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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--March 27

Mar 28, 2012

Tuesday Evening, March 27-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.87 at $121.97
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
more short covering. Cattle futures bears still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
However, my bias is that a market low is in place or close
at hand. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $124.00. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $120.25. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $122.60 and then at
$123.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $121.70
and then at $121.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May feeder cattle closed up $1.35 at $155.07 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw more short covering
from recent strong selling pressure. Bears still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above technical resistance at
$156.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $152.60. First resistance is
seen at $155.50 and then at $156.00. First support is seen
at $154.50 and then at $154.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5

June lean hogs closed up $0.82 at $93.72 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Prices are still in a five-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, this market
may now be at or near a bottom. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $94.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$91.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $94.10
and then at $94.50. First support is seen at $93.00 and
then at $92.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 7 cents at $6.30
3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low again today
and hit a fresh five-week low. The bulls have faded ahead
of what they fear will be a bearish USDA planting
intentions report on Friday. Now, some near-term chart
damage has occurred as a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart has at least temporarily been negated. Bulls and
bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of $6.56. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
6.26. First resistance for March corn is seen at $6.35 and
then at $6.40. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at
$6.26. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans closed down 7 3/4 cents at $13.71 3/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw profit-
taking pressure from recent gains. Traders are awaiting
Friday morning’s key USDA planting intentions and supply
and demand report. Bean bulls reckon that report will be
bullish. Bean bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bean prices are still in a 3.5-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above major psychological
resistance at $14.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$13.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$13.88 1/2 and then at $14.00. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $13.64 and then at $13.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed down $2.50 at $375.40 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low and did hit a fresh six-month
high early on today. Meal bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $363.80. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $379.70 and then at $382.50. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $372.40 and then at $370.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed down 30 points at 55.13 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw some
profit taking from recent gains that took prices to a six-
month high on Monday. Bean oil bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 57.50
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 53.66 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 55.59 cents and
then at this week’s high of 55.82 cents. First support is
seen at 55.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 54.66
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 20 1/2 cents at $6.39
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Perceived
good worldwide wheat supplies hurt the market today.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s key USDA planting
intentions and supply and demand report. Wheat bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of $6.77 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
February low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at $6.50
and then at $6.60. First support lies at the March low of
$6.31 1/4 and then at $6.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 20 cents at $6.79 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage and gained some fresh
downside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $7.05. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $6.68 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.90 and
then at $7.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$6.78 1/4 and then at $6.68 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

May oats closed up 8 cents at $3.40 3/4 today. Prices
closed near the session high today, scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart and closed at a
fresh 4.5-month high close. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum
today. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at $3.35
and then at today’s low of $3.31. First resistance is seen
at the March high of $3.41 and then at $3.45. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 35 points at 24.43 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh two-week low. Bulls have faded badly. Bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of 25.66 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 24.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 24.75 cents and then at 25.00 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 24.26 cents and then at 24.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May coffee closed up 855 points at 187.35 cents. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw heavy short
covering and bargain hunting. Good follow-through buying
yet this week would suggest a market low is in place. But
right now coffee prices are still in a seven-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls'
next upside breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 190.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
174.45 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 188.45 cents and then at 190.00 cents. First
support is seen at 185.00 cents and then at 182.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May cocoa closed up $3 at $2,334 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field at present, amid
choppy trading. The next upside price breakout objective
for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $2,426. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of $2,169. First resistance is seen at $2,350 and
then at today’s high of $2,384. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,321 and then at $2,300. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

May cotton closed up 168 points at 92.59 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high and saw more short covering and bargain
hunting. Cotton bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage, but bulls are gaining upside
momentum to suggest a market low is in place. A bullish
“rounding-bottom” reversal pattern is in place on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the March high of 94.24 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the March low of 87.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 93.18 cents and then at 94.24 cents. First
support is seen at 92.00 cents and then at 91.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May orange juice closed down 75 points at $1.6740 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Serious near-term
chart damage has been inflicted in FCOJ recently. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.8000. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at the December low of $1.6000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.7050 and then at $1.7250. First support
is seen at $1.6600 and then at last week’s low of $1.6440.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May lumber futures closed down $2.20 at $259.3 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the January low of $250.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $270.00. First
resistance is seen at $262.70 and then at today’s high of
$265.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$258.00 and then at $256.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $1.30 an ounce at
$1,684.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and did hit another fresh two-week high early on. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field as
the bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum
recently. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $1,627.50. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,696.90 and then at $1,700.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,679.50 and then
at $1,670.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May silver futures closed down $0.09 an ounce at $32.65
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and did hit a
fresh two-week high early on. Bears still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. However, a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $34.50 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $31.09. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$33.19 and then at $33.50. Next support is seen at $32.50
and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 80 points 387.95 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have
been trading sideways at higher levels for six weeks.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of 375.25 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 390.40 cents and then at 392.50 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 385.50 cents and
then at 382.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed up $0.22 a barrel at
$107.25 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in more
quiet trading. Trading has been choppy on the charts.
Prices have been trading sideways at higher price levels
for the past month. Crude oil bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $108.70 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the March low of
$104.29. First resistance is seen at $108.00 and then at
$108.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $106.52
and then at 106.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May heating oil closed down 101 points at $3.2364 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of $3.3127.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $3.1570. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $3.2526 and then at
$3.2821. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$3.2137 and then at $3.2000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 114 points at
$3.3873 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.5000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.2500. First resistance is
seen at the contract high of $3.4118 and then at $3.4500.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $3.3586 and
then at $3.3261. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May natural gas closed down 2.4 cents at $2.295 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh contract
low. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market low
is close at hand. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $2.20. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of $2.419 and then at $2.50. First support
is seen at today’s contract low of $2.265 and then at
$2.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 10 points at 1.3339 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today after hitting another fresh four-week
high early on. Bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of 1.3494. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid chart support at the March low of
1.3009. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.3391 and then at 1.3450. Next support is seen at
1.3300 and then at 1.3250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 47 points at 1.2039
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 1.2421. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 1.1889. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2109 and then at
this week’s high of 1.2140. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2000 and then at 1.1950. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 8 points at 1.1071 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
four-week high early on. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 1.1213. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0900. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1102 and then at
1.1150. First support is seen at 1.1042 and then at 1.1000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 48 points at 1.0382
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. But
prices have been trending lower for four weeks. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid chart resistance at last week’s high of 1.0529. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 1.0236. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0461 and then at 1.0500. Next support is seen at
this week’s low of 1.0329 and then at 1.0236. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

The June Canadian dollar closed down 18 points at 1.0040
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage amid choppy
trading at higher price levels. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the February high of 1.0133. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
.9946. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0083
and then at 1.0122. First support is seen at 1.0000 and
then at this week’s low of .9982. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

The June British pound closed up 5 points at 1.5949 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a
fresh 4.5-month high early on. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and have gained some upside momentum
this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the October and November highs of 1.6094. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5761. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5994 and then at
1.6094. First support is seen at 1.5900 and then at 1.5850.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 8 points at 79.26
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did
hit a fresh four-week low early on. The bulls have faded.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 80.19.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies at 79.50 and
then at today’s high of 79.94. First support is seen at
today’s low of 78.93 and then at 78.42. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 24/32 at 138 13/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today amid some weaker
U.S. economic data and in the aftermath of Fed Chairman
Bernanke’s comments Monday that hinted the Fed may employ
more easing of monetary policy. Bears still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 136 16/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 139 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 138 15/32 and then at
139 even. First support is seen at 138 even and then at
today’s low of 137 10/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 19.5 (32nds) at 129.21.5 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw more
short covering. Bears still have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 128.20.0. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 129.22.5 and then at
130.00.0. First support is seen at 129.16.0 and then at
129.08.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today on profit-taking pullbacks from recent solid
gains and on some weaker U.S. economic data released today.
The stock index bulls still have the solid near-term
technical advantage and the path of least resistance for
prices remains sideways to higher amid no early warning
signals that market tops are close at hand.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 0.25 at
2,776.75. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh 11-year high. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,700.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
2,789.50 and then at 2,800.00. First support is seen at
2,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,729.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 8.60 at 1,406.50.
Prices closed near the session low today after hitting
another fresh 3.5-year high early on. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1,425.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at 1,350.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,419.60 and then at 1,425.00. First support is
seen at 1,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,392.70.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed down 76 points at 13,124 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 12,698. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,185 and
then at the March high of 13,220. First support is seen at
this week’s low of 13,100 and then at 13,000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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