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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 15

Mar 16, 2012

Thursday Evening, March 15-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $1.52 at
$125.50 today. Prices closed near the session low today,
scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily
bar chart and closed at a fresh two-month low close. Bulls
faded badly today. Bears now have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at today’s high of $128.05. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $125.15. First resistance is seen at
$126.00 and then at $126.70. First support is seen at
today’s low of $125.50 and then at $125.15. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

May feeder cattle closed down $1.45 at $157.30 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and saw more profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but did fade today. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above technical resistance at $160.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$155.50. First resistance is seen at $158.00 and then at
today’s high of $158.60. First support is seen at today’s
low of $157.00 and then at $156.25. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

April lean hogs closed down $0.55 at $86.85 today. Prices
closed near the session low and scored a bearish “outside
day” down on the daily bar chart today. Serious near-term
technical damage has also been inflicted recently. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$89.40. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
the December low of $85.50. First resistance is seen at
$87.50 and then at today’s high of $88.00. First support is
seen at the March low of $86.60 and then at $86.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 7 1/2 cents at $6.66
1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and hit
a fresh four-month high. Solid weekly export sales and a
weaker U.S. dollar index boosted corn today. Corn market
bulls have the near-term technical advantage and gained
more upside momentum today. Prices have seen a bullish
upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range on the
daily chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $6.83 1/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at 6.50.
First resistance for March corn is seen at today’s high of
$6.73 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at $6.60 and
then at $6.54 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May soybeans closed up 17 3/4 cents at $13.68 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit
another fresh six-month high. The market was supported by a
weaker U.S. dollar index, solid weekly USDA export sales
and by more reports of a smaller South American soybean
crop due to dry and hot weather there. Bean bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bean prices are in a
three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above major
psychological resistance at $14.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $13.25.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $13.70 and then
at $13.75. First support is seen at $13.55 1/2 and then at
$13.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed up $3.50 at $370.70 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh six-
month high. Meal bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $375.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at this week’s low of $360.20.
First resistance comes in at today’s high of $371.30 and
then at $375.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$366.30 and then at $364.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed up 62 points at 55.42 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh six-
month high today. The bean oil market was supported by a
weaker U.S. dollar index today. Bean oil bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh
upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 57.50 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 53.92 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 55.70 cents and then
at 56.00 cents. First support is seen at 55.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 54.74. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 20 1/4 cents at $6.64
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering and bargain hunting. There are also reports of a
short crop in parts of eastern Europe. The weaker U.S.
dollar index today was also supportive for wheat. Wheat
bears still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push
and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at the March high of $6.77 3/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of $6.33 1/2. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.67 1/4 and then at
$6.77 3/2. First support lies at $6.57 1/2 and then at
$6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed up 23 1/2 cents at $7.04 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bears still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
major psychological resistance at the March high of $7.22
1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $6.76 1/2. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $7.04 1/2 and then at $7.10. First support
is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.95. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5

May oats closed up 17 3/4 cents at $3.29 today. Prices
closed near the session high again today and hit a fresh
four-month high. The market has seen a big and bullish
“upside breakout” from a choppy and sideways trading range
at lower price levels. Bulls now have solid upside near-
term technical momentum. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.10. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at
$3.24 and then at $3.20. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.30 and then at $3.35. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 106 points at 25.50 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and hit a fresh two-week high on heavy short covering and
bargain hunting. A weaker U.S. dollar index was also
bullish for sugar today. Sugar bulls now have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Sugar bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of 25.81
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
24.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
25.58 cents and then at 25.81 cents. First support is seen
at 25.25 cents and then at 25.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

May coffee closed up 200 points at 185.60 cents. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw short covering
in a bear market. A weaker U.S. dollar index was also
supportive for coffee today. Prices are in a choppy, 6.5-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above major psychological resistance at 200.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
175.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 186.60 cents and then at 190.00 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 182.55 cents and then at
this week’s low of 181.05 cents and then at 180.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May cocoa closed down $88 at $2,226 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Bears are back in near-term
technical control. The next upside price breakout objective
for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $2,426. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $2,144. First resistance is seen at
$2,260 and then at $2,300. First support is seen at $2,200
and then at today’s low of $2,177. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

May cotton closed up 20 points at 87.34 cents today. Prices
closed near the session low again today. Cotton bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 90.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the December low of 84.23 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 87.01 cents and then
at 86.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
88.26 cents and then at this week’s high of 89.16 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May orange juice closed down 20 points at $1.8760 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today in quieter
trading. FCOJ bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.9695.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.8000. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$1.8840 and then at $1.9000. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.8575 and then at this week’s low of
$1.8275. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed down $5.70 at $270.80 today. The
lumber bulls faded today and are back on a level playing
field with the bears in choppy trading. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $267.70. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $281.00. First resistance is
seen at $273.00 and then at $275.00. First support is seen
at $270.00 and then at $267.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed up $16.40 an ounce at
$1,659.30 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and were supported by the solidly lower U.S. dollar index
and firmer crude oil prices today. Short covering was
featured, after prices dropped to a two-month low on
Wednesday. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted this
week. Prices are in a two-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below psychological
support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,675.00
and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,682.80. First support is
seen at $1,650.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,634.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May silver futures closed up $0.519 an ounce at $32.70
today. Prices closed near the session high today today on
short covering following recent losses that sent silver to
a seven-week low on Wednesday. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for the silver market today as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Near-term
chart damage has inflicted this week. Prices are in a two-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $34.41 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below major psychological support
at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $33.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of $33.47. Next support is seen at $32.50
and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May N.Y. copper closed up 515 points 389.95 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the copper market today as the
U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were
firmer. Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 400.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the February low of 370.25 cents. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 391.85 cents and
then at 395.00 cents. First support is seen at 385.00 cents
and then at today’s low of 382.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed down $0.09 a barrel at
$105.35 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today,
hit a fresh four-week low early on, and were roiled by an
erroneous report that the U.S. would tap its SPR. The
government denied the report but it did pressure crude for
a bit. Losses in crude were limited by a weaker U.S. dollar
index today. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above psychological resistance at $110.00
a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the March low of $104.35.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $106.18 and
then at $107.00. First support is seen at $105.00 and then
at 104.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

April heating oil closed down 323 points at $3.2295 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
April 2011 high of $3.3422. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $3.1605. First resistance lies at
$3.2500 and then at today’s high of $3.2696. First support
is seen at today’s low of $3.2000 and then at $3.1605.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 571 points at
$3.2899 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $3.3868. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $3.1968. First resistance is seen at
$3.3000 and then at today’s high of $3.3256. First support
is seen at today’s low of $3.2563 and then at $3.2250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

April natural gas closed down 1.2 cents at $2.272 today.
Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. Prices
Tuesday hit a contract low and 10-year low. The bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $2.10.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2.344 and
then at $2.40. First support is seen at the contract low of
$2.204 and then at $2.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 68 points at 1.3096 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today and scored a bullish “outside day”
up on the daily bar chart after hitting another fresh four-
week low early on. Bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.3098. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at the February
low of 1.2987. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high if 1.3126 and then at this week’s high of
1.3199. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.3009 and
then at 1.2987. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The June Japanese yen closed up 45 points at 1.2002 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market after hitting another fresh
contract low early on. Bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to
suggest a market low is close at hand. Prices are in a
steep six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at this week’s high of 1.2213.
Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.1750. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1.2032 and then at 1.2076. First
support is seen at today’s contract low of 1.1889 and then
at 1.1850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed up 94 points at 1.0854 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering after hitting hit a fresh two-month low early on.
Prices also scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart today. Bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 1.1034. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the January low of 1.0489.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0878 and then
at 1.0900. First support is seen at 1.0800 and then at
today’s low of 1.0725. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 100 points at 1.0431
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at the February high of 1.0720. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0200.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0459 and
then at 1.0500. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0314 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The June Canadian dollar closed up 18 points at 1.0064
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A 3.5-
month-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the February high of
1.0133. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the March low of .9949. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0075 and then at last week’s high of 1.0106.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0030 and then at
1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The June British pound closed up 48 points at 1.5712 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the February high of 1.5971. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5500. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.5738 and then at 1.5800.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.5591 and then
at 1.5550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 47 points at 80.51
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh two-month high early on. The market scored
a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of 82.28. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies
at today’s high of 81.16 and then at 81.50. First support
is seen at today’s low of 80.37 and then at this week’s low
of 80.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 3/32 at 136 17/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh 4.5-month low early on. The market has been pressured
by an upbeat FOMC statement from the Federal Reserve
Tuesday and a better risk appetite in the market place.
Serious near-term chart damage has occurred this week as
the market has seen a bearish downside “breakout” from a
sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. Bears are in
near-term technical control. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of 133
17/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 140
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 137 even
and then at 137 16/32. First support is seen at 136 even
and then at today’s low of 135 18/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 1.5 (32nds) at 128.26.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh 3.5-month low early on. An upbeat FOMC statement
Tuesday and better risk appetite have pressured the notes.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 128.04.5. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 129.02.0 and then at 129.16.0. First
support is seen at 128.16.0 and then at today’s low of
128.07.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today and once again hit multi-year highs. The stock
index bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage
and the path of least resistance for prices will remain
sideways to higher amid no early warning signals that
market tops are close at hand.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 8.50 at 2,711.25.
Prices closed near mid-range again today and hit another
fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,750.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 2,575.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 2,717.25 and then at 2,725.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 2,697.00 and then at 2,686.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 7.60 at 1,396.30.
Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh
nearly four-year high today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,425.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at last
week’s low of 1,338.80. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,397.30 and then at 1,400.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1,385.00 and then at 1,375.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 45 points at 13,175 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh four-
year high today. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
13,500. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 12,698. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s
high of 13,185 and then at 13,200. First support is seen at
today’s low of 13,112 and then at 13,050. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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