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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 14

Mar 15, 2012

Wednesday Evening, March 14-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.70 at
$127.02 today. Prices closed near the session low today as
trading has turned choppy. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Bulls still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need
to show fresh power soon to keep it. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the January high of $129.45.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $125.15. First resistance is
seen at $127.50 and then at $128.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $127.00 and then at $126.75. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

May feeder cattle closed down $0.27 at $158.75 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw mild profit taking.
Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above technical resistance at
$160.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $155.50. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $159.25 and then at $159.80.
First support is seen at today’s low of $158.40 and then at
$158.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

April lean hogs closed down $0.27 at $87.40 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. The
key “outside markets” were bearish for hogs today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
weaker. Serious near-term technical damage has also been
inflicted recently. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A bear flag pattern still may be
forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $89.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
$85.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$87.90 and then at $88.50. First support is seen at $87.00
and then at last week’s low of $86.60. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 2 cents at $6.60
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and saw a
mild corrective pullback from recent gains. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for corn today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker.
Corn market bulls still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Bulls are on the verge of producing a bullish
upside “breakout” from the sideways trading range on the
daily chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of $6.72 1/2. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of $6.31 3/4. First resistance for March corn is
seen at this week’s high of $6.66 3/4 and then at $6.70.
First support is seen at today’s low of $6.54 1/4 and then
at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May soybeans closed up 4 3/4 cents at $13.53 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
six-month high. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
beans today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were weaker. That did limit the upside in beans.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Bean prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above major psychological resistance at $14.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $13.15 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $13.60 3/4 and then at $13.75. First support is
seen at today’s low of $13.46 1/2 and then at $13.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $366.90 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Meal bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$350.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$368.70 and then at last week’s high of $370.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $364.40 and then at
$361.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed down 9 points at 54.78 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
two-week high. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were weaker. Bean oil bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of 55.25 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
52.88 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
55.12 cents and then at 55.25 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 54.51 cents and then at 54.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 4 cents at $6.45 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for wheat today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Wheat
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$6.60 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $6.28.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.51 and then
at this week’s high of $6.57 1/2. First support lies at
this week’s low of $6.38 and then at last week’s low of
$6.33 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents at $6.81 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today. Bears have
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at $7.00. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $6.76
1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.90 and
then at this week’s high of $6.97 1/2. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $6.81 and then at last week’s
low of $6.76. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May oats closed up 5 cents at $3.12 1/2 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today and closed at a
fresh two-week high close. The market saw more short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below major psychological
support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of $3.24. First
support lies at $3.10 and then at today’s low of $3.05 1/2.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.14 and then
at $3.16 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 25 points at 24.38 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Sugar
bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
25.00 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at this week’s low of 23.26 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 24.48 cents and then at 24.75 cents.
First support is seen at 24.00 cents and then at today’s
low of 23.85 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May coffee closed down 325 points at 182.90 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and closed at a fresh
15-month low close. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for coffee today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were weaker. There are reports Brazil, the
number-one coffee producer, is set to harvest a massive
crop this year. Prices are in a choppy, 6.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls'
next upside breakout objective is to close prices above
major psychological resistance at 200.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 175.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
186.60 cents and then at 190.00 cents. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 181.05 cents and then at 180.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May cocoa closed down $62 at $2,310 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa
bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $2,467. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $2,260. First resistance is seen at $2,350
and then at today’s high of $2,379. First support is seen
at $2,300 and then at today’s low of $2,280. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

May cotton closed down 90 points at 87.14 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a
fresh 11-week low close. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for cotton today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Cotton bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 90.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the December low of 84.23 cents. First support
is seen at this week’s low of 87.01 cents and then at 86.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 88.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 88.59 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May orange juice closed up 140 points at $1.8720 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on some short
covering and bargain hunting. FCOJ bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at last week’s
high of $1.9695. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.8000. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of $1.8840 and then at $1.9000.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.8405 and then at
this week’s low of $1.8275. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed up $3.60 at $276.50 today. The
lumber bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage
amid choppy trading. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$267.70. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $285.40. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $279.70 and then at
$281.00. First support is seen at $275.00 and then at
$272.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $52.40 an ounce
at $1,641.40 today. Prices closed near the session low,
dropped sharply again today to a fresh two-month low as
fresh chart damage was inflicted. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for the gold market today as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. The
market place has taken on more of a "risk on" attitude,
sending safe haven asset gold solidly lower. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance
is seen at $1,650.00 and then at 1,675.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1,636.20 and then at $1,625.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May silver futures closed down $1.766 an ounce at $31.825
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh seven-week low. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the silver market today as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker.
Significant near-term chart damage was inflicted today.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $34.41 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below major
psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is seen
at $32.00 and then at $32.49. Next support is seen at
today’s low of $31.65 and then at $31.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 625 points 384.00 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the copper market today as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
weaker. Copper bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of 370.25
cents. First resistance is seen at 387.75 cents and then at
390.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of
381.70 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $1.14 a barrel at
$115.56 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Crude prices were pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index.
Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above psychological resistance at $110.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the March low of $104.35. First resistance is
seen at $106.00 and then at $107.00. First support is seen
at $105.00 and then at 104.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

April heating oil closed down 50 points at $3.2662 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh two-week high early on today. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the April 2011 high of
$3.3422. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.1605.
First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.3032 and then
at $3.3422. First support is seen at $3.2500 and then at
this week’s low of $3.2198. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 71 points at
$3.3475 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
after hitting a fresh two-week high early on. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $3.3868. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $3.1968.
First resistance is seen at $3.3868 and then at $3.4000.
First support is seen at $3.3224 and then at $3.3000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

April natural gas closed down 1.5 cents at $2.284 today.
Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. Prices
Tuesday hit a contract low and 10-year low. There was not
follow-through buying interest on Wednesday and a bullish
“key reversal” up on the daily bar chart was not confirmed.
The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$2.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.344
and then at $2.40. First support is seen at the contract
low of $2.204 and then at $2.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 53 points at 1.3029 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today and hit another fresh four-week low.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 1.3098. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
the February low of 1.2987. First resistance for the Euro
lies at today’s high if 1.3098 and then at 1.3150. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.3017 and then at
1.2987. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 121 points at 1.1955
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
clues to suggest a market low is close at hand. Prices are
in a steep six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of
1.2213. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.1750. First
resistance is seen at 1.2000 and then at today’s high of
1.2076. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
1.1957 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 83 points at 1.0765 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
two-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.1034. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 1.0489. First
resistance is seen at 1.0800 and then at today’s high of
1.0843. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0727 and
then at 1.0700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 66 points at 1.0327
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh seven-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but are fading. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the February high of 1.0720. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0200. First
resistance is seen at 1.0400 and then at this week’s high
of 1.0459. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0314
and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 25 points at 1.0042
today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored
a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
3.5-month-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the February
high of 1.0133. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of .9949. First resistance is seen
at 1.0075 and then at last week’s high of 1.0106. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0032 and then at
1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The June British pound closed down 16 points at 1.5663
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Monday hit a seven-week low. Bulls have faded recently and
bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of 1.5971. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.5500. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.5738 and then at 1.5800. First support is seen at this
week’s low of 1.5591 and then at 1.5550. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 35 points at 81.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-month high. Bulls have near-term technical
advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum this week.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of 82.28. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies
at today’s high of 81.06 and then at 81.50. First support
is seen at today’s low of 80.57 and then at this week’s low
of 80.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 2 21/32 at 136 19/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and careened to a
fresh 4.5-month low. The market is pressured by an upbeat
FOMC statement from the Federal Reserve Tuesday and a
better risk appetite in the market place. Serious near-term
chart damage has occurred this week as the market has seen
a bearish downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range
on the daily bar chart. Bears are in near-term technical
control for the first time in months. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
133 17/32. The next upside technical objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 140 even. First resistance is seen at 137
even and then at 137 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 136 12/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 1 11.0 (32nds) at 128.24.5
today. Prices closed near the session low again today and
hit a fresh three-month low. An upbeat FOMC statement
Tuesday and better risk appetite have pressured the notes.
Bears now have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 128.04.5. First resistance is seen at
129.00.0 and then at 129.16.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 128.20.0 and then at 128.16.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today and did some consolidating following recent
gains that have taken the indexes to multi-year highs. An
upbeat statement from the Federal Open Market Committee
Tuesday is bullish for stocks and is giving the market
place more of a "risk on" attitude.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 9.25 at 2,703.25.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
11-year high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,750.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
2,575.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,713.75 and then at 2,725.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 2,686.00 and then at 2,650.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 2.20 at 1,388.50.
Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh nearly
four-year high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1,425.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at last
week’s low of 1,338.80. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,393.60 and then at 1,400.00. First support is
seen at 1,375.00 and then at 1,366.10. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 16 points at 13,125 today. Prices
closed near mid-range and hit a fresh four-year high today.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 13,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 12,698.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,150
and then at 13,200. First support is seen at 13,050 and
then at 13,000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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