Aug 29, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 26

Jul 27, 2012

Thursday Evening, July 26-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I am out of the office this week, spending some time with my wife in
Telluride, Colorado. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will produce
my daily report this week. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll
benefit and enjoy his work, too. --Jim)

***Also, my weekly Top Market Ideas report, normally sent out on Fridays, will be
sent out on this Sunday.

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as
it consolidated some of the decline off last Thursday’s high. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the
aforementioned uptrend line would confirm an end to the rally off June’s low
while opening the door for sideways to lower prices near-term. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 2689.81 are needed to temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 2689.81. Second resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at
2658.00. First support is the reaction low crossing near 2516.50. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 2503.50.

The September S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the
10-day moving average crossing at 1351.59 confirming that a short-term low
has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September
renews this week’s breakout below the June-July uptrend line crossing near
1342.24, the reaction low crossing at 1302.70 is the next downside target.
Closes above last week’s high crossing at 1375.70 are needed to renew the
rally off June’s low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at
1375.70. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1395.50. First support
is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1321.30. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 1320.00.

The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving
average crossing near 12,788 signaling that a short-term low has been
posted. Today’s rally was underpinned by news that European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi pledged to defend the euro thereby easing concerns
over Europe’s debt crisis. Today’s high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Friday. If the Dow extends today’s rally, the
reaction high crossing at 12,977 then the 75% retracement level of the
May-June decline crossing at 13,015 are the next upside targets. If the Dow
renews the decline off last week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 12,492
is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 12,977. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-June
decline crossing at 13,015. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at
12,521. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12,492.

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds closed down 15/32’s at 152-11.

September T-bonds closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it
consolidated some of this week’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s breakout
above June’s high crossing at 152-19, upside targets will be hard to project
now that it is trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 150-27 would confirm that a double top with June’
s high has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at
153-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-27.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 147-23.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the decline off last week’s high. Despite today’s
rebound, September remained below broken support marked by the 10-day moving
average crossing at 89.59. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins. Stochastics and the
RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.36
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the
rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline
crossing at 94.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at 93.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at 94.28. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 87.36. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 84.05.

September heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the decline off last week’s high. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 278.71 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 62%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the
March-June decline crossing at 302.08. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 312.86. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.71. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 270.38.

September unleaded gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidated some of the decline off Monday’s high but remains below the
10-day moving average crossing at 275.55. The mid-range close sets the stage
for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.57 are
needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews
the rally off June’s low, the 62% retracement level of the March-June
decline crossing at 288.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is
the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 288.72.
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline
crossing at 299.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
267.57. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 259.39.

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday and the high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the
rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline
crossing at 3.352 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 2.911 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 3.186. Second
resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at
3.352. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.987. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.911.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday on news that European
Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged to defend the euro. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish
signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below last Thursday’s
low crossing at 82.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted
while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early August. If
September extends the rally off May’s low, weekly resistance crossing at
85.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing
at 84.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.04. First
support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 82.80. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 81.56.

The September Euro closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday
as it consolidated some of its recent losses. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold, diverging and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 123.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If
September extends this year’s decline, monthly support crossing at 118.74 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 123.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
127.03. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 120.51. Second support is
monthly support crossing at 118.74.

The September British Pound closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended
the trading range of the past two-month’s. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews
the rally off July’s low, June’s high crossing at 1.5773 is the next upside
target. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low
crossing at 1.5390 is the next downside target. First resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at 1.5736. Second resistance is June’s high
crossing at 1.5773. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5390.
Second support is June’s low crossing at 1.5266.

The September Swiss Franc closed sharply higher due to short covering on
Thursday as it consolidates some of this year’s decline. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning
neutral to bullish signaling that a low appears to be in or is near. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at .10259 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this
year’s decline, monthly support crossing at .9939 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10259.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at crossing at .10588. First
support is Tuesday’s low crossing at .10040. Second support is monthly
support crossing at .9939.

The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday to renew the rally
off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the
62% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 99.33 is the
next upside target. Support begins with the reaction low crossing at 97.40.
First resistance is today’s high crossing at 99.28. Second resistance is the
62% retracement level of this spring’s decline crossing at 99.33. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 97.40. Second support is June’s
uptrend line crossing near 97.15.

The September Japanese Yen closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as
it consolidated some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends this month’s rally, June’s high crossing at .12895 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
.12652 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance
is today’s high crossing at .12839. Second resistance is June’s high
crossing at .12895. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
.12652. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .12514.

PRECIOUS METALS

October gold closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week’s rally but
remains locked in a three-month old trading range. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. If October gold extends this week’s
rally, the reaction high crossing at 1626.90 is the next upside target.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1550.00 would open the door for a
possible test of May’s low crossing at 1534.30. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 1626.90. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 1644.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1550.00.
Second support is May’s low crossing at 1534.30.

September silver closed higher on Thursday while extending this month’s
trading range. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September renews the rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 29.915 is
the next upside target. If September extends this month’s decline, June’s
low crossing at 26.105 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 29.135. Second resistance is June’s high crossing
at 29.915. First support is June’s low crossing at 26.105. Second support is
weekly support crossing at 24.689.

September copper closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it
consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday’s high. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this
week’s decline, June’s low crossing at 325.00 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 344.01 would temper the
near-term bearish outlook in September copper. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 344.01. Second resistance is this month’s
high crossing at 355.65. First support is the reaction low crossing at
326.50. Second support is June’s low crossing at 325.00.

GRAINS

December Corn closed down 11 3/4-cents at 7.76 1/4.

December corn closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it continues
to consolidate below psychological resistance crossing at 8.00. December
remained under pressure as more showers moved through Chicago. Rains have
been spotty and this week's event was not a game changer, with very warm
temperatures returning next week. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the previous all-time high of $7.99-3/4 could trigger renewed buying,
as the door would be open for additional gains into early August. Initial
support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.45 1/2. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.32 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 8.00.
First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.45 1/2. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 7.32 1/2.

December wheat closed down 17 3/4-cents at 8.97 1/4.

December wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it
consolidated some of Wednesday’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 8.63 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted
while opening the door for additional weakness into early August. If
December renews the rally off June’s low, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77
1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at
9.53 1/4. Second resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 8.16 1/4.

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 3/4-cents at 9.10.

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the
RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this
summer’s rally, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2 is the next upside
target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 9.54. Second
resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2. First support is
Tuesday’s low crossing at 8.75 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 8.72 3/4.

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 22 1/4-cents at 9.66 3/4.

December Minneapolis wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on
Thursday extending this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins to trade.
Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
9.43 1/2 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If December
extends this summer’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at 10.70 3/4 is the
next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 10.34.
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10 70 3/4. First support
is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.43 1/2. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 8.99 1/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

November soybeans closed down 48-cents at 15.67 1/2.

November soybeans closed sharply lower on Thursday following overnight
rains, which moved across upper portions of the Midwest. Today’s low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 15.49 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted while opening the door for a possible decline to this summer’s
uptrend line crossing near 15.05. If November renews this summer’s rally,
psychological resistance crossing at 17.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 16.91 1/2. Second resistance is
psychological resistance crossing at 17.00. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 15.49. Second support is this summer’s uptrend
line crossing near 15.05.

December soybean meal closed down $19.40 at $463.80.

December soybean meal closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 475.40 signaling that a short-term top is in or
near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 455.00 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. If December renews this year’s rally into uncharted
territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is
Monday’s high crossing at 509.80. First support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 455.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 433.00.

December soybean oil closed down 60-pts. at 52.40.

December soybean posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday and is
poised to renew this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is
possible near-term. If December extends this week’s decline, the reaction
low crossing at 51.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day
moving average crossing at 54.25 are needed to temper the near-term bearish
outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.25.
Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 56.00. First support is
Wednesday’s low crossing at 52.08. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 51.36.

LIVESTOCK

August hogs closed up $1.25 at $95.80.

August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally
off last week’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If August extends the rally off lat week’s low, July’s high
crossing at 96.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving
average crossing at 92.67 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is today’s high crossing at 95.95. Second resistance is this
month’s high crossing at 96.15. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 92.67. Second support is July’s low crossing at 89.75.

August cattle closed up $0.22 at 118.17.

August cattle closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of
the past five days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off this month’s low, the
reaction high crossing at 120.55 is the next upside target. If August renews
this month’s decline, April’s low crossing at 114.70 is the next downside
target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 119.10. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.55. First support is July’s
low crossing at 115.45. Second support is April’s low crossing at 114.70.

August feeder cattle closed up $1.32 at $136.00.

August Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while
extending the trading range of the past six days. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 141.50 would confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If August renews this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing
at 132.66 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 136.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 141.50. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 133.10.
Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.66.

FOOD & FIBER

September coffee close lower on Thursday as it extended this week’s decline
below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible. If September extends this
week’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.08 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.20 would
temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews the rally off June
’s low, April’s high crossing at 19.55 is the next upside target.

September cocoa closed sharply higher on Thursday and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Today’s close above the last Thursday’s high crossing at
22.85 tempered the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends today’s
rally, July’s high crossing at 23.75 is the next upside target. If September
renews this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 20.85 is the next
downside target.

October sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 22.57 confirming that a short-term top has been posted.
The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling
that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends
today’s decline, the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing
at 21.62 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June’s
low, February’s high crossing at 24.69 is the next upside target.

October cotton closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while
extending this month’s trading range. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
October extends Wednesday’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 66.70 is
the next downside target. From a broad perspective October needs to close
above 75.00 or below 65.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of June’s
trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating
System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than
my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However,
it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of
any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading
(and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A
VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and
know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into
those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by
thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions