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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 31

Aug 01, 2012

Tuesday Evening, July 31-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $1.47 at
$124.35 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
were pressured by general commodity market weakness and a
corrective pullback from recent gains. Prices Monday hit a
10-week high. Recent gains are still a solid clue the
cattle market has put in a near-term low and can work
sideways to higher in the near term. Cattle futures bulls
and bears are now on a level near-term technical playing
field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the May high of $127.05. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$122.15. First resistance is seen at $125.00 and then at
today’s high of $125.55. First support is seen at $124.00
and then at $123.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

October feeder cattle closed up $0.32 at $141.825 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Feeders appear to
be “basing” at lower price levels, which could mean a
market low is in place. Feeder cattle bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$144.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $138.30. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $142.45 and then at last week’s
high of $143.25. First support is seen at $141.50 and then
at $141.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

October lean hogs closed down $1.72 at $80.25 today. Prices
closed near the session low after hitting a fresh three-
week high today. Prices also scored a big and bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Generally
weak commodity market prices across the board today helped
to pressure hogs, as did a corrective pullback from recent
gains. Bulls faded today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $82.75. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of $79.30. First resistance is seen at $81.00 and then
at $81.50. First support is seen at $80.00 and then at
$79.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: In late trading, December corn futures were down
7 1/2 cents at $8.06 1/2 today. Prices were nearer the
session low today and did hit another fresh contract high
early on. Some mild profit-taking pressure occurred today
amid the generally weak raw commodity sector. The corn
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as a steep uptrend is in place from the June low.
Remember, however, this market is a very mature bull
market. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push
and close prices above psychological resistance at $8.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$7.45 1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at
today’s contract high of $8.20 1/2 and then at $8.25. First
support is seen at $8.00 and then at this week’s low of
$7.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.5

In late-afternoon trading, November soybeans were down 1/2
cent at $16.43 1/2 a bushel today. Prices were near mid-
range. Some profit taking was seen and gains were limited
by the generally weak raw commodity sector today. Soybeans
are taking over the lead from the corn market the bull
market run in the grains. Soybean bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage as the major U.S. drought
worsens. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above psychological resistance at $17.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $15.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $16.63 1/4 and then at $16.75. First support is seen at
today’s low of $16.29 3/4 and then at this week’s low of
$16.17 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

In late trading, December soybean meal was down $1.90 at
$492.60 today. Prices were nearer the session low. Meal
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of $509.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$454.30. First resistance comes in at $500.00 and then at
today’s high of $503.60. First support is seen at today’s
low of $488.40 and then at $485.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 9.0

In late trading, December bean oil was up 27 points at
53.65 cents today. Prices were nearer the session high
today and scoring a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart. Bean oil bulls have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 55.00
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 52.08 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.91 cents and
then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at Monday’s low
of 53.01 cents and then at today’s low of 52.85 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

In late trading, December Chicago SRW wheat was down 18 1/4
cents at $9.09 today. Prices were nearer the session low
today and saw profit taking from recent gains. The wheat
market is still closely following corn and soybeans.
However, there are also bullish fundamentals at work in the
wheat market, including weather problems in the U.S. plains
and the Black Sea wheat regions. Wheat bulls still have the
solid upside near-term technical advantage. However, this
is also a very mature bull market run. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at the contract
high of $9.77 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $8.64
1/4. First resistance is seen at $9.20 and then at this
week’s high of $9.33 1/4. First support lies at $9.00 and
then at $8.87. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

In late trading, December K.C. HRW wheat was down 13 cents
at $9.24 1/2 today. Prices were near mid-range and saw
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bull market run is very
mature. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the contract high of $9.92 3/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $8.74. First resistance is seen
at $9.30 and then at this week’s high of $9.45. First
support is seen at today’s low of $9.13 and then at $9.05.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

In late trading, December oats were down 2 3/4 cents at
$3.85 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Oats bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.57
3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$4.00. First support lies at today’s low of $3.80 1/4 and
then at $3.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.88 and then at this week’s high of $3.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 15 points at 22.65
cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Sugar was
pressured by general selling across the commodity sector
today. Sugar prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage but need to show
fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the July high of 24.00 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 21.65 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 23.00 cents and then
at 23.28 cents. First support is seen at 22.50 cents and
then at today’s low of 22.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed down 370 points at 174.65 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four-
week low today. Bulls have faded. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 185.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 170.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at 177.50 cents and then at this
week’s high of 178.90 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 172.70 cents and then at 170.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

September cocoa closed up $29 at $2,370 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh four-
month high, closed at a bullish monthly high close today,
and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Cocoa bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $2,455. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,250.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,387 and then
at $2,400. First support is seen at $2,350 and then at
$2,325. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December cotton closed up 30 points at 71.43 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range again today as choppy and
sideways trading action continues. The cotton bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
this market still may be “basing” at lower price levels,
which means a market low could be in place. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 67.16 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 72.35 cents and then at 73.00 cents.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.50 cents and
then at 70.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

September orange juice closed down 375 points at $1.0850
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today,
hit a fresh six-week low and closed at a bearish monthly
low close today. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more power today. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2000. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the May low of $1.0000. First resistance is seen at
$1.1000 and then at today’s high of $1.1265. First support
is seen at the June low of $1.0765 and then at $1.0500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

September lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $281.00
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
three-week low. Bulls have faded again and are back on a
level near-term technical playing field with the bears. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $277.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $296.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $282.30 and
then at $285.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$280.00 and then at $277.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $8.00 an ounce
at $1,616.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and scored a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the
daily chart—whereby the high is higher and low is lower
than the previous day’s session, with a lower close. The
gold market bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field as bulls and bears struggle for
near-term control. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the June high of $1,646.40. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance
is seen at $1,625.00 and then at last week’s high of
$1,633.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,614.20 and then at Friday’s low of $1,604.90. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 5.0

September silver futures closed down $0.088 an ounce at
$27.935 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting another fresh four-week high early on today.
Silver bulls have gained a bit of fresh upside near-term
technical momentum recently. Silver bears do still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage, however.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of
$28.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $26.575. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.335 and then at
$28.445. Next support is seen at today’s low of $27.865 and
then at this week’s low of $27.515. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 30 points 341.90 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Copper
bulls and bears are presently on a near-term level
technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the July high of 355.65 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 333.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 345.70 cents and then at 347.50 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 340.25 cents and then
at Friday’s low of 337.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

*. ENERGIES: September crude oil closed down $2.16 a barrel
at $87.62 today. Prices closed near the session low today
and saw more profit-taking and selling pressure on general
raw commodity market weakness. Crude oil bulls still have
the slight near-term technical advantage, but did fade a
bit today and need to show fresh power soon. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $93.25 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
$86.00. First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at
$89.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.52 and
then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

September heating oil closed down 539 points at $2.8275
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need
to show fresh power soon. Prices are still in a five-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.7500. First resistance
lies at $2.8500 and then at today’s high of $2.8824. First
support is seen at $2.8000 and then at last week’s low of
$2.7917. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 555 points
at $2.7629 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.9000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
$2.6551. First resistance is seen at $2.8000 and then at
this week’s high of $2.8258. First support is seen at
$2.7500 and then at $2.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September natural gas closed up 0.3 cents at $3.217 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh 6.5-
month high today. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly
high close today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the July high of $3.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $2.90. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.277 and then at $3.30. First support is
seen at today’s low of $3.157 and then at $3.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 48 points at 1.2317 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a
bear market. The Euro bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.2500. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of
1.2051. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.2338 and then at last week’s high of 1.2397. Next
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2233 and then at
1.2171. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed up 5 points at 1.2807
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the June high of 1.2895. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2600. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2820 and then at last week’s high of
1.2854. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2777 and
then at this week’s low of 1.2737. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 42 points at 1.0260
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage in the Swissy. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.0400. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 1.0040.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0277 and then
at last week’s high of 1.0324. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 1.0190 and then at 1.0142. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

The September Australian dollar closed up 10 points at
1.0467 today. Prices closed near mid-range today, hit a
fresh five-month high and closed at a bullish monthly high
close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the March
high of 1.0557. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 1.0125. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.0492 and then at 1.0557. Next
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0402 and then at
1.0336. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The September Canadian dollar closed down 8 points at .9963
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit
another fresh 2.5-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of .9761. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of .9987 and then at 1.0000. First support is
seen at this week’s low of .9936 and then at .9900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The September British pound closed down 28 points at 1.5678
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls have
the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the June high of
1.5773. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
1.5456. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5729
and then at 1.5773. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.5625 and then at 1.5550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 18 points at
82.68 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Greenback
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but are fading a bit. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 84.24. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the June low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at this week’s high of 83.04
and then at 83.25. First support is seen at today’s low of
82.56 and then at last week’s low of 82.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 13/32 at 151 13/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 148 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s contract high of 153 11/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 151 20/32 and then at
152 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 150 17/32
and then at 150 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 5.5 (32nds) at 134.23.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s
contract high of 135.15.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 133.00.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 134.28.0 and then at 135.00.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 134.13.0 and then at
134.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker again today in more tentative trading. Focus of the
market place this week is on the two-day FOMC meeting of
the U.S. Federal Reserve, which started Tuesday morning and
ends Wednesday afternoon, and the European Central Bank’s
policy meeting and press conference on Thursday. The Bank
of England also meets to discuss its monetary policy, with
results on Thursday. Market watchers will be closely
scrutinizing these central bank meetings for any fresh
clues on the implementation of quantitative easing of
monetary policies. The ECB is expected by many to announce
a fresh monetary stimulus package. Such would be at least
initially bullish for many markets. After the batch of
central bank meetings are out of the way, focus of the
market place will quickly turn to the U.S. employment
report on Friday morning. In overnight news, there was more
downbeat EU economic data released, as the unemployment
rate in the EU rose to above 11%--its highest level since
EU record-keeping began in 1995. Tuesday is the last
trading day of the month, which makes it a more important
day from a technical standpoint.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 1.25 at
2,634.50. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the July low of 2,516.50. First
resistance is seen at the July high of 2,658.00 and then at
2,675.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
2,628.75 and then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 8.80 at 1,371.70.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of 1,387.30 and then at
1,400.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,371.00
and then at 1,353.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 66 points at 12,935 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of 13,280.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 12,400. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,000 and then at today’s
high of 13,024. First support is seen at today’s low of
12,935 and then at 12,900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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