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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Mar 26

Mar 27, 2013

Tuesday Evening, March 26-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.32 at $121.15
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Prices are
hovering not far above the recent contract low. Cattle
futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. There are no early technical clues of a market
low being close at hand. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $123.60. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $120.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $121.90 and
then at last week’s high of $122.67. First support is seen
at $121.00 and then at $120.47. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5

May feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $140.47 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today in more quiet
trading. The recent "collapse in volatility" in the feeder
cattle market makes me suspect a bigger price move is on
the horizon. The feeder bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $142.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $138.00.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $141.00 and
then at last week’s high of $141.62. First support is seen
at $140.00 and then at $139.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5

June lean hogs closed up $0.30 at $91.07 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and saw more short
covering. Prices did hit a fresh two-week high today. While
the hog bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, the June hogs have scored gains five days in a
row and the bulls have gained some upside technical
momentum to begin to suggest that a market bottom is in
place. However, the bulls have more work to do to suggest
prices can sustain an uptrend. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of
$92.12. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $87.20. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $91.35 and then at $92.12. First support is
seen at $90.50 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 2 3/4 cents at
$7.30 1/2 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high.
Prices are hovering near a seven-week high. A stronger U.S.
dollar index did limit buying interest in corn Tuesday, as
did position evening. Traders are awaiting Thursday
morning’s USDA prospective plantings report and USDA
quarterly grain stocks report. The plantings report is one
of the most important USDA reports of the year for the
grain markets. Corn bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $7.47 1/2. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $7.10. First resistance for May corn is seen
at last week’s high of $7.34 1/2 and then at $7.40. First
support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $7.25 1/2 and then at
this week’s low of $7.21 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May soybeans closed up 9 3/4 cents at $14.47 a bushel
Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Short
covering and position evening was featured. Traders are
awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA prospective plantings
report and USDA quarterly grain stocks report. The
plantings report is one of the most important USDA reports
of the year for the grain markets. Soybean bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $14.84 3/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $14.51 1/2 and then at $14.60. First support is
seen at Tuesday’s low of $14.34 and then at this week’s low
of $14.30 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal closed up $2.40 at $420.40 Tuesday. Prices
closed nearer the session high. The bulls and bears are
back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $430.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $402.10. First resistance comes in at
Tuesday’s high of $420.70 and then at this week’s high of
$421.70. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $417.20
and then at this week’s low of $415.90. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

May bean oil closed up 38 points at 50.82 cents Tuesday.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-
week high on more short covering. Bean oil bulls gained
upside technical momentum today and are now back on a level
near-term technical playing field with the bears. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.92 cents and then
at 51.25 cents. First support is seen at 50.61 cents and
then at 50.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents at $7.31 1/2
Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short
covering. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA
prospective plantings report and USDA quarterly grain
stocks report. The plantings report is one of the most
important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets.
While the wheat bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, the bulls have gained a bit of upside
near-term momentum recently, to begin to suggest a market
low is in place. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $7.50 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s
high of $7.32 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $7.36
3/4. First support lies at this week’s low of $7.22 1/2 and
then at $7.15 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May HRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $7.68 1/2 Tuesday.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four-
week high. Short covering was featured. HRW bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls
have gained some upside near-term technical momentum
recently. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $8.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the March low of $7.23. First resistance is seen at
Tuesday’s high of $7.69 and then at $7.75. First support is
seen at Tuesday’s low of $7.56 1/4 and then at $7.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May oats closed down 1 1/4 cents at $3.99 3/4 Tuesday.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw mild profit taking.
Oats bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.85. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the contract high of $4.05. First support lies at
Tuesday’s low of $3.97 and then at $3.95. First resistance
is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.02 3/4 and then at $4.05.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 12 points at 17.85 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh five-week low. A stronger U.S. dollar index
this week has helped to pressure sugar. The sugar bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 18.73 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the February low of 17.67 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 18.01 cents and then
at this week’s high of 18.22 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 17.77 cents and then at 17.67 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May coffee closed up 200 points at 137.60 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. The coffee bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 140.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
132.05 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 138.80 cents and then at 140.00 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 135.30 cents and then at
this week’s low of 134.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

May cocoa closed up $19 at $2,149 a ton. Prices closed near
mid-range today on short covering in a bear market. The
cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $2,200. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $2,075. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,171 and then at
last week’s high of $2,186. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $2,124 and then at $2,100. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

May cotton closed up 118 points at 87.77 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw a corrective
bounce from recent strong selling pressure. Bulls are
fading need to show more power soon. The cotton bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 85.59 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 88.88 cents and then at 90.00 cents. First support
is seen at 87.00 cents and then at today’s low of 86.51
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May orange juice closed down 45 points at $1.3895 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The FCOJ bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the March high of $1.4030. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.3200. First resistance
is seen at $1.4030 and then at $1.4200. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $1.3815 and then at $1.3700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May lumber futures closed up $1.70 at $384.20 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the late-
February low of $372.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $395.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $387.00 and then at $390.00. First
support is seen at this week low of $382.50 and then at
last week’s low of $379.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $8.50 an ounce at
$1,596.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw more profit taking. The stronger U.S. dollar index
this week has also limited the upside in gold. The gold
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $1,616.50. Bears' next near-term
downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at $1,575.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,605.00 and then at this week’s
high of $1,612.80. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $1,588.40 and then at $1,580.00. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 4.0

May silver futures closed down $0.105 an ounce at $28.71
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Not much new in
this market, technically. Silver bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices have been trading sideways for
the past few weeks as the bulls have stabilized the market.
This sideways trading could also be "basing" action that
can put in market lows and occurs just before an uptrend
begins. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $29.495
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the March low of $27.925. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $28.89 and then at $29.00. Next support
is seen at this week’s low of $28.46 and then at last
week’s low of $28.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 90 points at 345.40 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering. The stronger U.S. dollar index has helped to
limit buying interest in copper recently. Copper bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 351.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the August 2012 low of 332.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 348.65 cents and
then at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 343.85 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed up $1.42 at $96.23 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh five-
week high today. Crude has rallied this week despite a
stronger U.S. dollar index, and that’s a BULLISH clue for
crude (I mistakenly said a bearish clue on Monday). Crude
oil bulls have the near-term technical advantage and gained
more upside momentum today. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close solid chart resistance at $98.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $93.70. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $96.45 and then at $97.00. First
support is seen at $95.65 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

May heating oil closed up 205 points at $3.0035 today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0600. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
November low of $2.9183. First resistance lies at this
week’s high of $3.0225 and then at $3.0400. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.9731 and then at last week’s
low of $2.9551. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 534 points at
$3.1076 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
The gasoline bulls and bears are now back on a level near-
term technical playing field. Prices are still in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.1750. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at the March low of $3.0151. First resistance
is seen at $3.1250 and then at $3.1500. First support is
seen at $3.0750 and then at $3.0500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

May natural gas closed up 10.6 cents at $3.994 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Prices are
hovering just below last week’s 15-month high. Cold weather
over much of the U.S. is still bullish for nat gas. Nat gas
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $4.10. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.72. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.05 and then at
$4.10. First support is seen at $3.95 and then at this
week’s low of $3.885. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 5 points at 1.2867 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and closed at a fresh four-month low close.
The Euro bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.3094. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2750. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2900 and then at 1.2950.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2836 and then at
1.2800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 54 points at 1.0588
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.0900. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of 1.0345. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.0698 and then at 1.0750.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0536 and then
at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 6 points at 1.0554 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The Swissy bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at this week’s high of 1.0738. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
1.0463. First resistance is seen at 1.0600 and then at last
week’s high of 1.0652. First support is seen at today’s low
of 1.0531 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 27 points at 1.0420
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh two-month high. Bulls have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep three-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the January high of 1.0474. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0273. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0432
and then at 1.0474. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0382 and then at 1.0354. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The June Canadian dollar closed up 54 points at .9824
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh five-week high. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. However, bulls are gaining upside
momentum as prices have been trending higher for the past
three weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at .9870. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
.9704. First resistance is seen at the .9850 and then at
.9870. First support is seen at .9800 and then at today’s
low of .9768. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June British pound closed down 22 points at 1.5153
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5311.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.5000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5201 and then at
this week’s high of 1.5260. First support is seen at 1.5100
and then at last week’s low of 1.5019. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up .030 at 83.025 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of 83.42. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 81.830. Next resistance lies at today’s high
of 83.165 and then at last week’s high of 83.315. First
support is seen at 82.750 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1/32 at 143 17/32 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Trading has turned
choppy. Bond market bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of 140 14/32.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
March high of 144 29/32. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 143 31/32 and then at 144 16/32. First
support is seen at 143 even and then at this week’s low of
142 20/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 3.0 (32nds) at 131.21.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh four-week high close. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 132.00.5. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
March low of 130.00.0. First resistance is seen at last
week’s and this week’s high of 131.24.0 and then at
132.00.5. First support is seen at 131.16.0 and then at
today’s low of 131.10.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today. As far as risk assets go, the stock market is
the only game in town for many investors, and that is
fueling the record bull market run in stocks. The market
place is still digesting and is still a bit uneasy
regarding the agreement reached Monday among European Union
finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund and the
Cyprus government on a bailout for Cyprus’ banking system
that kept the island nation in the European monetary
system. Since that news early Monday there have been
statements from EU officials that have made the market
place more uneasy, such as the Cyprus bailout being a
"template" for future EU banking problems. Banks in Cyprus
remain closed and are scheduled to reopen Thursday. This
latest flare-up in the European Union sovereign debt crisis
is a reminder of the enormity and severity of that
situation, overall.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 17.50 at 2,801.75
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 2,815.00. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the March low of 2,711.75.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,811.50
and then at 2,817.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of 2,784.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,771.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 10.60 at 1,557.50.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh five-year high close. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,575.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,520.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1,560.30 and then at 1,570.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,547.10 and then at this week’s low of
1,539.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 92 points at 14,478 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh
all-time high close. There was not follow-through selling
pressure on Tuesday and a bearish "key reversal" down was
not confirmed on the daily bar chart. The bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 14,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 14,150. First resistance
in the Dow lies at 14,500 and then at 14,550. First support
is seen at today’s low of 14,445 and then at 14,400 and
then at 14,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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