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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 17

Jul 18, 2012

Tuesday Evening, July 17-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $1.32 at
$115.47 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
hit a fresh three-week low. Cash cattle market fundamentals
are deteriorating amid the intense U.S. heat wave that has
sapped consumer demand and prompted cattle herd
liquidation. Cattle futures bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $118.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $114.70. First
resistance is seen at $116.00 and then at $116.50. First
support is seen at the June low of $115.40 and then at
$115.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

August feeder cattle closed down $1.80 at $134.20 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh 10-month
and contract low. Recent sharp gains in the corn market and
herd liquidation have slammed feeders. Feeder cattle bears
are in strong technical command. This recent sell off in
feeders ranks as one of the steepest I’ve ever seen in
nearly 30 years. The next upside price breakout objective
for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $137.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $130.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $134.90 and then at
$136.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $133.10
and then at $132.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

August lean hogs closed down $0.47 at $89.95 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh
three-week low close. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage as cash hog market fundamentals have
deteriorated. The next upside price breakout objective for
the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $92.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at the late-June spike low of $88.10.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $90.80 and then
at $91.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$89.75 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 5 1/4 cents at
$7.67 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and did hit another fresh contract high early on. Profit
taking was featured. Importantly, the corn market could get
no traction today from a bigger-than-expected deterioration
in the corn crop in the latest USDA crop progress data,
reported late Monday afternoon. Any time a market cannot
rally on fresh, significantly bullish fundamental news,
that’s a clue all the bullish news has already been
factored into the present futures price structure. This is
another clue that the corn market is not far from a major
market top. There is also now talk in the market place that
most of the damage done to the U.S. corn crop has already
occurred. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above major psychological resistance
at $8.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $7.25. First resistance for December
corn is seen at $7.78 and then at today’s contract high of
$7.89. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.62 1/4
and then at $7.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

November soybeans closed down 5 1/2 cents at $15.85 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low but did
hit another fresh contract and four-year high early on.
Profit taking was featured. Importantly, the soybean market
also could get no traction today from a bigger-than-
expected deterioration in the bean crop in the latest USDA
crop progress data, reported late Monday afternoon. Any
time a market cannot rally on fresh, significantly bullish
fundamental news, that’s a clue all the bullish news has
already been factored into the present futures price
structure. This is another clue that the bean market is not
far from a major market top. However, unlike the corn crop,
the soybean crop could still suffer more serious damage if
the drought continues. Bean bulls still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $16.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $15.25. First
resistance is seen at $16.00 and then at today’s high of
$16.07. First support is seen at this week’s low of $15.68
and then at $15.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December soybean meal closed down $0.50 at $463.30 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit taking
after prices Monday hit a contract and four-year high. Meal
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $475.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $433.00.
First resistance comes in at Monday’s contract high of
$470.70 and then at $475.00. First support is seen at
Monday’s low of $458.00 and then at $450.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 9.0

December bean oil closed down 33 points at 55.17 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some
profit taking. Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 53.91 cents.
First resistance is seen at 55.20 cents and then at 55.50
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 54.74 cents
and then at 54.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed steady at $8.98 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 13-month
high. The wheat market is still closely following corn and
soybeans. Wheat bulls have the solid upside near-term
technical advantage. However, this is now a very mature
bull market run. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $9.30 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $8.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $9.10 3/4 and then at $9.25. First support lies at
today’s low of $8.78 3/4 and then at this week’s low of
$8.71. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 2 cents at $9.05 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
10-month high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bull market run is now
very mature. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the contract high of $9.22 3/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.50. First resistance is seen
at $9.22 3/4 and then at $9.35. First support is seen at
today’s low of $8.88 and then at this week’s low of $8.77.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December oats closed down 1 1/4 cents at $3.81 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 10.5-
month high early on. Oats bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.60. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above major psychological resistance at $4.00. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.77 and then at $3.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.89 3/4 and
then at $3.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 5 points at 22.82 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Prices
are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 23.50 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 21.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 23.05 cents and
then at 23.25 cents. First support is seen at 22.69 cents
and then at today’s low of 22.46 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed down 175 points at 182.20 cents, on
more profit taking. The coffee bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage but need to show
fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are still in a four-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The coffee bulls'
next upside breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 192.20
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
175.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 184.35 cents and then at this week’s high of 188.20
cents. First support is seen at 180.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 179.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September cocoa closed up $5 at $2,202 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh three-
week low early on. Cocoa bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,300. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,085.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,236 and
then at $2,250. First support is seen at last week’s low of
$2,174 and then at today’s low of 21.59 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

December cotton closed down 242 points at 70.88 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The cotton
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
June high of 74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 67.16 cents. First
resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 73.40 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and
then at last week’s low of 69.66 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

September orange juice closed down 10 points at $1.1785
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh two-week low early on as the bulls are fading. Bulls
and bears are presently on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.3155. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at
$1.2000 and then at this week’s high of $1.2325. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.1580 and then at
$1.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

September lumber futures closed up $1.90 at $287.60 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$277.50. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $297.00. First
resistance is seen at $290.00 and then at this week’s high
of $291.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $286.00
and then at last week’s low of $283.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $1.70 an ounce
at $1,589.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Bargain hunters stepped in at the lower price levels
seen at mid-morning to lift prices by the close. Trading
remains choppy and sideways on the daily bar chart. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
July high of $1,625.70. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,547.60. First resistance is seen at $1,600.00
and then at $1,610.00. First support is seen at Monday’s
low of $1,577.20 and then at today’s low of $1,571.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.054 an ounce at
$27.375 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart. Silver bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage and trading has been choppy recently.
Prices are still in a 4.5-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of $28.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $26.105. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $27.595 and then at
$28.00. Next support is seen at $27.00 and then at today’s
low of $26.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 225 points 346.25 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of 355.65 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 338.20 cents. First
resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 351.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
343.25 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $0.63 a barrel at
$89.06 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh seven-week high. More short covering and
fresh bargain hunting buying were featured today. Recent
price action is a clue that a market low in crude oil is in
place. The crude bears do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $84.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $89.46 and then at $90.00. First support is
seen at $88.00 and then at today’s low of $87.41. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

August heating oil closed up 106 points at $2.8383 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh seven-
week high today. Bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage, but a market low is likely now in
place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.9000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.7000. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $2.8586 and then at
$2.8750. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.8183
and then at $2.8000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 75 points at
$2.8472 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and did hit a fresh nine-week high early on. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.6800. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2.8898 and then at $2.9000. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2.8316 and then at $2.8000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

August natural gas closed down 0.04 cents at $2.797 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
slight near-term technical advantage, but need to show
fresh power soon to keep it. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of $3.06. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $2.65. First
resistance is seen at $2.85 and then at this week’s high of
$2.915. First support is seen at last week’s low of $2.718
and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 19 points at 1.2305 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today on tepid short covering in a
bear market. The Euro bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.2703. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2327 and
then at 1.2350. Next support is seen at 1.2250 and then at
last week’s low of 1.2171. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

The September Japanese yen closed down 48 points at 1.2649
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on some
profit taking. Bulls still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.2737. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
1.2416. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.2719 and then at 1.2737. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.2627 and then at 1.2600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 10 points at 1.0246
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid
short covering. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage in the Swissy. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.0500. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 1.0100.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.0286 and
then at 1.0343. First support is seen at 1.0200 and then at
last week’s low of 1.0142. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 64 points at
1.0258 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained some fresh upside
momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the April
high of 1.0325. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0262 and then at 1.0300. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0177 and then at this week’s low of
1.0142. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The September Canadian dollar closed up 23 points at .9865
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at .9925. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of .9632. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of .9858 and then at
the July high of .9885. First support is seen at this
week’s low of .9816 and then at .9787. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

The September British pound closed up 25 points at 1.5650
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the June high of 1.5773.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
1.5390. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5676
and then at the July high of 1.5720. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1.5552 and then at this week’s low of
1.5515. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 8 points at
83.13 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
saw some more profit taking from recent gains. Greenback
bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum and
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of
84.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 83.69 and then at this week’s high of 83.77. First
support is seen at today’s low of 83.03 and then at 82.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 29/32 at 150 28/32
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 148 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
152 19/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 151
24/32 and then at this week’s high of 152 10/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 150 25/32 and then at 150
16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 9.5 (32nds) at 134.16.5
today. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
136.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 133.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 134.27.5 and then at Monday’s contract high of
135.00.5. First support is seen at 134.11.5 and then at
134.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today as the bulls and bears struggle for near-term
price control amid recent choppy trading. Bargain hunters
stepped in to buy in the aftermath of the morning testimony
from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. His semi-annual
monetary policy speech before the U.S. Senate saw traders
and investors generally disappointed the Fed chief’s
remarks did not include any fresh clues on easing of U.S.
monetary policy coming soon. Bernanke did give another
downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy Tuesday. Many still
believe the U.S. central bank will embark on another round
of quantitative easing of monetary policy in the near
future—QE3 and that was mildly bullish for the stock
indexes today. In overnight news, European stocks were
firmer despite another weak German ZEW economic reading,
which was in line with trade expectations. Yields were down
sharply on a Spanish Treasury bill auction Tuesday. Moody’s
ratings agency again downgraded several more Italian banks’
credit ratings late Monday, but the market place took it in
stride.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 15.50 at 2,587.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,503.50. First resistance is seen at
2,600.00 and then at 2,625.00. First support 2,575.00 and
then at today’s low of 2,548.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.90 at 1,359.40.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,302.70. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,360.50 and then at the July high of
1,374.90. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,339.50
and then at last week’s low of 1,320.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 89 points at 12,737 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 12,890. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,300. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 12,762 and then at
12,800. First support is seen at 12,700 and then at 12,650.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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