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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--June 11

Jun 12, 2012

Monday Evening, June 11-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $0.525 at
$120.30 today. Prices closed near the session low today on
some profit taking after hitting a fresh three-week high
early on. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage after prices on Friday produced a bullish weekly
high close. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the May high of $122.40. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $117.80.
First resistance is seen at $121.00 and then at today’s
high of $121.20. First support is seen at $120.00 and then
at $119.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

August feeder cattle closed up $0.87 at $160.25 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and have some fresh near-term momentum on their
side. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of $161.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $158.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $160.27 and
then at $161.00. First support is seen at $160.00 and then
at today’s low of $159.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

August lean hogs closed up $0.25 at $92.70 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two-
month high. Hog market bulls have upside technical momentum
to suggest an uptrend can be sustained. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of
$95.15. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$90.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.80
and then at $93.0. First support is seen at today’s low of
$92.40 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 5 1/2 cents at
$5.92 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on a bit wetter weather forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt in
the near term. Some position evening ahead of Tuesday
morning’s USDA supply and demand report was also seen
today. Corn market bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above psychological
resistance at $6.00. The bulls came close to that on
Friday. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the June low of $5.51. First resistance for July
corn is seen at $6.00 and then at last week’s high of $6.05
1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.88 3/4 and
then at $5.84 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July soybeans closed down 2 cents at $14.24 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week high early on. Some wetter near-term
weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt were mildly
bearish for beans today. Some position evening ahead of
Tuesday morning’s USDA supply and demand report was also
seen today. Bean bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $14.60 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$13.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.45
1/2 and then at $14.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of $14.18 and then at $14.08 1/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

July soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $426.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh three-week high early on. Meal bulls still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
$437.60. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $410.00. First resistance comes in at $440.00
and then at today’s high of $434.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $424.40 and then at $421.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

July bean oil closed up 16 points at 49.62 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bean oil bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
51.28 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the June week’s low of 47.81
cents. First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents and then at
last week’s high of 50.39 cents. First support is seen at
49.00 cents and then at 48.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3/4 cent at $6.31 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Wheat bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders are awaiting Tuesday morning USDA supply and demand
report. Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push
and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at $6.40 and then at last week’s
high of $6.44 3/4. First support lies at $6.25 and then at
$6.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed down 3 cents at $6.53 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of $6.37. First resistance is seen at $6.60 and then at
today’s high of $6.67 1/4. First support is seen at $6.50
and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July oats closed down 8 1/4 cents at $2.95 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart after hitting a
fresh three-week high early on. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2.80. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at today’s high of $3.10 1/4.
First support lies at today’s low of $2.94 1/4 and then at
$2.90. First resistance is seen at $3.00 and then at $3.05.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 41 points at 20.39 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high early on. Short covering in a bear
market was featured. Sugar bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 21.00 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 18.86 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 20.51 cents and
then at 20.93 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 20.00 cents and then at 19.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

July coffee closed down 160 points at 154.00 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit another fresh 21-
month low. Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 170.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 150.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at 156.50 cents and then at 158.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 153.70 cents
and then at 152.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed down $12 at $2,188 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Cocoa bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,300.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the June low of $2,026. First resistance is seen at $2,200
and then at last week’s high of $2,250. First support is
seen at $2,173 and then at $2,150. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

July cotton closed up 219 points at 75.09 cents today.
Prices saw more short covering and bargain hunting in a
bear market. Prices hit a fresh two-week high today.
Traders are awaiting Tuesday morning’s USDA supply and
demand report. Prices are still in a four-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 78.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the June low of 66.10 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 75.74 cents and then at 77.00 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 73.27 cents and then at
72.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July orange juice closed up 15 points at $1.1380 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quiet trading. FCOJ
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.0800. First resistance is seen at $1.1500 and
then at $1.1735. First support is seen at $1.1200 and then
at $1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July lumber futures closed down $0.50 at $286.10 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field amid
choppy trading. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the May low of
$276.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $294.00. First
resistance is seen at $288.00 and then at today’s high of
$289.50. First support is seen at $285.00 and then at
$283.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed up $6.60 an ounce at
$1,598.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
some chart consolidation amid recent choppy trading. Gold
market bulls and bears are struggling for near-term
technical control with neither having much of an edge.
However, bears do have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the June high of $1,642.40. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the May low of $1,529.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,609.30 and
then at the April low of $1,616.30. First support is seen
at today’s low of $1,582.70 and then at $1,575.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5

July silver futures closed up $0.089 an ounce at $28.56
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above major
psychological resistance at $30.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
$26.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $29.00
and then at $29.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$28.255 and then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 485 points 333.35 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Short covering in
a bear market was featured. Copper bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 345.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 308.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
335.00 cents and then at 337.50 cents. First support is
seen at 330.00 cents and then at Friday’s low of 326.35
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: July crude oil closed down $2.22 a barrel at
$81.88 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Prices also closed at a fresh eight-month low close today.
The crude bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. There are still no early technical clues to
suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $87.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $80.00. First
resistance is seen at $82.50 and then at $83.00. First
support is seen at the June low of $81.21 and then at
$80.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

July heating oil closed down 551 points at $2.6170 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are
in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.5000. First resistance
lies at $2.6500 and then at $2.6750. First support is seen
at $2.6000 and then at the June low of $2.5641. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 422 points at
$2.6425 today. Prices closed near the session low. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.5000. First resistance is seen at
$2.6500 and then at $2.6750. First support is seen at
$2.6200 and then at the June low of $2.5971. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

July natural gas closed down 8.2 cents at $2.217 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh
six-week low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and have gained more downside momentum
just recently. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the April low of $2.096. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.285 and then at
$2.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.198 and
then at $2.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 13 points at 1.2504 today. Prices
closed near the session low today after hitting a fresh
three-week high early on. The Euro bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Euro prices are
still in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.2838. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2250. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2600 and
then at today’s high of 1.2680. Next support is seen at
1.2447 and then at 1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed up 5 points at 1.2604
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in
quieter trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but have faded a bit. Prices are still
in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but
now just barely. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
June high of 1.2895. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2435. First resistance is seen at 1.2655 and then at
1.2700. First support is seen at last week’s low of 1.2547
and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed down 16 points at 1.0423
today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh two-week high early on. The bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage in the Swissy. Prices
are in a three-month-old downtrend. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0684. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 1.0280. First
resistance is seen at 1.0500 and then at today’s high of
1.0580. First support is seen at 1.0380 and then at 1.0350.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The September Australian dollar closed down 26 points at
.9794 today. Prices closed near the session low today after
hitting a fresh three-week high early on. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the June low of .9499.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9918 and then
at 1.0000. Next support is seen at .9739 and then at .9661.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The September Canadian dollar closed down 20 points at
.9677 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
did hit a fresh three-week high early on. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9800. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9500. First resistance is seen at
.9700 and then at .9750. First support is seen at .9639 and
then at .9600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September British pound closed up 35 points at 1.5487
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.5700. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the June low of 1.5266. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.5593 and then
at 1.5650. First support is seen at 1.5400 and then at
1.5319. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 5 points at 83.06
today. Prices closed near the session high today after
hitting a fresh three-week low early on. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the June high of 84.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 81.50.
Next resistance lies at 83.45 and then at 83.65. First
support is seen at 82.50 and then at today’s low of 82.10.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 25/32 at 149 14/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on safe-haven
buying after hitting a fresh two-week low early on. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. There are still no early technical clues to suggest
a market top is close at hand. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 146 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
152 19/32. First resistance is seen at 150 even and then at
150 10/32. First support is seen at 149 even and then at
148 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 11.5 (32nds) at 133.27.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after
hitting a fresh two-week low early on. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the contract high of
134.30.5. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 132.16.0. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 133.30.0 and then at 134.05.5. First support is
seen at 133.14.5 and then at 133.04.5. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today. Risk appetite in the market place tried to
improve to start the new trading early Monday. However, as
the trading day wore on investors were in the mood to
become more risk-averse. Asian and European stock markets
were somewhat boosted overnight on some optimism coming out
of the weekend news on the European Union sovereign debt
crisis front. However, details of Euro zone finance
ministers’ Spain bank bailout deal worth 100 billion Euros
do worry the market place. Spanish 10-year bond yields were
still above 6% Monday. Traders and investors are also
awaiting Greek elections next Sunday. There was weak
economic data coming out of Italy Monday to add to notions
the EU is in overall economic recession. In other news
Monday, Goldman Sachs forecasts the raw commodity sector
has bottomed out and commodity prices will begin to trend
higher in coming months.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 46.25 at
2,510.50. Prices closed near the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart
after hitting a fresh four-week high early on. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,400.00. First resistance is seen at
2,550.00 and then at 2,570.00. First support is seen at
2,500.00 and then at 2,481.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 22.00 at 1,300.00.
Prices closed near the session low today after hitting a
fresh four-week high early on. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,360.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,250.00. First resistance is seen at 1,322.80 and then at
1,334.20. First support is seen at 1,286.50 and then at
1,275.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 193 points at 12,310 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart after
hitting a fresh two-week high early on. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 12,800. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at 12,350 and then at 12,400. First support is seen at
12,250 and then at 12,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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