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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--June 7

Jun 08, 2012

Thursday Evening, June 7-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed up $1.12 at $120.42
today. Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a fresh
three-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on
the daily bar chart today. Bulls gained some upside
technical momentum today and are back on a level near-term
technical playing field with the bears. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of
$122.40. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $117.80. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $120.80 and then at
$121.50. First support is seen at $120.00 and then at
$119.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

August feeder cattle closed up $1.15 at $159.10 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today as trading has
turned very choppy. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $160.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $156.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $159.30 and
then at $159.60. First support is seen at $158.50 and then
at $158.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

August lean hogs closed up $0.17 at $92.02 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit another
fresh seven-week high. Hog market bulls have some upside
technical momentum to suggest an uptrend can be sustained.
Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
the April high of $95.15. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $89.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $92.20 and then at $92.50. First support is
seen at $91.50 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 7 3/4 cents at $5.94
today. Prices closed near mid-range today, hit a fresh two-
week high and saw more short covering in a bear market.
Warmer and drier weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt
were again supportive for the corn market today. Corn
market bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but a bullish weekly high close on Friday would
provide the bulls with fresh upside momentum. Corn bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above psychological resistance at $6.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
June low of $5.51. First resistance for July corn is seen
at today’s high of $6.01 1/2 and then at $6.05. First
support is seen at $5.90 and then at today’s low of $5.84
1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July soybeans closed up 43 cents at $14.29 1/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh three-week high. Warmer and drier weather forecasts
for the U.S. Corn Belt were bullish for beans today. Bean
bulls have gained solid upside near-term technical momentum
this week. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $14.60 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$13.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.30
and then at $14.40. First support is seen at $14.10 and
then at $14.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

July soybean meal closed up $12.40 at $427.00 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Meal bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of $437.60. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $429.00 and then at $434.60. First
support is seen at $422.50 and then at $420.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

July bean oil closed up 99 points at 50.24 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high again today and saw
more short covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but a
bullish weekly high close on Friday would provide the bulls
with fresh upside momentum. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 51.28 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 47.81 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.39 cents and then
at 50.74 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and
then at 49.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 13 cents at $6.37 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.50 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.44 3/4 and then at $6.50. First support
lies at $6.30 and then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 13 1/2 cents at $6.68 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high again today on
more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.90. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.37. First
resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at $6.85. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.57 1/2 and then at
$6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July oats closed up 6 1/4 cents at $3.00 1/2 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today on more short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but bulls are gaining upside momentum. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.80.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.25.
First support lies at $2.98 and then at today’s low of
$2.93 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.04 and then at $3.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 12 points at 19.78 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh three-week high early on. Sugar bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 20.50 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 18.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 20.08 cents and then at today’s high
of 20.43 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
19.67 cents and then at 19.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

July coffee closed up 90 points at 156.80 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh 21-month
low. Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 170.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 150.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 160.00 cents and then at 162.50
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 154.25 cents
and then at 152.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed up $15 at $2,218 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and saw more short covering and
bargain hunting. Cocoa bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but the bulls are gaining upside
momentum and would gain more by producing a bullish weekly
high close on Friday. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,300. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
June low of $2,026. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2,250 and then at $2,275. First support is seen at
$2,200 and then at today’s low of $2,190. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

July cotton closed up the 400-point limit at 73.89 cents
today. Prices saw more short covering and bargain hunting
in a market that is still technically bearish. Prices are
still in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
A bullish weekly high close on Friday would provide the
bulls with fresh upside technical momentum and would be an
early clue that a market low is close at hand. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 78.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of 66.10 cents. First resistance
is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First
support is seen at 72.50 cents and then at today’s low of
70.43 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July orange juice closed down 200 points at $1.1460 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
three-week high early on. FCOJ bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.2500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $1.0800.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.1890 and
then at $1.2000. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1.1200 and then at $1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July lumber futures closed down $0.80 at $283.50 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field amid
choppy trading. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the May low of
$276.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $294.00. First
resistance is seen at $285.00 and then at $287.00. First
support is seen at $283.00 and then at $282.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed down $44.10 an ounce
at $1,590.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and were pressured by the failure of Fed chief
Bernanke to offer fresh monetary stimulus at today’s
testimony to Congress. The gold market bulls quickly lost
their technical momentum today. Bears regained the slight
near-term technical advantage in gold. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$1,642.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the May
low of $1,529.30. First resistance is seen at $1,600.00 and
then at $1,610.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,579.40 and then at $1,575.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
4.5

July silver futures closed down $0.933 an ounce at $28.555
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and lost
all of Wednesday’s solid gains. Bulls also quickly lost
their newfound technical momentum today. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above major
psychological resistance at $30.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
$26.50. First resistance is seen at $29.00 and then at
$29.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $28.36 and
then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 35 points 337.50 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 345.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of 308.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 340.00 cents and then at today’s high of 343.05 cents.
First support is seen at 335.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 333.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: July crude oil closed down $0.85 a barrel at
$84.17 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The
crude bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. There are still no early technical clues to
suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $90.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $80.00. First
resistance is seen at $85.00 and then at $86.00. First
support is seen at $83.50 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

July heating oil closed down 91 points at $2.6626 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are
in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.5000. First resistance
lies at $2.7000 and then at today’s high of $2.7138. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.6469 and then at
$2.6260. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 150 points at
$2.6753 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.5000. First resistance is seen at
$2.7000 and then at this week’s high of $2.7263. First
support is seen at $2.6500 and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

July natural gas closed down 14.6 cents at $2.275 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six-week
low today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more downside momentum today. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$2.096. First resistance is seen at $2.35 and then at
$2.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.263 and
then at $2.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed up 41 points at 1.2597 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today, hit a fresh two-week high and saw
more short covering in a bear market. The Euro bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a
bullish weekly high close on Friday would begin to hint
that a market low is in place. Euro prices are still in a
three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.2838.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2250. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2636 and
then at 1.2700. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2552 and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The September Japanese yen closed down 81 points at 1.2568
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
saw more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show
fresh power soon. A bearish weekly low close on Friday
would begin to suggest a market top is in place. Prices are
still in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart,
but now just barely. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.2895. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2435. First resistance is seen at 1.2600 and then at
today’s high of 1.2639. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2547 and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The September Swiss franc closed up 39 points at 1.0513
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh two-week high and saw more short covering in a bear
market. The bears still have the solid near-term technical
advantage in the Swissy. Prices are in a three-month-old
downtrend. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0684.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 1.0280. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0530 and then at 1.0565. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0468 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

The September Australian dollar closed down 6 points at
.9818 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh three-week high early on. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the June low of .9499.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9914 and then
at 1.0000. Next support is seen at today’s low of .9795 and
then at .9700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The September Canadian dollar closed up 16 points at .9713
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week high early on. More short covering in a
bear market was featured. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at last week’s high of .9770. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9500. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of .9772 and then at .9800. First
support is seen at today’s low of .9694 and then at .9660.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September British pound closed up 57 points at 1.5524
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish
weekly high close on Friday would begin to suggest a market
bottom is in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.5700. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at the June low of 1.5266. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.5593 and then at 1.5650. First support
is seen at 1.5500 and then at today’s low of 1.5428.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 14 points at
82.63 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
more profit taking. No chart damage has occurred this week
but the bulls are fading a bit and a bearish weekly low
close on Friday would begin to hint that a market top is in
place. Bulls do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 84.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 82.00. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 82.86 and then at 83.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 82.35 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed steady at 148 25/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. There are
still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is
close at hand. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 146 even. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of 152 19/32.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 149 8/32 and
then at 149 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of
148 2/32 and then at 147 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 6.0 (32nds) at 133.15.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
contract high of 134.30.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 132.16.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.18.5 and then at 134.00.0. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 133.04.5 and then at
133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. The bulls were disappointed with Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech to the Joint
Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. Bernanke said the
U.S. is facing economic headwinds, especially due to the
European Union debt crisis, but offered up no specifics on
any fresh monetary stimulus package to promote more
economic growth. The restrained tone of Bernanke's speech
disappointed bulls who wanted immediate gratification on
economic stimulus. However, Bernanke at this time holding
his cards close to his vest on the matter did not surprise
most market watchers--many of whom still reckon the Fed
will at some point down the road provide fresh monetary
policy easing. The “Bernanke bust” overshadowed several
significant market place developments that occurred earlier
Thursday, led by news China has cuts its interest rate by
0.25% in an effort to stimulate its economy.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 12.75 at
2,531.25. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh two-week high early on. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,600.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 2,400.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,564.75 and then at 2,570.00. First support is
seen at 2,525.00 and then at 2,500.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.60 at 1,309.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,360.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,250.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,322.80 and then at 1,334.20. First
support is seen at 1,300.00 and then at 1,283.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed up 52 points at 12,398 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 12,800. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,460 and then at 12,500. First
support is seen at 12,350 and then at 12,300. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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