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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--January 19

Jan 20, 2012

Thursday Evening, January 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $1.20 at $127.85
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh four-week high. Improving cash cattle market
fundamentals are bullish for futures this week. Cattle
futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage and
gained more upside momentum today. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $127.90.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $125.50. First resistance is seen at $127.90 and
then at $128.55. First support is seen at $127.45 and then
at $127.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed up $1.22 at $154.00 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh
contract high today. Feeder bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage and there are still no early technical
clues that a market top is close at hand. The next upside
price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above technical resistance at $155.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $151.35.
First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
$154.02 and then at $154.50. First support is seen at
$153.47 and then at $153.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.42 at $87.50 today. Prices
closed near the session low on a corrective pullback from
recent gains. Cash hog market fundamentals have improved
recently. While hog bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, a bullish double-bottom reversal
pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push
and close prices above solid chart resistance at $89.42.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $85.50. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $88.20 and then at the January high of
$88.85. First support is seen at $87.00 and then at $86.80.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 10 1/4 cents at
$6.03 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw short covering in a bear market. Serious
near-term chart damage has been inflicted in corn recently.
Corn bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.20. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of $5.76 1/4.
First resistance for March corn is seen at this week’s high
of $6.11 3/4 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at
$6.00 and then at $5.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March soybeans closed up 13 cents at $11.96 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Near-term chart damage has
been inflicted in soybeans recently. Soybean bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the December high of $12.18 3/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below technical support at the
January low of $11.50. First resistance is seen at $12.00
and then at $12.13 1/2. First support is seen at today’s
low of $11.81 1/2 and then at $11.72 1/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

March soybean meal closed up $3.10 at $315.10 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$324.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $296.40. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $316.00 and then at $320.00.
First support is seen at $312.50 and then at today’s low of
$310.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March bean oil closed up 62 points at 51.02 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bean oil bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 52.55 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.24 cents and
then at 51.50 cents. First support is seen at 50.75 cents
and then at today’s low of 50.45 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 13 cents at $6.05 1/4
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in bear market. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in wheat recently. Bears still
have the solid near-term technical advantage. Wheat will
remain a follower of corn and beans for at least the near
term. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.25 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $5.77 1/4. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $6.11 3/4 and then at $6.20. First support
lies at $6.00 and then at this week’s low of $5.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 5 cents at $6.58 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted recently. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above major psychological resistance at $7.00. The bears'
next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
$6.35. First resistance is seen at $6.66 and then at this
week’s high of $6.75. First support is seen at this week’s
low of $6.53 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

March oats closed up 7 3/4 cents at $2.92 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Short covering in a
bear market was featured. Oats bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of $2.78
1/2. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above psychological resistance at $3.00.
First support lies at $2.90 and then at today’s low of
$2.85 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.93 1/2 and then at $2.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 84 points at 24.84 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh two-month high. Bulls gained upside technical
momentum today as prices may be posting a bullish upside
“breakout” from the recent sideways trading range at lower
price levels. Short covering and bargain hunting were
featured today. Bulls and bears are now on a level near-
term technical playing field. Sugar bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at 25.50 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
23.52 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
24.88 cents and then at 25.00 cents. First support is seen
at 24.65 cents and then at 24.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

March coffee closed up 105 points at 225.90 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Short covering in a bear
market was featured today. Coffee bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls'
next upside breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the November high of 243.30
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of 216.60 cents a pound. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 227.80 cents and then at this
week’s high of 229.25 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 223.35 cents and then at this week’s low of
221.10 cents and then at 220.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

March cocoa closed up $57 at $2,322 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and saw more short covering. A bullish
pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart just
recently. Cocoa bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$2,388. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,100. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,350 and then at the January high of $2,388. First
support is seen at $2,300 and then at today’s low of
$2,282. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March cotton closed up 64 points at 98.17 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Cotton bulls
have regained the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above major psychological resistance at 100.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 92.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
96.76 cents and then at this week’s low of 95.67 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 98.50 cents and
then at this week’s high of 99.47 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

March orange juice closed up 700 points at $1.9820 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls
are regaining upside power. Price action in FCOJ recently
has been extremely volatile. The recent higher volatility
at higher price levels is still a warning signal that a
market top is in place, or close at hand. Look for the
higher volatility to continue for a bit longer. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices solid technical resistance at
the January high of $2.0775. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$1.8295. First resistance is seen at $2.0000 and then at
today’s high of $2.0120. First support is seen at $1.9500
and then at today’s low of $1.9250. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

March lumber futures closed down $1.70 at $241.20 today.
Prices closed near the session high. The lumber bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $225.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $250.00. First resistance is seen
at $245.00 and then at this week’s high of $247.00 and then
at $250.00. First support is seen at $240.00 and then at
$237.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $5.30 an ounce
at $1,654.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today after hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Profit
taking from recent gains was seen today. Gold bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A three-
week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a
close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,670.60 and then at $1,680.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,649.20 and then
at $1,642.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March silver futures closed down $0.013 an ounce at $30.535
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
five-week high early on. Silver bulls still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $32.50 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $28.55. First
resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $30.335 and then at
$30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 615 points 381.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a
fresh three-month high. The copper market was supported by
a weaker U.S. dollar index today. Copper bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above major psychological resistance at 400.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 359.40 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 382.15 cents and then at 385.00 cents. First
support is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 377.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed down $0.42 a barrel
at $100.16 today. Prices closed near the session low today
and were pressured by a bearish weekly DOE storage report.
Trading remains choppy and right around the key $100.00
level. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the going does get tough for
the bulls once prices move above the key $100.00 level. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at $105.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $95.00.
First resistance is seen at $101.00 and then at this week’s
high of $102.06. First support is seen at $99.00 and then
at last week’s low of $97.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

February heating oil closed up 186 points at $3.0320 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.1364.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.9500. First
resistance lies at $3.0500 and then at $3.0750. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.0100 and then at
$3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 129 points at
$2.8125 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the August high
of $2.9448. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at $2.7178. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.8398 and then at
this week’s high of $2.8529. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.918 and then at 2.7676. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

February natural gas closed down 15.6 cents at $2.316
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
careened to another fresh contract low. Generally warm
weather over much of the U.S. is bearish for nat gas. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There
are no early clues of a market low being close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.75.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.25.
First resistance is seen at $2.40 and then at $2.50. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of $2.311 and then
at $2.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 98 points at 1.2938 today. Prices closed near the
session high today and hit a fresh two-week high on more
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still
no early clues to suggest a market low is close at hand.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.3000. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the
January low of 1.2627. First resistance for the Euro lies
at today’s high of 1.2952 and then at 1.3000. Next support
is seen at 1.2900 and then at today’s low of 1.2841.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 65 points at 1.2967
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. Bulls faded today and need to show
fresh power soon. Bulls still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
November high of 1.3101. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2833. First resistance is seen at 1.3000 and then at
today’s high of 1.3046. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2940 and then at 1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 81 points at 1.0717 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high on more short covering in a bear market.
Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
January high of 1.0768. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 1.0431. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0727 and then at
1.0768. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0632 and
then at 1.0600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 9 points at 1.0338
today. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading.
Prices Wednesday closed at a 2.5-month high close. Bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at the October high of 1.0569. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
January low of 1.0065. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0378 and then at 1.0400. Next support is
seen at 1.0287 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

The March Canadian dollar closed up 10 points at .9874
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend line
is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the December high of .9923. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of .9675.
First resistance is seen at .9923 and then at .9950. First
support is seen at .9850 and then at .9811. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The March British pound closed up 48 points at 1.5465
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 1.5492. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at the
contract low of 1.5222. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.5481 and then at 1.5550. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.5407 and then at 1.5319. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 43 points at 80.38
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
saw more profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading
and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 82.04. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 79.55. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 80.80 and then at 81.00.
First support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.55. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 12/32 at 142 26/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw profit
taking. No chart damage occurred today. The bond market
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of 141 10/32 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 145
13/32. First resistance is seen at 143 even and then at 143
16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 142 12/32
and then at 142 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 19.5 (32nds) at 130.21.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking. No chart damage occurred today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 132.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
January low of 130.03.0. First resistance is seen at
131.00.0 and then at today’s high of 131.12.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 130.16.0 and then at
130.03.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: In late trading, the U.S.
stock indexes were higher again today and again set multi-
month highs. The stock index bulls have good upside
technical momentum on their side.

In late trading, the Nasdaq stock futures index were up
15.75 at 2,436.25. Prices were near the session high and
hit a fresh 11-year high today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,500.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,442.50 and then at 2,434.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,418.50 and then at 2,400.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

In late trading, the S&P 500 futures index was up 7.00
points at 1,309.20. Prices hit another fresh 5.5-month high
again today were near the session high. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the July high of 1,354.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid support at 1,225.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1,311.30 and then at 1,325.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,299.30 and then at
1,286.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

In late trading, the Dow futures were up 36 points at
12,540 today. Prices were near the session high and hit
another fresh 5.5-month high. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 12,700. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of
11,665. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
12,563 and then at 12,600. First support is seen at 12,500
and then at 12,450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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