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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Mar 13

Mar 14, 2013

Wednesday Evening, March 13-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.15 at
$128.55 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and were pressured by the stronger U.S. dollar index.
Cattle futures bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $130.80. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $127.10. First resistance is seen at $129.00 and
then at today’s high of $129.42. First support is seen at
$128.10 and then at $127.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

April feeder cattle closed up $0.52 at $142.72 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. The feeder bears still have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $144.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
$140.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$143.32 and then at $144.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $142.05 and then at $141.35. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

April lean hogs closed down $0.80 at $80.65 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and were pressured by a
stronger U.S. dollar index. The hog bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at $83.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $80.00.
First resistance is seen at $81.00 and then at $81.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of $80.40 and then at
$80.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded down 6 3/4 cents at
$7.07 1/2 today in late trading. Prices were near mid-range
and saw selling pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar
index today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. However, the bulls need to show
some fresh power soon to keep the bears from regaining the
chart edge. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $7.00. First resistance for May corn is seen at
today’s high of $7.17 3/4 and then at $7.20. First support
is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.95. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

May soybeans were down 21 1/4 cents at $14.47 1/2 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
today. A stronger U.S. dollar index pressured beans today.
Bean bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $14.20. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $14.68 3/4 and then at $14.75. First
support is seen at today’s low of $14.40 1/4 and then at
$14.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was down $6.60 at $429.60 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low on profit
taking. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $443.90. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of $424.20. First resistance comes in at $432.50
and then at $435.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $425.50 and then at the March low of $424.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

May bean oil was down 59 points at 49.39 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
pressured by the stronger U.S. dollar index. Bean oil bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the March high of 50.78 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the March
low of 48.67 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents
and then at 50.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 49.23 cents and then at 49.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

May Chicago SRW wheat was up 7 1/4 cents at $7.10 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on
more short covering in a bear market. Prices are still in a
seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at the March high of $7.26 3/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last June’s low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at $7.20
and then at $7.26 3/4. First support lies at $7.00 and then
at this week’s low of $6.93 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

May HRW wheat was up 2 1/2 cents at $7.37 3/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and saw
more tepid short covering in a bear market. HRW bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $7.61 1/4. The bears' next downside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $7.42 and then at $7.50. First support
is seen at today’s low of $7.29 1/4 and then at last week’s
low of $7.23. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May oats were down 1 1/2 cents at $3.92 1/2 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session high. Oats bulls have
the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $3.75.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00.
First support lies at $3.90 and then at today’s low of
$3.87 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.94 and then at this week’s high of $3.96 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 5 points at 18.77 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were
pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index. The bulls still
have some upside technical momentum to suggest that a
market bottom is in place, but need to show fresh power
soon to bolster that notion. Right now the sugar bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at 19.38
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
18.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
18.89 cents and then at last week’s high of 19.05 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 18.64 cents and
then at 18.58 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May coffee closed down 220 points at 140.15 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The
coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. A big Brazilian coffee crop is also a bearish
fundamental in the market place at present. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of 147.50
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the February contract low of 137.60 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 142.00 cents and then at this week’s
high of 144.85 cents. First support is seen at 140.00 cents
and then at 139.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May cocoa closed down $10 at $2,148 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. The stronger U.S. dollar index
pressured cocoa today. Recent price action has seen a
bullish "key reversal" up confirmed on the daily bar chart.
That is an early clue that a market bottom is in place. But
right now the cocoa bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$2,260. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of $2,034. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2,176 and then at $2,200. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,127 and then at this
week’s low of $2,106. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May cotton closed up 126 points at 88.59 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a 10-
month high. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 85.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 89.15
cents and then at 90.00. First support is seen at 88.00
cents and then at today’s low of 87.20 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

May orange juice closed down 100 points at $1.3650 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and did hit another
fresh 2.5-month high early on today. The bulls still have
upside technical momentum. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at the December contract high of
$1.4415. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.3000. First resistance is seen at $1.3800 and
then at today’s high of $1.4030. First support is seen at
$1.3510 and then at $1.3400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May lumber futures closed up $6.90 at $406.80 today. Prices
hit a fresh contract high today. Bulls have the solid near-
term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $390.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $420.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract
high of $406.80 and then at $410.00. First support is seen
at $403.00 and then at $400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $3.80 an ounce at
$1,587.90 today in choppy trading. Prices closed nearer the
session low today. Gold was pressured by a stronger U.S.
dollar index today. The bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term
price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,600.00. Bears' next near-term
downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the February low of $1,554.40.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,598.80 and
then at $1,600.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,584.40 and then at this week’s low of $1,574.50.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5

May silver futures closed down $0.231 an ounce at $28.94
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index. Silver bears
still have the near-term technical advantage. However,
prices have been trading sideways to higher for the past
week as the bulls try to stabilize the market. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $29.495 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
$27.925. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$29.35 and then at $29.495. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of $28.705 and then at $28.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 240 points at 353.05 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index. Copper bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 360.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the March low of 347.25 cents. First resistance is seen at
355.00 cents and then at today’s high of 356.70 cents.
First support is seen at 352.00 cents and then at 350.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $0.20 at $92.34
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index. The crude oil
bears have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. However, the bulls have recently gained some
upside near-term technical momentum. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close solid chart resistance at $95.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the March low of $89.33.
First resistance is seen at $93.00 and then at this week’s
high of $93.47. First support is seen at today’s low of
$91.91 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

April heating oil closed down 311 points at $2.9172 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a
fresh three-month low close. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage and have gained fresh downside momentum
this week. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of $2.8900. First resistance lies at $2.9400
and then at today’s high of $2.9679. First support is seen
at the March low of $2.9038 and then at $2.8900. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 231 points at
$3.1271 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The gasoline bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $3.2672. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the March low of $3.0590. First
resistance is seen at $3.1500 and then at today’s high of
$3.1870. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0950
and then at $3.0590. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

April natural gas closed up 3.6 cents at $3.681 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did another
fresh three-month high. Nat gas bulls have the slight near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the December high of $3.747. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.45.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.696 and then
at $3.747. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.623
and then at this week’s low of $3.59. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 66 points at 1.2926 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low and hit a fresh 3.5-month low today. The
Euro bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 1.3143. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2800. First resistance for the
Euro lies at 1.3000 and then at this week’s high of 1.3083.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2931 and then at
1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 14 points at 1.0418
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
are hovering near the contract low scored Tuesday. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.0700. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0250. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0484 and then at 1.0549. First support is
seen at the contract low of 1.0345 and then at 1.0300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 57 points at 1.0511 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a
fresh 6.5-month low close. Prices also scored a bearish
"outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Prices are in a
steep six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
Swissy bears have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0657. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0400. First
resistance is seen at 1.0550 and then at today’s high of
1.0615. First support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0479
and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 8 points at 1.0235
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at this week’s low of 1.0128.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0260 and
then at 1.0275. Next support is seen at 1.0191 and then at
1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 9 points at .9714
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices are still
in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish
"rounding-bottom" reversal pattern may be forming on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
.9760. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9600. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9739
and then at last week’s high of .9750. First support is
seen at today’s low of .9691 and then at .9675. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

The June British pound closed up 14 points at 1.4915 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today on tepid short covering
in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a contract low. Bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep nine-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.5200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.4750. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.4973 and then at
1.5000. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.4884 and
then at the contract low of 1.4823. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up .310 at 83.160 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 7.5-
month high today. Prices also scored a bullish "outside
day" up on the daily bar chart today. The bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 84.000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the March low of 82.070.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 83.335 and then at
83.500. First support is seen at 83.000 and then at today’s
low of 82.600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 3/32 at 141 15/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bond market bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 140 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 143
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 141 29/32
and then at 142 even. First support is seen at 141 even and
then at this week’s low of 140 18/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 2.5 (32nds) at 130.13.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the 131.00.0. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close
below solid technical support at the February low of
129.19.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
130.21.0 and then at 130.24.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 130.07.5 and then at last week’s low of
130.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrial average poking
to another new all-time record high. U.S. retail sales were
released Wednesday morning and showed a stronger-than-
expected rise of 1.1% in February, which was about double
the rise that the market place expected. That news boosted
the U.S. stock indexes. If economic data coming from the
U.S. starts to trend in a stronger fashion it would also
lead to ideas the Federal Reserve would have to begin to
back off on its aggressive easy monetary policy. In
overnight news, a German two-year note auction saw the
notes (also called Schatz) fetch strong demand with a yield
of only 0.06%. This suggests there is a bit keener risk
aversion in the European market place, likely due to the
uncertainty regarding Italy’s recent elections and due to
recent downbeat economic data coming out of the European
Union. On Wednesday it was reported that factory output in
the 17 EU countries declined by 0.4% in January from
December. There is also an Italian bond auction set for
Wednesday, which will be closely monitored as a test of
investor appetite for the troubled country’s debt. The
Fitch credit ratings agency last week downgraded Italy’s
credit rating.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 3.50 at 2,794.50
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more mild
profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 2,871.75. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of
2,689.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
2,808.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,817.00 and then
at 2,825.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,782.50 and then at 2,775.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.00 at 1,549.80.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,575.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the February low of 1,482.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,551.40 and then
at 1,565.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1,540.60 and then at 1,530.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 12 points at 14,398 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and closed at another
fresh all-time high close. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 14,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 14,000. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 14,400 and then at 14,450. First
support is seen at today’s low of 14,355 and then at this
week’s low of 14,310. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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