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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 13

Mar 14, 2012

Tuesday Evening, March 13-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed up $0.97 at $127.72
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering and bargain hunting. The bulls today
did regain some upside technical momentum. A potential bear
flag on the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
$129.45. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $125.15. First
resistance is seen at $128.00 and then at $128.30. First
support is seen at today’s low of $127.05 and then at
$126.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May feeder cattle closed up $1.40 at $159.02 today. Prices
closed near the session high again today and saw more short
covering and bargain hunting. Bulls regained some fresh
upside near-term technical momentum today. The next upside
price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above technical resistance at $160.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $155.50. First resistance is seen at $159.50
and then at $160.00. First support is seen at $158.50 and
then at $158.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

April lean hogs closed up $0.40 at $87.70 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Serious near-term technical
damage has also been inflicted recently. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag pattern
may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at $89.40. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $85.50. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $87.90 and then at $88.50. First support is seen at
$87.00 and then at last week’s low of $86.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 1 3/4 cents at $6.61
1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh two-month high. Another big USDA export sale
announcement for corn boosted the market today. Corn market
bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls
are on the verge of producing a bullish upside “breakout”
from the sideways trading range on the daily chart. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
January high of $6.72 1/2. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the March low of $6.31 3/4.
First resistance for March corn is seen at today’s high of
$6.66 3/4 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at
today’s low of $6.56 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

May soybeans closed up 14 1/4 cents at $13.48 3/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh six-month high close. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bean prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $13.55 1/2 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $13.15 1/4. First resistance is seen at $13.55
1/2 and then at $13.65. First support is seen at $13.40 and
then at today’s low of $13.31 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

May soybean meal closed up $3.00 at $365.10 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Meal bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$350.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$367.80 and then at last week’s high of $370.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $361.70 and then at
$360.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed up 80 points at 54.76 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high. Prices were boosted on short covering,
bargain hunting and by firmer crude oil prices. Bean oil
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of 55.25 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 52.88 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 54.91 cents and then at 55.25 cents. First
support is seen at 54.50 cents and then at 54.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 2 1/2 cents at $6.48 3/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Wheat
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$6.60 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $6.28.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.57 1/2 and
then at $6.65. First support lies at today’s low of $6.45
1/4 and then at this week’s low of $6.38. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents at $6.87 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $7.00. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $6.76
1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.97 1/2
and then at $7.00. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $6.81 and then at last week’s low of $6.76. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

May oats closed up 4 1/2 cents at $3.07 1/2 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and saw more
short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near-
term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $2.81 1/2.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $3.24. First support lies at $3.05 and
then at today’s low of $3.00 3/4. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $3.08 3/4 and then at $3.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 36 points at 24.13 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high again today and
saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Sugar bears
still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Sugar
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at 25.00
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at the
February low of 22.85 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 24.19 cents and then at 24.31 cents. First
support is seen at 23.75 cents and then at today’s low of
23.54 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May coffee closed up 90 points at 185.75 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a 15-month
low. There are reports Brazil, the number-one coffee
producer, is set to harvest a massive crop this year.
Prices are in a choppy, 6.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above major
psychological resistance at 200.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 175.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 186.60 cents
and then at 190.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 183.35 cents and then at this week’s low of 181.05
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May cocoa closed down $16 at $2,367 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. Bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$2,467. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $2,260. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2,395 and then at this week’s high
of $2,426. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,336
and then at $2,325. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May cotton closed up 32 points at 88.32 cents today. Prices
closed near mid-range again today in quieter trading. Tepid
short covering in a bear market was featured today. News
that India has said it will resume cotton exports is a
bearish factor for cotton. Cotton bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the March high of
94.24 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 84.23 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 87.94 cents and then at
this week’s low of 87.01 cents. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 89.16 cents and then at 90.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

May orange juice closed up 80 points at $1.8650 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. FCOJ bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
last week’s high of $1.9695. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.8000. First resistance
is seen at this week’s high of $1.8840 and then at $1.9000.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.8275 and then at
$1.8200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed up $2.40 at $272.90 today. The
lumber bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field amid choppy trading. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $267.70. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of $285.40.
First resistance is seen at $275.00 and then at $278.00.
First support is seen at $269.60 and then at $267.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $6.10 an ounce at
$1,693.80 today. In after-hours trading losses were
extended sharply and prices fell to a fresh seven-week low
and fresh chart damage was inflicted. The gold market
started to slip further in early-afternoon trading, in the
aftermath of an upbeat statement from the Federal Open
Market Committee that suggested there will be no fresh
quantitative easing measures from the Federal Reserve
coming soon. The FOMC statement said the U.S. economy is
improving and implied there are no worrisome inflationary
price pressures on the horizon. Gold was hit with another
punch later Tuesday afternoon when the big U.S. bank J.P.
Morgan announced it has passed its stress test, is giving
out a dividend and is also paying back some of its
government-imposed loan. This news boosted the U.S. stock
market even higher and gave the market place more of a
"risk on" attitude, sending safe haven asset gold solidly
lower. The U.S. dollar index rallied on the aforementioned
news events Tuesday afternoon, which further pressured the
precious metals. The bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at $1,688.40
and then at 1,700.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $1,662.10 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

May silver futures closed up $0.142 an ounce at $33.555
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
some short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside
markets” were neutral for silver today, as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer while crude oil prices were also firmer.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $35.00 an ounce.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $32.49. First resistance is seen at $34.00 and then
at this week’s high of $34.41. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $33.12 and then at $33.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 610 points 389.85 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were neutral for copper today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer while crude oil prices were
also firmer. Copper bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of 370.25
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 391.65
cents and then at 395.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 384.15 cents and then at this week’s low of
381.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed up $0.27 a barrel at
$106.61 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in
quieter trading. Gains were limited by a firmer U.S. dollar
index. Crude oil bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above psychological resistance at $110.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the March low of $104.35. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $107.56 and then at $108.00.
First support is seen at $106.00 and then at this week’s
low of $105.38 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

April heating oil closed up 254 points at $3.2683 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-
week high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April 2011 high of $3.3422. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1605. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.2836 and then at $3.3000. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.2390 and then at this
week’s low of $3.2198. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 295 points at
$3.3525 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $3.3868. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $3.1968.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.3704 and
then at $3.3868. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.3224 and then at $3.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

April natural gas closed up 5.5 cents at $2.324 today.
Prices closed near the session high after hitting another
fresh contract low and 10-year low today. Prices also
scored a mildly bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart today. If there is strong follow-through buying
interest on Wednesday, then a bullish “key reversal” up on
the daily bar chart would be confirmed, which would be one
early technical clue that a market low is in place. But
right now the bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $2.10. First resistance is seen
at $2.40 and then at $2.45. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $2.204 and then at $2.15. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 76 points at 1.3080 today. Prices closed near
the session low today and hit a fresh four-week low. Prices
also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart today. Bears have gained the slight near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 1.3494. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3100 and then at 1.3150.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.3059 and then at
1.3000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 91 points at 1.2076
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit
another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep six-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 1.2421. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.2000. First resistance is seen at
1.2100 and then at 1.2150. First support is seen at today’s
contract low of 1.2053 and then at 1.2000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 67 points at 1.0850 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
four-week low. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart today. Bears now have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.1034. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
1.0781. First resistance is seen at 1.0900 and then at
today’s high of 1.0951. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0834 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 17 points at 1.0401
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week low. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading a bit. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the
February high of 1.0720. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0300. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.0459 and then at 1.0500. Next support
is seen at this week’s low of 1.0359 and then at 1.0300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The June Canadian dollar closed up 34 points at 1.0079
today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A 3.5-
month-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the February high of
1.0133. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the March low of .9949. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0091 and then at last week’s high of 1.0106.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0053 and then at
this week’s low of 1.0032. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed up 64 points at 1.5685 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a seven-week low. Bulls
have faded recently and bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 1.5971. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5500. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5738 and then at 1.5800. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.5591 and then at
1.5550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 28 points at 80.63
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh seven-week high. Bulls have near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at the January high of
82.28. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies at
today’s high of 80.80 and then at 81.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 80.10 and then at last week’s low of
79.53. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 18/32 at 138 31/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
3.5-month low. The market was pressured by an upbeat FOMC
statement from the Federal Reserve. The bulls are fading
badly now as the market today saw what could be the
beginning of a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways
trading range on the daily bar chart. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 137 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 141 5/32. First resistance is seen at 139 11/32 and then
at 139 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 138
31/32 and then at 138 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 24.0 (32nds) at 130.00.0
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit a fresh seven-week low. An upbeat FOMC statement
pressured the notes today. Bulls faded some more today but
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at this
week’s high of 131.04.5. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at the January low of 129.16.0. First
resistance is seen at 130.10.0 and then at 130.16.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 129.31.0 and then at
129.24.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly higher today. The indexes extended gains in early-
afternoon trading, in the aftermath of an upbeat statement
from the Federal Open Market Committee that suggested there
will be no fresh quantitative easing measures from the
Federal Reserve coming soon. The FOMC statement said the
U.S. economy is improving and implied there are no
worrisome inflationary price pressures on the horizon. The
indexes got a better boost later Tuesday afternoon when the
big U.S. bank J.P. Morgan announced it has passed its
stress test, is giving out a dividend and is also paying
back some of its government-imposed loan. This gave the
market place more of a "risk on" attitude.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 47.00 at 2,694.00.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and soared to
another fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,750.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of 2,575.00. First resistance is seen at
2,700.00 and then at 2,725.00. First support is seen at
2,675.00 and then at 2,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 24.10 at 1,390.70.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh nearly
four-year high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,425.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at last
week’s low of 1,338.80. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,391.20 and then at 1,400.00. First support is
seen at 1,375.00 and then at today’s low of 1,366.10.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

The Dow futures closed up 212 points at 13,109 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four-
year high today. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
13,500. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 12,698. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s
high of 13,115 and then at 13,140. First support is seen at
13,050 and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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