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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 18

Jul 19, 2012

Wednesday Evening, July 18-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed up $2.62 at $118.10
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. However, it was at recent
lows where this market has bottomed out, so I would not be
surprised if the cattle market has put in a near-term low
and can work at least sideways in the near term. Cattle
futures bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $120.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of $114.70. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $118.35 and then at
$119.00. First support is seen at $117.50 and then at
$115.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September feeder cattle closed up the $3.00 limit at
$140.00 today. Heavy short covering in a bear market was
featured today and good follow-through buying strength on
Thursday would suggest a market low is in place. Feeder
cattle bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $143.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s contract low of $136.15. First resistance is seen at
$141.00 and then at $142.00. First support is seen at
$139.00 and then at today’s low of $138.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

August lean hogs closed up $2.67 at $92.62 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw heavy short
covering. Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $95.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at the this week’s low of
$89.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.80
and then at $93.50. First support is seen at $92.00 and
then at $91.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 10 cents at
$7.81 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and closed at a fresh contract high close. The bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a
steep uptrend is in place from the June low. However, this
has market has quickly turned into a mature bull market,
with most of the speculative bulls having already made
their play. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above major psychological resistance
at $8.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $7.25. First resistance for December
corn is seen the contract high of $7.89 and then at $8.00.
First support is seen at $7.75 and then at $7.62 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

November soybeans closed up 26 1/4 cents at $16.17 a bushel
today. Nearby August soybean futures hit a new all-time
record high of $16.79 today. November futures prices closed
near the session high and hit another fresh contract high
today. It’s likely that soybeans will now take over the
lead from the corn market in big grain market moves in the
coming weeks. Soybean bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. However, the bean market’s bull run is
now a mature one. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing November prices above solid technical resistance at
$16.50 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $15.61 1/2. First resistance is seen
at today’s contract high of $16.18 1/4 and then at $16.25.
First support is seen at $16.00 and then at today’s low of
$15.76. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0.

December soybean meal closed up $12.90 at $478.60 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh contract high. Meal bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $490.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$455.90. First resistance comes in at today’s contract high
of $479.30 and then at $482.50. First support is seen at
$475.00 and then at $470.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0

December bean oil closed down 30 points at 54.69 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
profit taking. Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 53.91 cents.
First resistance is seen at 55.00 cents and then at today’s
high of 55.19 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 54.13 cents and then at last week’s low of 53.91 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents at $9.02
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh 13-month high close. The wheat market is
still closely following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls have
the solid upside near-term technical advantage. However,
this is now a very mature bull market run. Wheat bulls’
next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago
SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $9.30 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.50. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $9.10 3/4 and then at $9.25. First
support lies at today’s low of $8.79 3/4 and then at this
week’s low of $8.71. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 6 1/2 cents at $9.18 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh 10-month high close. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bull
market run is now very mature. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of $9.22
3/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $8.50.
First resistance is seen at $9.22 3/4 and then at $9.35.
First support is seen at today’s low of $8.95 and then at
$8.88. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December oats closed up 2 3/4 cents at $3.83 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh
10.5-month high close. Oats bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.60. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $4.00. First support lies
at today’s low of $3.75 and then at $3.70. First resistance
is seen at Tuesday’s high of $3.89 3/4 and then at $3.95.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 10 points at 22.89 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at 23.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 21.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 23.05 cents and then at 23.25 cents. First
support is seen at 22.69 cents and then at 22.46 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed up 15 points at 182.00 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The coffee
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
192.20 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 175.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at 184.35 cents and then at this week’s high of 188.20
cents. First support is seen at 180.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 177.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September cocoa closed up $10 at $2,205 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short
covering.. Cocoa bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,300. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,085.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,236 and
then at $2,250. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$2,159 and then at $2,150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December cotton closed up 92 points at 71.97 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 67.16 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 72.92 cents and then at this week’s high
of 73.40 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 70.45 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

September orange juice closed down 205 points at $1.1560
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
three-week low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart. Bears now have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.2500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at $1.1750 and
then at today’s high of $1.1945. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.1300 and then at $1.1000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

September lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $284.80
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$277.50. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $297.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $286.50 and then at
$290.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $283.50
and then at $280.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $17.90 an ounce
at $1,571.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Trading remains choppy and sideways on the daily bar
chart. Bulls faded a bit today and the bears now have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at the July high of $1,625.70.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,547.60. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,585.70 and then at
$1,600.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,567.20 and then at the July low of $1,554.40. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 4.5

September silver futures closed down $0.221 an ounce at
$27.095 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Silver
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and
trading has been choppy recently. Prices are still in a
4.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the July high of $28.445 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of $26.105. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $27.345 and then at this week’s high of
$27.595. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $26.72
and then at the July low of $26.425. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 120 points 346.75 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Copper
bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July
high of 355.65 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 338.20 cents. First
resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at this week’s
high of 351.25 cents. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 343.25 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $0.69 a barrel at
$89.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh seven-week high. More short covering and
fresh bargain hunting buying were featured today. Recent
price action is a clue that a market low in crude oil is in
place. The crude bulls and bears are now on a level near-
term technical playing field. Prices are in a three-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$92.50 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $84.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $90.04 and then at $91.00. First
support is seen at $89.00 and then at today’s low of
$88.59. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

August heating oil closed up 384 points at $2.8806 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
two-month high. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-
term technical playing field as prices are in a three-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.9500. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.7000. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $2.8819 and then at $2.9000. First support
is seen at $2.8500 and then at today’s low of $2.8280.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 376 points at
$2.8826 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh nine-week high. Bulls have the slight near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.6800. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.9037 and then at $2.9250. First support is seen at
$2.8500 and then at $2.8316. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

August natural gas closed up 17.0 cents at $2.966 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a fresh
4.5-month high close today. Bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage and gained some fresh upside momentum
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the July high of $3.06. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $2.70. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.02 and then at $3.06. First support is
seen at $2.90 and then at $2.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 6 points at 1.2291 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The Euro bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2703.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.2327
and then at 1.2350. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2225 and then at last week’s low of 1.2171. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5

The September Japanese yen closed up 51 points at 1.2702
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.2737. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 1.2416. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.2719 and then
at 1.2737. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.2627 and then at 1.2600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 1 point at 1.0239
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage in the Swissy. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0500. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 1.0100. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.0286 and then
at 1.0343. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0186
and then at last week’s low of 1.0142. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 57 points at
1.0313 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit another fresh 2.5-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage and gained some fresh upside
momentum this week. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the April high of 1.0325. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the July low of 1.0040. First
resistance is seen at 1.0325 and then at 1.0410. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0231 and then at
1.0177. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The September Canadian dollar closed up 22 points at .9885
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh two-month high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at .9925. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the July low of
.9740. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9888
and then at .9900. First support is seen at today’s low of
.9840 and then at this week’s low of .9816. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The September British pound closed up 5 points at 1.5649
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
tepod covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of 1.5773. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5390.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.5676 and
then at the July high of 1.5720. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.5578 and then at this week’s low of
1.5515. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 8 points at
83.08 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw some more profit taking from recent gains. Greenback
bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum and
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of
84.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the June low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 83.46 and then at 83.69. First support is seen at
83.00 and then at 82.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 4/32 at 151 2/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 148 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of 152 19/32. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 151 17/32 and then at 152 even. First
support is seen at today’s low of 150 24/32 and then at 150
16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 3.5 (32nds) at 134.21.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 136.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
134.26.0 and then at Monday’s contract high of 135.00.5.
First support is seen at today’s low of 134.14.5 and then
at 134.08.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer again today as the bulls have regained the slight
near-term technical advantage in the indexes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 33.00 at 2,620.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,503.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,628.50 and then at the July high
of 2,655.75. First support is seen at 2,600.00 and then at
today’s low of 2,576.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 8.80 at 1,367.30.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,302.70. First resistance is seen at the
July high of 1,374.90 and then at 1,390.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of 1,352.60 and then at this week’s
low of 1,339.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed up 123 points at 12,860 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,400. First resistance in the Dow
lies at the July high of 12,890 and then at 12,950. First
support is seen at 12,800 and then at 12,750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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