Jul 13, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Mar 19

Mar 20, 2013

Tuesday Evening, March 19--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing
from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I had computer problems this afternoon. My friend and fellow
trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. Ken's style is a
bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and enjoy his
work, too. --Jim)


The STOCK INDEXES

The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral
to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2762.68 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally
off November's low, September's high crossing at 2842.50 is the next
upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at
2817.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2842.50.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2762.68. Second
support is February's low crossing at 2683.50.

The June S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it
consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are
turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
1525.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
June extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at
1586.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's
high crossing at 1558.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance
crossing at 1588.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 1525.77. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1498.00.

The Dow closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-
term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14,221 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory,
upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last
Thursday's high crossing at 14,528. Second resistance is hard to project
with the Dow now trading into uncharted territory. First support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 14,221. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 13,937.

INTEREST RATES

June T-bonds closed up 28/32?s at 143-19.

June T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off this
month's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the
rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 144-29 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at
141-30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is today's high crossing at 143-31. Second resistance is this
month's high crossing at 144-29. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 141-30. Second support is March's low crossing at
140-14.

ENERGY MARKETS

April crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this
month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If April extends this month’s rally, the reaction
high crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the
reaction low crossing at 91.76 would temper the near-term friendly
outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 94.09. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.46. First support is the
75% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 89.49.
Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February
rally crossing at 87.95.

April heating oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off
February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the
decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-
February crossing at 280.52 is the next downside target. Closes above
the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.34 are needed to confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 298.34. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high
crossing at 300.74. First support is today's low crossing at 284.30.
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February
crossing at 280.52.

April unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the
previous reaction low crossing at 305.90 thereby renewing the rally off
February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bearish signaling that
additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends the decline
off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-February
rally crossing at 297.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the
20-day moving average crossing at 315.94 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 315.94. Second resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 331.96. First support is today's low crossing at 303.27.
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-February rally
crossing at 297.50.

April Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally
off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low,
November's high crossing at 3.997 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.576 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 3.973. Second resistance is November's high crossing at
3.997. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.718.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.576.

CURRENCIES

The June Dollar closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.43 are needed to
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally
off February’s low, the 75% retracement level of the July-February
decline crossing at 83.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Thursday's high crossing at 83.42. Second resistance is the 75%
retracement level of the July-February decline crossing at 83.75. First
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.43. Second support
is the reaction low crossing at 81.74.

The June Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off
February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging and are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low
might be in or near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
130.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
June extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level
of the July-February rally crossing at 127.37 is the next downside
target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at
130.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 133.25. First
support is today's low crossing at 128.52. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 127.37.

The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Tuesday and above the
20-day moving average crossing at 1.5078 confirming that a short-term
low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night
session begins trading. If June extends the rally off this month's low,
the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.5194 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at 1.5003 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance
is the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.5194.
Second resistance is 38% retracement level of this year's decline
crossing at 1.5388 First support is the 10-day moving average crossing
at 1.5003. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4823.

The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at .10641 are needed to confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off
February's high, the 75% retracement level of the July-February rally
crossing at .10378 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at .10641 would confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at .10641. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10784.
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .10463. Second support
is the 75% retracement level of the July-February rally crossing at
.10378.

The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 97.25 thereby tempering the near-term
friendly outlook. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, this month's
low crossing at 96.46 is the next downside target. If June renews the
rally off this month's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-
February decline crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 98.02. Second resistance is
the 38% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at
98.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 96.91. Second
support is this month's low crossing at 96.46.

The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10620 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the
decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at .10228 is the
next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at .10620. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
.11014. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .10345. Second
support is monthly support crossing at .10228.

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above
the reaction high crossing at 1619.70 are needed to confirm an upside
breakout of the late-winter trading range. If April renews the decline
off last October's high, last May's low crossing at 1538.70 is the next
downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1615.00.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1619.70. First
support is February's low crossing at 1554.30. Second support is last
May's low crossing at 1538.70.

May silver closed slightly lower on Tuesday while extending the trading
range of the past four weeks. The mid-range close set the stage for a
steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is
possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 29.495
are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading
range. Closes below this month's low crossing at 27.925 would renew this
winter's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 87%
retracement level of the June-October rally crossing at 27.529. First
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.495. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 31.275. First support is this month?s low
crossing at 27.925. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the
June-October rally crossing at 27.529.

May copper closed lower on Tuesday extending the decline off February's
high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging but have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's
high, last July's low crossing at 332.00 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 352.60 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 352.60. Second resistance is last
Tuesday's high crossing at 357.60. First support is today's low crossing
at 338.80. Second support is last July's low crossing at 332.00.

GRAINS

May Corn closed up 8-cents at 7.28 1/2.

May corn closed higher on Tuesday and above the August-February
downtrend line crossing near 7.24 1/2. Multiple closes above this key
downtrend line would confirm that a short-term trend change has taken
place. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
additional strength is possible near-term. If May extends the rally off
February's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-January decline
crossing at 7.39 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.03 1/4 would signal that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.28 3/4.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-January
decline crossing at 7.39 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 7.03 1/4.

May wheat closed up 9 1/4-cents at 7.22.

May wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 20-day
moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but
remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. If May
extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 7.52 1/2 is
the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at 7.07 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First
resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 7.25 1/2. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.52 1/2. First support is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.07 1/4. Second support is this
month's low crossing at 6.81.

May Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 7.51 3/4.

May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally
off this month's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady
to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.46 1/2 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews
the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of 2012's
rally crossing at 7.10 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance
is the reaction high crossing at 7.59 1/2. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 7.92. First support is this month's low
crossing at 7.24 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of
2012's rally crossing at 7.10 1/2.

May Minneapolis wheat closed up 10-cents at 7.98 3/4.

May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this
month's trading range above the 87% retracement level of the May-July
rally crossing at 7.86 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins to trade.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways
to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high
crossing at 8.11 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has
been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, last May's low
crossing at 7.53 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.99 1/2. Second resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 8.11 1/2. First support is this month's low
crossing at 7.80. Second support is last May's low crossing at 7.53 1/2.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

May soybeans closed down 2 3/4-cents at 14.06 3/4.

May soybeans closed lower for the sixth day in a row on Tuesday. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when
Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are
becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline,
February's low crossing at 13.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.49 3/4 would temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.49 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at
14.97. First support is today's low crossing at 14.03. Second support is
February's low crossing at 13.93 1/2.

May soybean meal closed down $1.70 at $411.60.

May soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's
decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline,
February's low crossing at 402.10 is the next downside target. Closes
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 429.30 would temper the
near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 429.30. Second resistance is February's high crossing at
445.00. First support is today's low crossing at 411.00. Second support
is February's low crossing at 402.10.

May soybean oil closed down 20-pts. at 49.48.

May soybean closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of
the past four days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 50.78
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May
renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 48.40
is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 50.15. Second resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 50.78. First support is December's low crossing at 48.40.
Second support is November's low crossing at 47.85.

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $1.17 at $78.22.

April hogs closed lower on Tuesday thereby renewing the decline off
November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices
are possible near-term. If April extends this winter's decline, weekly
support crossing at 76.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the
reaction high crossing at 82.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 80.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
82.25. First support is today's low crossing at 77.85. Second resistance
is weekly support crossing at 76.65.

April cattle closed down $0.75 at 125.30.

April cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off
December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this
year's decline, weekly support crossing at 124.25 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.34 are
needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the
10-day moving average crossing at 127.52. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 128.34. First support is today's low
crossing at 124.85. Second support is weekly support crossing at 124.25.

April feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $138.37.

April Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this year's
decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this
year's decline, weekly support crossing at 135.76 is the next downside
target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.55 are
needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First
resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.09. Second
resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.55. First
support is today's low crossing at 137.52. Second support is weekly
support crossing at 135.76.

FOOD & FIBER

May coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this winter's decline.
The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May
extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 13.20
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

May cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this
week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening
on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the
decline off last September's high, weekly support crossing at 19.70 is
the next downside target. If May renews the rally off this month's low,
the reaction high crossing at 22.60 is the next upside target.

May sugar closed slightly higher due to short covering on Tuesday but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.37. The low-range
close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline,
the reaction low crossing at 17.88 is the next downside target. Closes
above Monday's high crossing at 18.73 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook.

May cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it
consolidated some of Monday’s decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting
that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 86.56 would confirm that a top has been
posted. If May extends this winter's rally, the 75% retracement level of
the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 96.93 is the next upside target.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an
explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any
trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal
to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is
up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any
traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate.
Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has
said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity
futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX
AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should
understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand
your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly
reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions