then at $2.0000. First support is
seen at $1.8500 and then at $1.8170. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

March lumber futures closed down $7.50 at $243.40 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh four-
week low today. The lumber bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage again. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $235.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $255.00. First resistance is
seen at $245.00 and then at $248.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $242.00 and then at $240.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $8.00 an ounce
at $1,639.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
hit a fresh four-week high. Gold rallied despite bearish
“outside market” forces today—a stronger U.S. dollar index
and lower crude oil prices. This is another bullish near-
term clue for the gold market. A two-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart was negated today. Prices have also
pushed back above the closely watched 200-day moving
average in gold. Bulls have gained fresh upside technical
momentum recently. Bulls' next upside technical breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,562.50. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1,648.00 and then at $1,670.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1,630.80 and then at $1,620.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March silver futures closed up $0.11 an ounce at $29.92
today. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading
today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for silver
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were lower. Bulls this week have gained some fresh
upside technical momentum. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $31.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major technical support at $28.12. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $30.31 and then at $30.50. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $29.545 and then at
$29.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 320 points 354.50 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high again today. Copper
bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of 367.40 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 332.50 cents. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 355.65 cents and then at the
January high of 358.25 cents. First support is seen at
350.00 cents and then at today’s low of 347.05 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed down $1.22 a barrel
at $101.02 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and were pressured by a bearish weekly DOE report.
Prices were also pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index.
Crude oil bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, the going does get tough for the bulls
once prices move above the key $100.00 level. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $105.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $98.00. First
resistance is seen at $102.00 and then at $102.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $100.55 and then at
$100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

February heating oil closed down 278 points at $3.0737
today. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high early on and then
sold off to close nearer the session low and score a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$3.1803. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9500.
First resistance lies at $3.1000 and then at today’s high
of $3.1231. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0618
and then at $3.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 18 points at
$2.7710 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $2.8341. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.6500. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2.7981 and then at $2.8250. First support is seen at
$2.7500 and then at today’s low of $2.7328. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

February natural gas closed down 16.3 cents at $2.777
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit yet
another contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. There are no early clues of a
market low being close at hand. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $3.045.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.60.
First resistance is seen at $2.85 and then at $2.90. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of $2.741 and then
at $2.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 86 points at 1.2709 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and set a fresh 16-month low. Bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. There are no early clues to suggest a market low is
close at hand. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2500. First resistance for the
Euro lies at 1.280 and then at this week’s high of 1.2824.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2664 and then at
1.2600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 12 points at 1.3019
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 1.3101.
Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.2833. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of 1.3039 and then at last
week’s high of 1.3070. First support is seen at today’s low
of 1.2991 and then at last week’s low of 1.2943. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 68 points at 1.0487
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 1.0768. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at 1.0500 and then at
this week’s high of 1.0576 and then at 1.0600. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0431 and then at
1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Australian dollar closed down 17 points at 1.0232
today. Prices closed nearer the session high in quieter
trading today. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the October high of 1.0569. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at .9957. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.0273 and then at 1.0300. Next support
is seen at 1.0161 and then at this week’s low of 1.0065.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 34 points at .9796
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. A three-
week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the December high of .9923.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of .9573. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of .9847 and then at .9875. First support is seen at
today’s low of .9778 and then at .9748. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

The March British pound closed down 163 points at 1.5313
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
today. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the January high of 1.5663. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the October low of 1.5267. First resistance is seen at
1.5350 and then at 1.5400. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.5300 and then at 1.5267. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 48 points at 81.59
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 82.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 79.55.
Next resistance lies at this week’s high of 81.85 and then
at 82.00. First support is seen at 81.00 and then at 80.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 3/32 at 143 30/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bond
market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage
and regained some upside momentum today. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the January low of
141 10/32 even. The next upside technical objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 145 8/32. First resistance is seen at today’s
high if 144 6/32 and then at 144 24/32. First support is
seen at 143 16/32 and then at 143 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 16.0 (32nds) at 131.07.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-week high. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the December high of 131.14.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
January low of 130.03.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 131.10.0 and then at 131.14.0. First
support is seen at 131.00.0 and then at today’s low of
130.22.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today. The stock index bulls still have
upside technical momentum on their side.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 3.50 at 2,367.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at
a fresh two-month high close today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the October high of 2,408.75. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,300.00. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 2,378.25 and then at 2,408.75.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,352.50 and then
at 2,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.90 at 1,288.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a fresh
five-month high close today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the July high of 1,354.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,225.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,291.80 and then at 1,300.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1,279.30 and then at this week’s
low of 1,267.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 10 points at 12,400 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh
five-month high close. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 12,500. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the December low of 11,665. First resistance in the Dow
lies at this week’s high of 12,450 and then at 12,500.
First support is seen at today’s low of 12,345 and then at
this week’s low of 12,275. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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