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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--July 9

Jul 10, 2012

Monday Evening, July 9-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.15 at
$119.05 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for the cattle market today
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices
were higher. Bulls need to show fresh power soon to avoid
fresh chart damage. Bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of $121.50. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of $115.40. First resistance is seen at $119.50 and
then at $120.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$118.40 and then at $118.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

August feeder cattle closed down $2.25 at $144.27 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 9.5-
month low. More sharp gains in corn futures today and
drying pasture lands in cattle country have put strong
downside price pressure on the feeders. Feeder cattle bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $146.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at $142.50. First resistance is
seen at $145.00 and then at $145.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of $143.70 and then at $143.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

August lean hogs closed up $0.65 at $93.95 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the hog market today as the U.S.
dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher.
Hog bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
last week’s high of $96.15. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at $91.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $94.60 and then at $95.00. First support
is seen at $93.50 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 38 cents at
$7.31 today. Prices closed near the session high again
today, hit a fresh contract and four-year high, and were
boosted by the ongoing major weather market in the U.S.
Corn Belt. Prices traded up the 40-cent limit for part of
the trading session. The Corn Belt forecast is for cooler
temps this week, but with little to no rainfall. That
continues to be very bullish for the grain markets. The key
“outside markets” were also bullish for the corn market
today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil
prices were higher. Corn bulls are still technically strong
and still bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $7.00. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today’s contract high of $7.33 and
then at $7.40. First support is seen at $7.25 and then at
$7.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0

November soybeans closed up 43 1/4 cents at $15.49 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and soared to
another fresh contract and four-year high amid the major
weather market in the Corn Belt. The forecast is still very
dry for the region, even though temps have backed off a
bit. The key “outside markets” were also bullish for the
bean market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and
crude oil prices were higher. However, the weather has been
and will continue to be the trump card for the grains for
at least the near term. Bean bulls are still technically
and still bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above major psychological resistance at $16.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $14.78. First resistance is seen at today’s
contract high of $15.71 1/4 and then at of $15.85. First
support is seen at today’s low of $15.22 1/2 and then at
$15.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0.

December soybean meal closed up $9.80 at $451.40 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh
contract and four-year high today. Meal bulls have the
strong overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $475.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$431.20. First resistance comes in at today’s contract high
of $459.40 and then at $465.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $447.00 and then at $440.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 10.0

December bean oil closed up 121 points at 55.44 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-month high. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the bean oil market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. However,
the weather has been and will continue to be the trump card
for bean oil. Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 57.00 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 52.64 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 56.00 cents and then
at 56.50 cents. First support is seen at 55.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 54.42 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 24 1/4 cents at $8.46
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh 10-month high. The wheat market is closely following
corn and soybeans and there are also some weather problems
in worldwide wheat regions. The key “outside markets” were
also bullish for the wheat market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Wheat
bulls have the solid upside near-term technical advantage.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at the August 2011 high of $8.71 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $8.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $8.58 3/4 and then at $8.71. First support lies at
today’s low of $8.30 and then at Friday’s low of $8.18 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 23 cents at $8.54 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
10-month high. Bulls have strong upside near-term technical
momentum and have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $9.00. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
psychological support at $8.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $8.67 and then at $8.75. First support is
seen at today’s low of $8.37 and then at $8.26 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0

December oats closed up the 20-cent limit at $3.79 1/2
today. Prices hit a fresh 10-month high again today. Oats
are following the major grains on a major bull run. Oats
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.55.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above major psychological resistance at
$4.00. First support lies at $3.75 and then at $3.70. First
resistance is seen at $3.85 and then at $3.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 9.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 38 points at 22.63 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
11-week high. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
the sugar market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker
and crude oil prices were higher. Prices are in a five-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at 23.50 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 21.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 22.87 cents and then
at 23.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
22.25 cents and then at 22.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

September coffee closed up 520 points at 181.65 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh seven-week high close. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. The
bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
as it appears a major low is now in place. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 190.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 165.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 182.80
cents and then at 184.40 cents. First support is seen at
180.00 cents and then at 177.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

September cocoa closed up $70 at $2,322 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the cocoa market today as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
higher. Cocoa bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $2,480. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,200. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,340 and then at
last week’s high of $2,375. First support is seen at $2,300
and then at $2,271. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December cotton closed up 7 points at 70.69 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for the cotton market today
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices
were higher. Yet, cotton could get no upside traction.
That’s a bearish clue for cotton. The cotton bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the June high of
74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 64.61 cents. First
resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at last week’s
high of 72.75 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents
and then at 68.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September orange juice closed up 190 points at $1.2900
today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh
nine-week high today. FCOJ bulls now have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage as a market low
appears to be in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.3500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at $1.3000 and
then at $1.3250. First support is seen at $1.2750 and then
at today’s low of $1.2525. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September lumber futures closed up $4.10 at $292.00 today.
Prices hit a fresh six-week high today and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $282.80. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $297.00. First
resistance is seen at $294.00 and then at $295.00. First
support is seen at $290.00 and then at today’s low of
$287.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: August gold futures closed up $11.10 an ounce at
$1,590.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw short covering and bargain hunting following
Friday’s sharp losses. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker
and crude oil prices were higher. The gold market bulls and
bears are still on a level near-term technical playing
field amid choppy trading conditions. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at the June high of $1,642.40.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,547.60. First
resistance is seen at $1,600.00 and then at Friday’s high
of $1,610.60. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,576.00 and then at $1,565.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.0

September silver futures closed up $0.050 an ounce at
$27.42 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for silver today as
the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
higher. Silver bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has been choppy recently.
Prices are still in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $28.445 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of $26.105. First
resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $27.795 and then at
$28.00. Next support is seen at $27.00 and then at today’s
low of $26.87. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 255 points 343.50 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today on a
short-covering bounce. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Copper bulls and
bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 355.65 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the June low of 325.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 348.10 cents and then at
350.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
339.65 cents and then at 337.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed up $1.26 a barrel at
$85.71 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on short covering and bargain hunting, and due to an oil
workers’ strike in Norway. The weaker U.S. dollar index
today also put upside price pressure on crude. Recent price
action is a solid clue that a market low in crude oil is in
place. The crude bears do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $82.00. First resistance is seen at
$87.00 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at $85.00
and then at today’s low of $84.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

August heating oil closed up 293 points at $2.7392 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
but a market low is likely now in place, or close to it.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the June low of $2.5084.
First resistance lies at today’s high of $2.7670 and then
at last week’s high of $2.7899. First support is seen at
$2.7000 and then at $2.6750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 429 points at
$2.7589 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart today. Bears still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage but it appears a market bottom is now
in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.8500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
$2.5700. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.7764 and then at last week’s high of $2.7950. First
support is seen at $2.7250 and then at $2.7000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

August natural gas closed up 10.8 cents at $2.884 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw a
corrective bounce from Friday’s solid losses and a big
trading range that saw prices hit a 4.5-month high. Bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Prices
are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $3.06. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $2.65. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2.896 and then at the June high of $2.975.
First support is seen at $2.80 and then at $2.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 43 points at 1.2326 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today on short covering after
hitting a fresh two-year low early on. The Euro bears have
gained fresh downside technical momentum and have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2703. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at 1.2200. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2400 and then at 1.2450.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2266 and then at
1.2250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 13 points at 1.2578
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls are
on a level near-term technical playing field with the
bears. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2737. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2300. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.2602 and then at last week’s high of
1.2624. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2547 and
then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September Swiss franc closed down 39 points at 1.0274
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering after hitting a fresh two-year low early on.
The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage in the Swissy. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0500. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of 1.0100. First
resistance is seen at 1.0300 and then at 1.0353. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0278 and then at
1.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The September Australian dollar closed up 14 points at
1.0138 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at the April high of 1.0325. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9894.
First resistance is seen at 1.0200 and then at last week’s
high of 1.0261. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0174 and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The September Canadian dollar closed up 10 points at .9796
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
some short covering. Bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9925. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of .9632. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9806 and then at
.9850. First support is seen at today’s low of .9767 and
then at .9750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September British pound closed up 52 points at 1.5524
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering. Bears have regained the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the June high of 1.5773. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the June low of 1.5266. First resistance is seen at 1.5550
and then at 1.5600. First support is seen at last week’s
low of 1.5458 and then at 1.5400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 24 points at
83.31 today. Prices closed near the session low today on
profit taking after hitting a fresh five-week high early
on. Greenback bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 84.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the June low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 83.63 and
then at 84.00. First support is seen at 83.00 and then at
82.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 20/32 at 150 16/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
four-week high and saw more safe-haven buying. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 148 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the contract high of 152 19/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 150 23/32 and then at
151 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 149 26/32
and then at 149 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 4.5 (32nds) at 134.16.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range, hit a fresh five-week
high and saw more safe-haven buying. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the contract high of 134.30.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
134.20.0 and then at the contract high of 134.30.5. First
support is seen at today’s low of 134.10.5 and then at
134.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today as the bulls are fading in the wake of a weak
U.S. jobs report issued last Friday. Bulls are fading and
need to show fresh power soon.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 1.25 at
2,607.75. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,503.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,615.50 and then at 2,625.00.
First support is seen at Friday’s low of 2,590.50 and then
at 2,575.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 3.00 at 1,348.80.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,400.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,302.70. First resistance is seen at
Friday’s high of 1,363.60 and then at last week’s high of
1,374.90. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,341.20
and then at 1,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed down 42 points at 12,685 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,300. First resistance in the Dow
lies at Friday’s high of 12,733 and then at 12,785. First
support is seen at today’s low of 12,625 and then at
12,600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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