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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 19

Jul 20, 2012

Thursday Evening, July 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed up $1.57 at
$124.40 today. Prices closed near the session high again
today, hit a fresh three-week high and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Today’s good follow-through
buying after Wednesday’s strong gains is a solid clue the
cattle market has put in a near-term low and can work at
least sideways in the near term. Cattle futures bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of
$125.80. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $121.00. First resistance is seen at
$124.50 and then at $125.00. First support is seen at
$124.00 and then at $123.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

September feeder cattle closed up $1.52 at $141.52 today.
More heavy short covering in a bear market was featured
today. Today’s good follow-through buying strength
following the limit-up move Wednesday does suggest a market
low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $144.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
this week’s contract low of $136.15. First resistance is
seen at $142.00 and then at $142.50. First support is seen
at $141.00 and then at $140.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

October lean hogs closed down $0.05 at $80.00 today. Prices
closed near the session low today. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $82.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at the this week’s low of
$77.55. First resistance is seen at $80.50 and then at
today’s high of $81.05. First support is seen at today’s
low of $79.85 and then at $79.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 3 1/2 cents at
$7.87 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh contract high. Nearby September corn futures
today established a new all-time record high of $8.16 3/4.
The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as a steep uptrend is in place from the June low.
However, this has market has turned into a very mature bull
market, with most of the speculative bulls having already
made their play. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is
to push and close prices above major psychological
resistance at $8.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.50. First resistance for
December corn is seen the contract high of $7.99 and then
at $8.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.76 1/2
and then at $7.62 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

November soybeans closed up 35 cents at $16.55 a bushel
today. Nearby August soybean futures hit a new all-time
record high of $17.49 today. November futures prices closed
nearer the session high and hit another fresh contract high
today. It’s likely that soybeans will take over the lead
from the corn market in big grain market moves in the
coming weeks. Soybean bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage. However, the bean market’s bull run is
now a very mature one. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing November prices above psychological resistance at
$17.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $15.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s contract high of $16.73 3/4 and then at $16.85.
First support is seen at $16.25 and then at today’s low of
$16.13 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0.

December soybean meal closed up $9.50 at $488.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
contract high. Meal bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $500.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$460.00. First resistance comes in at $495.00 and then at
today’s contract high of $499.00. First support is seen at
$485.00 and then at $480.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0

December bean oil closed up 46 points at 55.31 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bean oil bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of 56.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 53.91 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 55.55 cents and then at this week’s high of 55.69
cents. First support is seen at 55.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 54.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 23 cents at $9.35 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh 13-month high. The wheat market is still closely
following corn and soybeans. Wheat bulls have the solid
upside near-term technical advantage. However, this is a
very mature bull market run. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
$9.77 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $8.80.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.42 3/4 and
then at $9.50. First support lies at $9.25 and then at
today’s low of $9.07 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 17 3/4 cents at $9.41 3/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
10-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bull market run is very
mature. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the contract high of $9.92 3/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $9.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $9.57 1/4 and then at $9.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of $9.19 1/4 and then at
$9.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5

December oats closed up 3 1/2 cents at $3.87 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 10.5-month
high. Oats bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.60. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $4.00. First support lies at today’s low of
$3.82 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $3.75. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.92 1/4 and then at
$3.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 24 points at 23.19 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit a fresh three-month high today. The key “outside
markets” were in a bullish posture for sugar today as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
solidly higher. Sugar prices are in a six-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of 24.19 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 21.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 23.28 cents and then
at 23.50 cents. First support is seen at 23.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 22.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

September coffee closed up 680 points at 188.95 cents.
Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh
three-month high close today. The coffee bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and regained upside
momentum today. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of 192.20 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 175.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 189.40
cents and then at 192.20 cents. First support is seen at
187.50 cents and then at 185.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

September cocoa closed up $41 at $2,245 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw more short covering.
The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for
cocoa today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were solidly higher. Cocoa bears still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$2,300. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,085. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,285 and then at $2,300. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,215 and then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

December cotton closed up 86 points at 72.79 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering
was featured. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were solidly higher. The cotton
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
June high of 74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 67.16 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 73.40 cents and
then at 74.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 71.77 cents and then at 71.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

September orange juice closed down 355 points at $1.1255
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
three-week low today. Prices also scored another bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage and gained more downside
momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective
for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
technical resistance at $1.2500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at $1.1500 and
then at $1.1750. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1.1125 and then at $1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September lumber futures closed down $1.00 at $283.80
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A bullish pennant pattern has formed
on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $277.50.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the February high of $297.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $287.00 and then at $290.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $282.20 and then at
$280.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed up $9.70 an ounce at
$1,580.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Same
story: Trading remains choppy and sideways on the daily bar
chart as bulls and bears struggle for near-term technical
control, with neither gaining much headway. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for gold today
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices
were solidly higher. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the July high of $1,625.70. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at $1,547.60. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,591.50 and then at
$1,600.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$1,567.20 and then at the July low of $1,554.40. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.105 an ounce at
$27.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for
silver today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were solidly higher. Silver bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage and trading has been
choppy recently. Prices are still in a 4.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
$26.105. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$27.595 and then at $28.00. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of $26.72 and then at the July low of $26.425.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 560 points 353.00 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bullish posture for copper
today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil
prices were solidly higher. Copper bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 355.65 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 338.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 354.50 cents and then at 355.65 cents. First
support is seen at 350.00 cents and then at today’s low of
346.95 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $2.64 a barrel at
$92.51 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh two-month high on rising tensions in the
Middle East and amid the weaker U.S. dollar index. More
short covering and fresh bargain hunting buying were
featured today. Recent price action is a clue that a market
low in crude oil is in place. The crude bulls now have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$96.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $86.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $93.94 and then at $95.00. First
support is seen at $92.00 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

August heating oil closed up 668 points at $2.9444 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh two-month high. Bulls have gained the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.7500. First resistance lies at today’s high
of $2.9507 and then at $2.9750. First support is seen at
$2.9250 and then at $2.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 541 points at
$2.9375 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit a fresh 10-week high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.7500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.9428 and then at $2.9750. First support is seen at
$2.9000 and then at today’s low of $2.8850. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

August natural gas closed up 5.4 cents at $3.027 today.
Prices closed near the session high and closed at another
fresh 4.5-month high close today. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and have gained some fresh upside
momentum this week. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of $3.06. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $2.70. First
resistance is seen at $3.06 and then at $3.10. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.925 and then at $2.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 11 points at 1.2283 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today. The Euro bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2703. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2335 and
then at 1.2400. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2237 and then at the July low of 1.2171. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

The September Japanese yen closed up 32 points at 1.2732
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh six-
week high today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained some fresh upside momentum today.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the June high of
1.2895. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the July low of
1.2492. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2766
and then at 1.2800. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.2694 and then at this week’s low of 1.2627. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 11 points at 1.0235
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage in the
Swissy. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0500.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 1.0100. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 1.0286 and then at 1.0343. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0195 and then at last week’s low of
1.0142. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 77 points at
1.0372 today. Prices closed near the session high again
today and hit a fresh four-month high. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside momentum this week. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at the March high of 1.0557. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at this week’s low of 1.0142.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0389 and then
at 1.0410. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0302
and then at 1.0231. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The September Canadian dollar closed up 34 points at .9910
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit another fresh two-month high. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the July low of .9740. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of .9921 and then at .9950. First support is seen at
today’s low of .9882 and then at .9850. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The September British pound closed up 81 points at 1.5719
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering. Prices did hit a fresh four-week high
today. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the June high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
last week’s low of 1.5390. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.5736 and then at 1.5773. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.5634 and then at 1.5578. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 20 points at
82.99 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
some more profit taking from recent gains. Greenback bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but ar
now fading a bit. A bearish double-top reversal could be in
the early stages of forming on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at the June high of 84.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
June low of 81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s high of
83.25 and then at 83.46. First support is seen at today’s
low of 82.80 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed down 21/32 at 150 20/32
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 148 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
152 19/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 151
4/32 and then at 151 17/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 150 11/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed down 8.0 (32nds) at 134.16.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 136.00.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
133.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
134.23.5 and then at the contract high of 135.00.5. First
support is seen at today’s low of 134.14.0 and then at
134.08.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer again today as the bulls have regained the slight
near-term technical advantage in the indexes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 36.75 at 2,656.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a
fresh nine-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,700.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 2,516.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 2,658.00 and then at 2,675.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,623.00 and then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 4.20 at 1,371.50.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-
week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the July low of 1,320.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,375.70 and
then at 1,390.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,366.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,352.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed up 22 points at 12,882 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-week high.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 13,000. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,400. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 12,915 and then at
12,950. First support is seen at today’s low of 12,845 and
then at 12,800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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