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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Mar 21

Mar 22, 2013

Thursday Evening, March 21-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.10 at $122.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on more
tepid short covering after hitting a fresh contract low on
Tuesday. Cattle futures bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $123.60. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $120.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $122.67 and
then at $123.00. First support is seen at $121.50 and then
at $121.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May feeder cattle closed up $0.62 at $140.47 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and saw short covering in
a bear market. The feeder bears still have the solid near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $142.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $138.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $141.45 and
then at $142.00. First support is seen at $140.00 and then
at $139.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

June lean hogs closed up $0.95 at $89.45 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market after prices hit a contact low on
Wednesday. The hog bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $91.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at $87.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $89.65 and then at $90.00. First
support is seen at $89.00 and then at today’s low of
$88.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded up 1/2 cent at
$7.33 today in late trading. Prices were nearer the session
high and hit another fresh six-week high today. Corn bulls
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls'
next upside price objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$7.47 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $7.10. First
resistance for May corn is seen at today’s high of $7.34
1/4 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at today’s low
of $7.26 1/2 and then at $7.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

May soybeans were up 20 1/4 cents at $14.40 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
saw more short covering and fresh bargain hunting after the
recent sell off. Prices Tuesday hit a five-week low.
Soybean bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the March high of $14.84 3/4 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $13.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $14.46 and then at $14.50. First support is
seen at $14.25 and then at today’s low of $14.19 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was up $6.70 at $420.50 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high and saw short
covering featured following recent selling pressure. The
bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$430.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of $402.10. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $422.60 and then at $425.00.
First support is seen at $417.50 and then at $415.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May bean oil was up 43 points at 50.27 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering. Bean oil bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of 50.78 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the March low of 48.67
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.45
cents and then at 50.78 cents. First support is seen at
50.00 cents and then at today’s low of 49.82 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

May Chicago SRW wheat was down 6 1/4 cents at $7.29 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
saw a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s gains. While the
wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, the bulls have gained some upside near-term
momentum just recently. Good gains on Friday and a bullish
weekly high close would suggest that a market low is in
place. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to
push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.36 3/4
and then at $7.50. First support lies at $7.25 and then at
$7.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May HRW wheat was down 4 cents at $7.62 1/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session low. HRW bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the
bulls have gained some upside near-term technical momentum,
but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $8.00. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the March
low of $7.23. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of $7.67 3/4 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at
$7.50 1/2 and then at $7.42 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

May oats were down 4 cents at $3.95 1/4 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session low and scoring a
bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Profit
taking was featured. Oats bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.80. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of $4.05.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.92 and then at
$3.90. First resistance is seen at $4.00 and then at
today’s high of $4.03. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 15 points at 18.20 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh two-week low. The sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 19.12
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
18.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
18.49 cents and then at this week’s high of 18.73 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 18.13 cents and
then at 18.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May coffee closed up 15 points at 133.75 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a contract
low. The coffee bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 144.85 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 130.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 135.45 cents and
then at this week’s high of 137.40 cents. First support is
seen at the contract low of 132.05 cents and then at 131.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May cocoa closed up $10 at $2,162 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and did hit a fresh five-week
high early on. Short covering in a bear market was
featured. The cocoa bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close
on Friday would provide the bulls with some upside
technical momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $2,200. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at this week’s low of $2,075. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,186 and then at
$2,200. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,149 and
then at $2,125. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May cotton closed down 82 points at 88.28 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today on more
profit taking. The cotton bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, are now fading and need to
show fresh power soon. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 93.93 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 85.59 cents. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 89.10 cents and then at 90.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 87.96 cents and
then at 87.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May orange juice closed up 155 points at $1.3670 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The FCOJ bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at the Mach high
of $1.4030. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $1.3000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.3870 and then at $1.4030. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1.3405 and then at this week’s
low of $1.3305. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May lumber futures closed up $0.10 at $387.90 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Prices this week have backed
off on the "risk-off" trading attitudes and on profit
taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $372.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $400.00. First resistance is
seen at $390.00 and then at $391.20. First support is seen
at today’s low of $386.30 and then at this week’s low of
$384.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $7.00 an ounce at
$1,614.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
hit a fresh three-week high today on safe-haven and fresh
speculative buying. The gold bears still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls
have gained decent upside near-term chart momentum to begin
to suggest that a market low is in place. A bullish weekly
high close on Friday would provide the bulls with better
upside near-term chart momentum. The gold bulls’ next
upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $1,619.70. Bears'
next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,575.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,616.50 and then at
$1,619.70. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,603.60 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
4.75

May silver futures closed up $0.393 an ounce at $29.21
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Silver
bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
However, prices have been trading sideways for the past few
weeks as the bulls try to stabilize the market. This
sideways trading could be "basing" action that can put in
market lows and occurs just before an uptrend begins.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $29.495 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $28.40. First resistance is seen at
$29.35 and then at $29.495. Next support is seen at $29.00
and then at today’s low of $28.705. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 110 points at 343.55 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
"outside markets" were bearish for the copper market today
as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices
were weaker. Copper bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 351.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the August
2012 low of 332.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
345.35 cents and then at 347.25 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 342.10 cents and then at 340.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed down $1.08 at $92.43
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Crude
was pressured by the "risk-off" day in the market place
today. Crude oil bulls and bears are back on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close solid chart resistance at $96.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the March low of $89.78.
First resistance is seen at $93.00 and then at today’s high
of $93.53. First support is seen at today’s low of $91.84
and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May heating oil closed down 198 points at $2.9755 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices Tuesday
hit a three-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $3.1026. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at the November low of $2.9183. First resistance
lies at $3.000 and then at this week’s high of $3.0360.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $2.9551 and
then at $2.9250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 476 points at
$3.0544 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The gasoline bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $3.2445. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at $3.0000. First resistance is seen at
$3.0750 and then at $3.1000. First support is seen at
today’s low of $3.0446 and then at this week’s low of
$3.0151. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May natural gas closed down 2.3 cents at $3.962 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh 15-
month high early on. Cold weather over much of the U.S. is
bullish for nat gas recently. Nat gas bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $4.10. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.72. First resistance is
seen at $4.00 and then at today’s high of $4.05. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.914 and then at $3.85.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 32 points at 1.2922 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today. Prices Tuesday hit a four-month low. The
Euro bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 1.3143. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2800. First resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s
high of 1.3005 and then at 1.3083. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2887 and then at this week’s low of
1.2852. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 110 points at 1.0545 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices are
hovering near the contract low. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0800. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.0250. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0552 and then at this week’s high of 1.0611. First
support is seen at 1.0500 and then at today’s low of
1.0410. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 34 points at 1.0575 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The Swissy
bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0463. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0606
and then at this week’s high of 1.0638. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 1.0547 and then at 1.0500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 67 points at 1.0383
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-month high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today. Prices
are in a steep three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the January
high of 1.0474. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at this week’s low of 1.0273. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.0392 and then at 1.0450. Next
support is seen at 1.0344 and then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 10 points at .9749
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at .9870. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of .9646. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of .9787 and then at
last week’s high of .9802. First support is seen at this
week’s low of .9704 and then at last week’s low of .9691.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June British pound closed up 68 points at 1.5176 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high on more short covering. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a
bullish weekly high close on Friday would suggest a market
bottom is in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.5311. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at the March low of 1.4823. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5204 and then at 1.5250. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.5083 and then at this
week’s low of 1.5019. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .043 at 82.905
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more profit taking from recent gains that saw pries Tuesday
hit a 7.5-month high. The bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 84.000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the March low of 82.070. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 83.185 and then at this
week’s high of 83.315. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 82.625 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 6/32 at 143 10/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today on mild short
covering. Trading has turned choppy this week. Bond market
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of 140 14/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 144 29/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 143 15/32 and then at
this week’s high of 143 31/32. First support is seen at 143
even and then at today’s low of 142 18/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 0.5 (32nds) at 131.13.0 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Trading has turned
choppy this week. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the March high of 132.00.5. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close
below solid technical support at the March low of 130.00.0.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 131.17.0 and
then at this week’s high of 131.24.0. First support is seen
at 131.08.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.02.5.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today. It was a "risk-off" day in the market place
today. The Cyprus financial crisis has still not been
resolved and banks there are closed until next week. This
is a messy situation, as Russia has its hands in the pie
and the European Union and International Monetary Fund
don’t like it. Mega-rich Russians have a large amount of
their money parked in Cyprus banks. Russia has indicated it
could bail out Cyprus, but details remain sketchy. The
European Central Bank says it has funds ready for a Cyprus
bailout, but insists there needs to be an EU-backed
financial plan in place by Monday. Some more fresh, upbeat
U.S. economic data coming out of the U.S. Thursday did
little to boost the stock indexes. Meantime, there was more
downbeat economic data coming out of the European Union
Thursday. The Markit data company reported its composite
purchasing managers’ index for the Euro zone fell to 46.5
in March from 47.9 in February. Any reading below 50.00
suggests contraction. Combined with recent EU economic
data, Thursday’s fresh numbers further point to the Euro
zone being in economic recession for yet another quarter in
the first quarter of 2013. The market place is keeping an
eye on developments coming out of North Korea. That nation
issued fresh threats of a possible nuclear strike against
U.S. bases in Japan. Any escalation in tensions between the
U.S. and North Korea could send investors into safe-haven
assets like gold, and out of stocks.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 15.75 at
2,769.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the March high of
2,815.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 2,749.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,786.50 and then at 2,800.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 2,762.00 and then at this week’s low
of 2,749.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 10.10 at 1,539.00.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1,575.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,520.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,550.50 and then at last week’s
high of 1,558.60. First support is seen at this week’s low
of 1,529.60 and then at 1,515.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

The Dow futures closed down 60 points at 14,348 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 14,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 14,150. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 14,414 and then at the
record high of 14,470. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 14,310 and then at 14,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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