Apr 17, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 16

Jul 17, 2012

Monday Evening, July 16-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.40 at
$116.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
closed at a fresh three-week low close as the bulls are
fading badly. Bears have the near-term technical advantage.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$119.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $115.40. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $117.20 and then at
$117.75. First support is seen at last week’s low of
$116.30 and then at $116.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

August feeder cattle closed down the $3.00 limit at $136.00
today. Prices closed hit a fresh 10-month and contract low.
Sharp gains in the corn market again today slammed feeders
today. Feeder cattle bears are in strong technical command.
This recent sell off in feeders ranks as one of the
steepest I’ve ever seen in nearly 30 years. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$140.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $130.00. First resistance is seen at $137.00 and
then at $138.00. First support is seen at $135.00 and then
at $134.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

August lean hogs closed up $0.02 at $90.42 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh
three-week low early on. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage following Friday’s strong selling pressure and a
bearish weekly low close. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $92.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at the late-June spike low of
$88.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $90.75
and then at $91.00. First support is seen at $90.00 and
then at today’s low of $89.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 33 cents at
$7.73 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a fresh contract high, and were boosted by
the unrelenting heat and dry ness in the U.S. Corn Belt
that is causing a major drought in the region—one not seen
since 1988. Last week’s technically bearish “key reversal”
down on the daily bar chart was rendered moot by today’s
strong gains. It’s still “game on” for the corn market
bulls. However, this is now a mature bull market run that
has likely entered a “blow-off-top” phase. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
major psychological resistance at $8.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.25.
First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s
contract high of $7.78 and then at $7.85. First support is
seen at $7.60 and then at $7.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
10.0

November soybeans closed up 38 cents at $15.90 1/2 a bushel
today and hit a fresh contract and four-year high. The
unrelenting hot and dry Corn Belt weather and more of the
same in the extended weather forecasts is driving the bull
market in grains. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Last week’s technically bearish “key reversal” down
on the daily bar chart for November beans was rendered moot
with today’s big gains. Bean bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$16.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $15.25. First resistance is seen at
$16.00 and then at $16.20. First support is seen at today’s
low of $15.68 and then at $15.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
9.5.

December soybean meal closed up $10.40 at $463.80 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh contract
and four-year high. Last week’s technically bearish “key
reversal” down on the daily bar chart was rendered moot
with today’s solid gains. Meal bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $475.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $433.00. First resistance comes in at today’s
contract high of $470.70 and then at $475.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of $458.00 and then at $450.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5

December bean oil closed up 95 points at 55.49 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh 2.5-month high close. Bean oil bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
53.91 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and
then at 56.50 cents. First support is seen at 55.00 cents
and then at today’s low of 54.79 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 35 1/4 cents at $8.97
3/4 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit a fresh 13-month high. The wheat market is still
closely following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls have the
solid upside near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $9.30 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.50. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $9.01 3/4 and then at $9.15. First
support lies at today’s low of $8.71 and then at $8.56.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 32 cents at $9.03 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh 10-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of $9.22 3/4. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $8.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.09 1/4 and
then at $9.22 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of
$8.77 and then at $8.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5

December oats closed up 7 3/4 cents at $3.82 1/4 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 10.5-
month high. Last week’s technically bearish “key reversal”
down on the daily bar chart was rendered moot with today’s
price gains. Oats bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.60. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $4.00. First support lies
at today’s low of $3.77 1/2 and then at $3.70. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.88 1/2 and then at
$3.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 18 points at 22.91 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored
a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The key “outside markets” were mildly bullish for
sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were firmer. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 23.50 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 21.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 23.05 cents and then at 23.25 cents.
First support is seen at 22.69 cents and then at 22.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed down 225 points at 183.85 cents, on
profit taking. Prices Friday closed at a three-month high
close and closed at a bullish weekly high close. The coffee
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage as it appears a major low is now in place. Prices
are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 192.20 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 175.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 185.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 188.20 cents. First support is seen at 182.50 cents and
then at 180.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September cocoa closed down $3 at $2,213 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Cocoa bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,300.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,085. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,236
and then at $2,250. First support is seen at $2,200 and
then at last week’s low of $2,174. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

December cotton closed up 64 points at 73.30 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a
fresh four-week high. The cotton bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 67.16 cents. First resistance is seen
at 74.00 cents and then at 74.80 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 72.10 cents and then at 71.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

September orange juice closed down 525 points at $1.1730
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh two-week low as the bulls are fading. A gentle seven-
week-old uptrend on the daily chart was negated today.
Bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.3155.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at
$1.2000 and then at today’s high of $1.2325. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1.1665 and then at $1.1500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September lumber futures closed down $5.40 at $285.70
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $277.50. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $297.00. First resistance is seen at $287.50 and
then at $290.00. First support is seen at last week’s low
of $283.50 and then at $282.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed up $1.50 an ounce at
$1,593.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today in tentative trading ahead of Greenspan’s testimony
to the U.S. Senate Tuesday morning. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. That did
limit selling interest in gold today. Trading remains
choppy and sideways on the daily bar chart. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$1,625.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
$1,547.60. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of
$1,596.50 and then at $1,600.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,577.20 and then at $1,565.00. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.01 an ounce at $27.36
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for silver today as the U.S.
dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer.
Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage and trading has been choppy recently. Prices are
in a 4.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$28.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $26.105. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $27.58 and then
at $28.00. Next support is seen at $27.00 and then at
today’s low of $26.86. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 25 points 350.15 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Copper
bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of 355.65 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 338.20 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 350.80 cents and then
at 352.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
346.55 cents and then at 345.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $1.07 a barrel at
$88.17 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and closed at a fresh six-week high close. More short
covering and bargain hunting buying were featured. Recent
price action is still a clue that a market low in crude oil
is in place. The crude bears do still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$90.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $84.00. First resistance
is seen at the June high of $88.98 and then at $90.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $86.41 and then at
$86.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

August heating oil closed up 400 points at $2.8282 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh
seven-week high today. Bears still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage, but a market low is likely
now in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.9000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.6500. First resistance lies at today’s high
of $2.8344 and then at $2.8500. First support is seen at
$2.8000 and then at today’s low of $2.7760. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 379 points at
$2.8540 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit a fresh two-month high. Bulls have gained the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.6800. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2.8600 and then at $2.9000. First support is seen
at $2.8250 and then at $2.8000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

August natural gas closed down 5.6 cents at $2.818 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a
mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $3.06. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at $2.65. First resistance is seen at $2.881 and
then at $2.90. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.781 and then at last week’s low of $2.718. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 31 points at 1.2282 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today on short covering in a bear
market. Prices Friday and hit a two-year low. The Euro
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.2703. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.2000. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high of 1.2301 and then at 1.2350. Next support is
seen at 1.2200 and then at last week’s low of 1.2171.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

The September Japanese yen closed up 65 points at 1.2689
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh four-week high today. Bulls have gained the slight
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-
old uptrend on the daily  bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.2737. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the June low of 1.2416. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2719 and then at 1.2737. First support is
seen at 1.2650 and then at today’s low of 1.2627. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 37 points at 1.0243
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering. Prices Friday hit a two-year low. The bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0500.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 1.0100. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 1.0286 and then at 1.0343. First support is seen at
1.0200 and then at last week’s low of 1.0142. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 26 points at
1.0189 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of
1.0325. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
.9894. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0201
and then at last week’s high of 1.0217. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0142 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The September Canadian dollar closed down 8 points at .9837
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have
gained the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at .9925. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of .9632. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of .9858 and then at
the July high of .9885. First support is seen at today’s
low of .9816 and then at .9787. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The September British pound closed up 70 points at 1.5634
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering. Bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the June high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
last week’s low of 1.5390. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.5653 and then at the July high of 1.5720.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5390 and then at
1.5300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 23 points at
83.23 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
saw some profit taking from recent gains. Greenback bulls
still have upside near-term technical momentum and have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of 84.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at 83.50 and then at
today’s high of 83.77. First support is seen at today’s low
of 83.13 and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 13/32 at 151 19/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh six-week
high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 148 even. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of 152 19/32.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 152 10/32 and
then at 152 19/32. First support is seen at today’s low of
151 6/32 and then at 150 22/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 6.5 (32nds) at 134.24.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh
contract high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 136.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 133.00.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of 135.00.5 and then at 135.08.0.
First support is seen at today’s low of 134.17.5 and then
at 134.11.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today as the bulls and bears struggle for near-term
price control amid recent choppy trading. It was a mild a
“risk-off” trading day in the market place Monday. In
overnight news, China’s chief central bank official said
China’s economic recovery is not yet stable and sluggish
growth could continue for a while. That is a bearish
underlying factor for most markets. Also, the International
Monetary Fund on Monday reduced its world economic growth
forecast by 0.1%, to its lowest expected world growth pace
since 2009. Reports overnight said the European Central
Bank has recently shifted its stance on how to work to
rescue troubled European banks. The ECB reportedly now
wants to allow senior bank bond-holders to be the first to
absorb losses. The ECB reports did push up Spanish and
Italian bond yields Monday. The big news of the week for
the market place will very likely be Fed Chairman
Bernanke’s speech before the U.S. Senate on Tuesday
morning. Traders and investors will be closely scrutinizing
Bernanke’s remarks for any fresh clues on easing of U.S.
monetary policy forthcoming. Many believe the U.S. central
bank will embark on another round of quantitative easing of
monetary policy in the near future—QE3. Those notions were
bolstered Monday when a weaker-than-expected U.S. retail
sales report was issued. Most markets, including precious
metals, would likely react in a bearish way if the Fed
chief offers no fresh hints on QE3 forthcoming on Tuesday.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 5.50 at
2,571.50. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,503.50. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,584.50 and then at 2,600.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,561.25 and then at
2,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 4.30 at 1,347.40.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,302.70. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 1,356.30 and then at the July high of
1,374.90. First support is seen at Friday’s low of 1,329.20
and then at last week’s low of 1,320.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 64 points at 12,648 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 12,890. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,300. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 12,700 and then at
12,765. First support is seen at 12,600 and then at 12,560.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions