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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--January 5

Jan 06, 2012

Thursday Evening, January 5-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.45 at
$121.17 today. A stronger U.S. dollar index helped to
pressure the cattle market today. Prices closed near the
session low today. Cattle bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $124.35. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $120.25. First
resistance is seen at $121.50 and then at $122.00. First
support is seen at $120.50 and then at $120.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

March feeder cattle closed up $0.30 at $150.85 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh contract high
today. Feeder bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder
bulls is to push and close prices above technical
resistance at $152.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $148.77.
First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
$151.45 and then at $152.00. First support is seen at
$150.00 and then at $149.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

February lean hogs down $1.17 at $84.00 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Hogs were pressured by
a stronger U.S. dollar index today. Hog bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push
and close prices above solid chart resistance at $86.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $82.62. First resistance is seen at $84.50
and then at $85.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$83.80 and then at $83.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 16 cents at $6.42
1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
some profit taking from recent gains. A stronger U.S.
dollar index also pressured corn today. The corn bulls
faded today and need to show some fresh power soon to keep
the near-term price uptrend in place. Prices are still in a
three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of $6.76 1/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.25. First resistance for
March corn is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.55. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.39 1/2 and then at
$6.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March soybeans closed down 21 1/2 cents at $12.08 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session low and saw
profit taking today. A stronger U.S. dollar index helped to
pressure soybeans today. No significant chart damage
occurred today. Soybean bulls still have the slight near-
term technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $12.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below technical support at $11.75. First resistance
is seen at $12.25 and then at today’s high of $12.33 3/4.
First support is seen at today’s low of $12.06 3/4 and then
at $12.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March soybean meal closed down $6.50 at $314.10 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Meal bulls still
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$325.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $317.50
and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $313.50 and then at $310.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

March bean oil closed down 93 points at 52.10 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and were pressured
by a stronger U.S. dollar index. Bean oil bulls faded a bit
today and need to show fresh power soon. Prices are still
in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of 53.79 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 51.41 cents. First resistance is seen at
52.50 cents and then at 52.67 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 52.05 cents and then at 51.75 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 22 1/4 cents at $6.27
3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
saw more profit taking. Wheat bulls faded today and need to
show fresh power soon. A three-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart was at least temporarily negated today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of $6.70 3/4 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.40 and
then at $6.50. First support lies at today’s low of $6.26
1/2 and then at $6.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 28 cents at $6.86 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls faded today
and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $7.31
1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50.
First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at today’s high
of $7.06. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.86 and
then at $6.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March oats closed down 3 1/2 cents at $2.89 1/2 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
five-week low again today. Oats bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
downside momentum this week. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $2.84 3/4.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$3.00. First support lies at today’s low of $2.88 and then
at $2.84 3/4. First resistance is seen at $2.95 and then at
today’s high of $2.98. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 125 points at 23.17 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index. Bulls quickly
faded today. Sugar bears quickly regained the overall near-
term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 24.65 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
December low of 22.62 cents. First resistance is seen at
23.50 cents and then at 23.75 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 22.90 cents and then at 22.62 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March coffee closed down 880 points at 217.90 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and were pressured by the
stronger U.S. dollar index. Coffee bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 230.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of 212.35 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at 220.00 cents and then
at 222.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
217.55 cents and then at 215.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

March cocoa closed down $58 at $2,017 a ton. Prices closed
near the session low again today and hit a fresh three-week
low. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on this already bearish
market. Cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,274. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $1,983. First resistance is seen at $2,050
and then at $2,100. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2,016 and then at $2,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cotton closed down 118 points at 94.74 cents today.
Prices backed off on some profit taking after hitting a
six-week high Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar index also
pressured cotton today. Cotton bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
major psychological resistance at 100.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the November low of 84.35 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 94.38 cents and then at 94.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 95.92 cents and then
at this week’s high of 96.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

March orange juice closed down 45 points at $1.7760 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw mild profit
taking after prices Wednesday hit a contract high of
$1.8170. Some cold weather in Florida citrus regions has
goosed the bulls this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $1.8500. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at
$1.6800. First resistance is seen at $1.7900 and then at
$1.8000. First support is seen at today’s low of $1.7555
and then at $1.7500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March lumber futures closed up $4.80 at $259.40 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. The lumber bears
have the slight near-term technical advantage amid choppy
trading recently. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $250.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $272.90. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $260.70 and then at $263.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $257.00 and then at this week’s low of
$254.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $10.00 an ounce
at $1,622.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
again today and hit a fresh two-week high. More short
covering and bargain-hunting buying interest was featured,
along with some fresh safe-haven buying demand. Prices are
still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart,
but the bulls have had a good week this week and have
gained some fresh upside technical momentum. The bulls do
still have more work to do in the near term to re-establish
an uptrend on the daily chart. Bulls' next upside technical
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,643.70. Bears' next near-term
downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $1,523.90. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,626.80 and then at
$1,643.70. First support is seen at $1,600.00 and then at
$1,593.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March silver futures closed up $0.268 an ounce at $29.365
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Silver prices are still in a
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $30.21 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below major technical support at last week’s low of
$26.145. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$29.74 and then at $30.00. Next support is seen at $29.00
and then at today’s low of $28.685 and then at $28.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 45 points 343.00 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of 367.40 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of 323.25
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 348.00
cents and then at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 338.45 cents and then at 335.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed down $1.52 a barrel
at $101.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and saw profit taking pressure and pressure from a
stronger U.S. dollar index. Crude oil bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices Wednesday hit
a fresh six-month high. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $105.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $98.00. First resistance is seen at
$102.50 and then at $103.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $101.54 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

February heating oil closed down 512 points at $3.0387
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of $3.1803. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.9300. First resistance lies at $3.0500 and
then at $3.0750. First support is seen at $3.0250 and then
at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 482 points at
$2.7370 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
hit another fresh four-month high today. Prices also scored
a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart
today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the September high of $2.8341. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
today’s low of $2.6050. First resistance is seen at 
$2.7560 and then at today’s high of $2.7970. First support
is seen at $2.7075 and then at $2.6800. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

February natural gas closed down 11.6 cents at $2.98 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices Monday
hit a contract low. Bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.25. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.75. First resistance is
seen at $3.05 and then at this week’s high of $3.123. First
support is seen at the contract low of $2.936 and then at
$2.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 149 points at 1.2795 today. Prices closed near
the session low today and hit a fresh 16-month low. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
gained more power today. Prices are in a nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.3100. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2500. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2869 and then at 1.2900.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2783 and then at
1.2750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 73 points at 1.2970
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and
bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon
to keep it. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the November high
of 1.3101. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 1.2833. First resistance is seen at 1.3000 and then
at 1.3018. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2959
and then at 1.2918. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 119 points at 1.0507
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh 23-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more power today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of
1.0768. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
1.0400. First resistance is seen at 1.0576 and then at
1.0600. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0498 and
then at 1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 100 points at
1.0182 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw some profit taking. Prices Tuesday hit a two-month
high. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the October high of
1.0569. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of .9957. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0282 and then at this week’s high of 1.0350. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0151 and then at
1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 61 points at .9793
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
the December high of .9923. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at .9700. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of .9863 and then at this week’s high of
.9908. First support is seen at today’s low of .9762 and
then at .9721. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed down 124 points at 1.5476
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained
some fresh downside momentum today. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of 1.5761.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the December low of
1.5350. First resistance is seen at 1.5500 and then at
1.5600. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5457 and
then at 1.5400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 81 points at 81.24
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more power today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the December
high of 81.41. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 79.55. Next resistance lies at 81.41 and then at
82.00. First support is seen at 81.00 and then at 80.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 7/32 at 142 6/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today and saw
more profit taking. The bond market bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but are fading and
need to show fresh power soon. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 141 28/32 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of 145 8/32. First resistance is seen at 143 even and then
at today’s high of 143 9/32. First support is seen at 141
28/32 and then at 141 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 2.0 (32nds) at 130.14.5 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more
power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
December high of 131.14.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 129.25.0. First resistance is seen at
130.23.5 and then at today’s high of 130.28.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 130.06.5 and then at
130.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today but in quieter trading. The stock index bulls
still have some upside technical momentum on their side as
the key U.S. employment report approaches Friday morning.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 15.00 at 2,343.75
today. Prices hit a fresh six-week high today and closed
nearer the session high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
October high of 2,408.75. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of 2,204.25. First resistance
is seen at 2,350.00 and then at 2,375.00. First support is
seen at 2,325.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,302.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.80 at 1,274.80.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh two-month high close. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the October high of 1,288.70. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the December low of 1,195.50. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,279.80 and then
at 1,288.70. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,259.80 and then at 1,243.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 10 points at 12,346 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 12,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of
11,665. First resistance in the Dow lies at this week’s
high of 12,410 and then at 12,500. First support is seen at
12,300 and then at today’s low of 12,225. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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