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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Mar 6

Mar 07, 2013

Wednesday Evening, March 6-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.82 at
$128.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
after hitting a fresh 10-month low early on today. The
market was pressured by weak cash cattle market
fundamentals this week. The longer-term weekly cattle
futures chart remains in a bullish posture, which does hint
that there is not much downside left in this present price
downtrend. Still, cattle futures bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $130.80. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
today’s low of $127.30. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $129.35 and then at $130.00. First support is seen
at $128.00 and then at today’s low of $127.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

April feeder cattle closed down $1.35 at $142.25 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit a
fresh contract low. The feeder bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $145.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $140.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $142.60 and
then at $143.00. First support is seen at $142.00 and then
at today’s contract low of 141.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0

April lean hogs closed steady at $79.25 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and did hit another
fresh contract low early on. The hog bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy 3.5-month-
old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. There are
still no early technical clues that a market bottom is
close at hand. The next upside price breakout objective for
the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $82.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $78.00. First resistance is seen at
$80.00 and then at $80.65. First support is seen at today’s
contract low of $78.25 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded down 18 1/2 cents
at $6.90 1/2 today in late trading. Prices were near the
session low today. Bears gained fresh downside near-term
technical momentum today. Traders are awaiting Friday’s
latest USDA supply and demand report, which traders expect
not to be bullish. Corn bulls' next upside price objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $7.12 3/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of $6.78 1/2. First resistance for May corn is
seen at $6.95 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $6.90 1/4 and then at $6.85. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

May soybeans were up 1/4 cent at $14.66 3/4 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
However, the bulls do have in their favor a choppy uptrend
that is in place from the January low. Traders are awaiting
Friday’s USDA supply and demand report. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$13.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$14.75 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $14.81 3/4.
First support is seen at today’s low of $14.55 1/2 and then
at $14.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May soybean meal was down $0.80 at $435.10 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range. Bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$443.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $420.00. First resistance
comes in at $438.00 and then at $440.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $431.90 and then at $430.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May bean oil was up 16 points at 50.29 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and saw
short covering in a bear market. Bean oil bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 48.67
cents. First resistance is seen at 50.50 cents and then at
this week’s high of 50.75 cents. First support is seen at
50.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.48 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May Chicago SRW wheat was down 17 cents at $6.89 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and hit a
fresh 8.5-month low. Good moisture in the U.S. Plains
states recently, and more in the forecast, has been bearish
for the wheat market recently. Prices are in a seven-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are
awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $7.26 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last June’s
low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at
today’s high of $7.08. First support lies at today’s low of
$6.87 and then at $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May HRW wheat was down 14 3/4 cents at $7.30 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and hit a
fresh 8.5-month low. HRW bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.75. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is seen
at $7.40 and then at today’s high of $7.46. First support
is seen at today’s low of $7.29 1/2 and then at $7.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May oats were down 4 1/4 cents at $3.84 1/2 in late trading
today. Prices were near the session low and saw profit
taking. Oats bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $3.58 1/4. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of $3.93
1/2. First support lies at $3.83 1/2 and then at $3.80.
First resistance is seen at $3.88 and then at $3.91.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 1 point at 18.18 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The sugar bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
18.59 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the February low of 17.67 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 18.28 cents and then at 18.46
cents. First support is seen at 18.07 cents and then at
this week’s low of 17.91 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

May coffee closed down 25 points at 140.90 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week
low. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside breakout objective for
the bulls is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of 147.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the February
contract low of 137.60 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 142.35 cents and then at 145.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 140.00 cents
and then at 137.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May cocoa closed down $16 at $2,043 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low and hit a fresh contract low today.
The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues that a
market bottom is close at hand. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $2,156. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,060 and then at this week’s high of
$2,085. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$2,038 and then at $2,025. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May cotton closed up 26 points at 87.24 cents today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and hit another
fresh 9.5-month high. The cotton bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 83.00 cents. First resistance is seen today’s high of
87.59 cents and then at 88.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 86.61 cents and then at 85.84 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May orange juice closed down 110 points at $1.2240 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the February high of $1.3200. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.2000. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1.2410 and then at $1.2500.
First support is seen at $1.2190 and then at $1.2100.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed down $2.70 at $389.70 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $372.50. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$410.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$395.40 and then at $400.00. First support is seen at
$387.50 and then at $385.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $1.50 an ounce at
$1,576.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
tepid short covering. Gains in safe-haven gold have been
limited by a “risk on” trader mentality in the market place
this week, as the DJIA has hit a new all-time high. Gold
prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,619.70.
Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $1,554.40. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $1,585.80 and then at $1,590.00. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $1,564.00 and then at
the February low of $1,554.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

May silver futures closed up $0.196 an ounce at $28.805
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. May silver bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $29.495
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of $27.925. First resistance is seen at
$29.00 and then at $29.19. Next support is seen at today’s
low of $28.52 and then at the February low of $28.315.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 200 points at 349.50 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh four-month low close. Copper bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 360.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 343.75 cents. First resistance is seen at
352.50 cents and then at this week’s high of 354.45 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 348.70 cents and
then at last week’s low of 347.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $0.41 a barrel at
$90.41 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. A higher
U.S. dollar index was a bearish factor for crude oil today.
The crude oil bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
solid chart resistance at $92.00 a barrel. The next near-
term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $87.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$91.17 and then at $92.00. First support is seen at $90.00
and then at this week’s low of $89.33. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

April heating oil closed down 30 points at $2.9700 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at the December low of $2.8900. First resistance
lies at $3.0000 and then at $3.0200. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2.9550 and then at $2.9200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 259 points at
$3.1223 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The
gasoline bears have the near-term technical advantage. A
bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.0000. First resistance is
seen at $3.1500 and then at today’s high of $3.1719. First
support is seen at $3.1000 and then at this week’s low of
$3.0786. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

April natural gas closed down 5.0 cents at $3.479 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Nat gas bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $3.67. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.25. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.55 and then at this week’s high of
$3.594. First support is seen $3.45 and then at last week’s
low of $3.385. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 53 points at 1.2998 today. Prices closed near
the session low and closed at a fresh three-month low close
today. The Euro bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained some fresh downside momentum today. A
five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 1.3325. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.2900. First resistance for the Euro lies at
this week’s high of 1.3086 and then at 1.3110. Next support
is seen at last week’s low of 1.2979 and then at 1.2950.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 91 points at 1.0635
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the February high of 1.0114.
Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of
1.0600. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0760
and then at 1.0800. First support is seen at 1.0600 and
then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 70 points at 1.0560 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Prices are in a
steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
Swissy bears have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First
resistance is seen at 1.0600 and then at today’s high of
1.0645. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0559 and
then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 4 points at 1.0160
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears
still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are
still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0275. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at this week’s low of
1.0038. First resistance is seen at 1.0200 and then at
today’s high of 1.0221. Next support is seen at 1.0136 and
then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The June Canadian dollar closed down 35 points at .9672
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a
fresh eight-month low close today. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9760. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9600. First resistance is seen at
.9700 and then at today’s high of .9728. First support is
seen at last week’s low of .9646 and then at .9600.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June British pound closed down 80 points at 1.5025
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep nine-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.5300. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at 1.48000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5140 and then at
this week’s high of 1.5193. First support is seen at last
week’s low of 1.4978 and 1.4900. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up .383 points at 82.740
today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed
at a fresh six-month high close. The bulls have the near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum
today. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.000.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 81.37. Next resistance lies at last week’s
high of 82.795 and then at 83.000. First support is seen at
83.500 and then at this week’s low of 82.165. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 28/32 at 142 25/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today on more
profit taking and amid the “risk-on” investor attitudes
this week as the DJIA hits new highs. Bond market bears
have regained the near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 142 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 145
even. First resistance is seen at 143 even and then at
today’s high of 143 21/32. First support is seen at today’s
low of 142 23/32 and then at 142 16/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 11.5 (32nds) at 131.05.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on more
profit taking. Bulls are fading and are now back on a level
near-term playing field with the bears. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at this week’s high of 132.00.5. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.24.0. First resistance is seen at 131.11.0 and then at
today’s high of 131.17.0. First support is seen at today’s
low of 131.04.0 and then at 131.00.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrial average hitting
a new all-time record high and the S&P index at a fresh
five-year high. The Fed’s beige book said its reporting
districts are seeing moderate to modest economic growth,
and not at the pace which would suggest adjusting present
U.S. monetary policy. That was bullish for stocks today.
Arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the
month, the employment situation report for February, is due
out Friday morning. The key non-farm payroll number is
expected to come in at up 157,000, while the unemployment
rate is forecast at 7.8%. The European Central Bank also
holds its monthly meeting and press conference on Thursday.
While the ECB is expected to announce no major changes to
its monetary policy, traders will closely scrutinize ECB
chief Mario Draghi’s remarks at his press conference
following the meeting. The buzz of the overall market place
Wednesday was the new all-time record high posted by the
Dow Jones Industrial Average this week. The general media
picked up on that news and featured it heavily Tuesday
evening. The “risk-on” trader attitudes that are fueling
the stock market rally. However, when the general media
picks up on a trending market move, it’s an early clue that
market move has probably just about run its course.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 7.50 at 2,790.75
today. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking
after hitting a fresh five-month high early on today. Bulls
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the September high of 2,871.75.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 2,689.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,809.25 and then at 2,825.00. First
support is seen at 2,775.00 and then at 2,761.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 1.90 at 1,539.00.
Prices closed near mid-range today and poked to another
fresh five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,575.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
February low of 1,482.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,544.60 and then at 1,550.00. First
support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1,524.80 and then at
1,515.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 32 points at 14,265 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh all-time
high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 14,500.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
13,770. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
14,305 and then at 14,350. First support is seen at 14,250
and then at 14,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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