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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 1

May 02, 2012

Tuesday Evening, May 1-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.62 at $113.52
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
overall cash cattle market fundamentals still favor the
bears. Cattle bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no early
technical clues that a market low is close at hand. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $116.00.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $111.55. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $114.35 and then at $115.00. First
support is seen at $113.00 and then at this week’s low of
$112.37. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May feeder cattle closed up $0.35 at $150.17 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today on short covering in a bear
market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at $152.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$147.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$150.70 and then at $151.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $149.60 and then at $149.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5

June lean hogs closed down $0.07 at $85.85 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh
contract low today. Hog bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep nine-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues that a market low is close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$89.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$85.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $86.55
and then at $87.00. First support is seen at today’s
contract low of $85.67 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 5 1/4 cents at
$6.29 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on a
corrective pullback from recent solid gains. It’s likely a
near-term low is in place for the corn market but the bulls
have more work to do in the near term to suggest an uptrend
can be sustained. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.15. First resistance for July
corn is seen at this week’s high of $6.34 3/4 and then at
$6.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.25 1/4
and then at this week’s low of $6.20 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

July soybeans closed down 2 cents at $15.03 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
mild profit taking. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage amid no early clues of a market top
being close at hand. Bean prices are in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $15.50 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $14.60. First resistance is seen
at Monday’s contract high of $15.07 and then at $15.15.
First support is seen at today’s low of $14.92 and then at
this week’s low of $14.82. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

July soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $434.20 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw mild profit
taking. Meal bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $450.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $415.00. First
resistance comes in at Monday’s contract high of $436.50
and then at $440.00. First support is seen at today’s low
of $431.40 and then at this week’s low of $425.80.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

July bean oil closed down 14 points at 54.91 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
four-week low. Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 56.36 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 55.25 cents and then
at 55.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
54.61 cents and then at 54.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 11 1/2 cents at $6.43
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a
downside correction from recent gains. Wheat bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. My bias is that a
market low is in place. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.80 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.25. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and
then at this week’s and last week’s high of $6.55 1/2.
First support lies at $6.40 and then at $6.35. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed down 5 cents at $6.57 today.
Prices closed near the session high. The bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.75. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the April low of $6.33
1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.65
1/2 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at $6.50 and
then at $6.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July oats closed down 1/4 cent at $3.45 1/4 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at this week’s and the April low of
$3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.41 3/4
and then at $3.39. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $3.47 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 13 points at 20.99 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
12-month low. Sugar bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early technical clues to
suggest a market low is in place. Prices are in a six-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 22.07
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
20.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
21.14 cents and then at this week’s high of 21.45 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 20.77 cents and
then at 20.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July coffee closed up 375 points at 183.30 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Coffee prices are still in an
eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 185.70 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the April low of 173.90 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 185.70 cents and then at 187.10
cents. First support is seen at 180.00 cents and then at
today’s low of 177.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July cocoa closed up $118 at $2,337 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today in another big trading range.
Prices also hit a fresh five-week high today. Trading is
very choppy and bulls and bears are now back on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of $2,443. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $2,146. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,356 and then at
$2,275. First support is seen at $2,300 and then at $2,275.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July cotton closed up 28 points at 89.68 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short
covering in quieter trading. Cotton bears have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 93.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the April
low of 86.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 90.00 cents
and then at 91.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 89.03 cents and then at this week’s low of 87.87
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July orange juice closed down 880 points at $1.3305 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit another
fresh contract low today. FCOJ bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have fresh downside
momentum. There are no early clues of a market low being
close at hand. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at this week’s high of $1.4850.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.3000. First resistance is seen at $1.3500 and then at
$1.3800. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$1.3220 and then at $1.3100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed up $1.50 at $283.40 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $270.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the February high of $294.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $285.30 and then at last week’s high of
$287.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$280.70 and then at $277.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $2.20 an ounce at
$1,662.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did
poke to a fresh three-week high early on. The key “outside
markets” were in a neutral posture for gold today as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were also
firmer. Gold bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. However, the bulls have more work
to do in the near-term to suggest an uptrend on the chart
can be sustained. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the April high of $1,685.40. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below technical support at the April low of $1,613.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,672.30 and
then at $1,685.40. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,657.50 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

July silver futures closed down $0.011 an ounce at $31.005
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. The key
“outside markets” were in a neutral posture for silver
today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil
prices were also higher. Silver prices are still in a two-
month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver
bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $32.00 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $29.99. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of $31.445 and then at last week’s high of $31.74. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $30.79 and then at this
week’s low of $30.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 105 points 384.00 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a fresh
four-week high close. The key “outside markets” were in a
neutral posture for copper today as the U.S. dollar index
was firmer and crude oil prices were also higher. Copper
bulls still have some upside technical momentum and have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 395.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 370.00
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
386.15 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 381.20 cents and then at this week’s
low of 379.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed up $1.30 a barrel at
$106.17 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and
hit a fresh five-week high today. Bulls gained fresh upside
near-term technical momentum today. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$110.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the April low of
$101.22. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$106.43 and then at $107.00. First support is seen at
$105.50 and then at 105.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

June heating oil closed down 33 points at $3.1805 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the April high of $3.2666. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.1250. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.1942 and then at last week’s
high of $3.2101. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.1625 and then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 234 points at
$3.1012 today. Prices closed near mid-range and closed at a
fresh 2.5-month low today. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. However, a six-week-old
downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.0500. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.1234 and then at $3.1500. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $3.0744 and then at
$3.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June natural gas closed up 7.9 cents at $2.364 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a
fresh five-week high. The bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have
gained some momentum to suggest a market low is close at
hand or in place. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the contract low of $1.982. First
resistance is seen at $2.40 and then at $2.45. First
support is seen at $2.30 and then at $2.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed 1 point at 1.3241 today. Prices closed near mid-
range today and did hit a fresh four-week high early on.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field as a bearish descending triangle pattern has formed
on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the March high of 1.3391. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at the April low
of 1.3000. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s
high of 1.3287 and then at 1.3325. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.3207 and then at 1.3160. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 62 points at 1.2474
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today but did
hit a fresh nine-week high early on. Bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.2700. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2233.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2561 and then
at 1.2600. First support is seen at this week’s low of
1.2445 and then at 1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 7 points at 1.1020 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh four-week
high early on today. The bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the April high of 1.1119. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the April low of 1.0817.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1065 and then
at 1.1119. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0995
and then at 1.0950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The June Australian dollar closed down 81 points at 1.0287
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s
high of 1.0422. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the April low of 1.0150. First resistance is
seen at 1.0350 and then at today’s high of 1.0391. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0255 and then at
1.0182. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 22 points at 1.0139
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at 1.0250. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1.0160 and then at last week’s
high of 1.0192 and then at 1.0200. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0092 and then at 1.0059. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed down 11 points at 1.6218
today. Prices closed near mid-range on profit taking after
hitting an eight-month high on Monday. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6400. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.6000. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.6244 and then at this week’s high
of 1.6298. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.6182
and then at 1.6149. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 8 points at 78.93
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did
hit another fresh two-month low early on. Bears still have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the April high of 80.38. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies at 79.33 and
then at 79.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
78.66 and then at 78.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 23/32 at 142 5/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Profirt
taking was featured. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 141 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 144 even. First
resistance is seen at 142 16/32 and then at 143 even. First
support is seen at today’s low of 142 1/32 and then at 141
22/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 10.0 (32nds) at 131.31.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Profit taking was featured. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 133.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 131.06.0. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 132.13.0 and then at the contract high of 132.17.0.
First support is seen at today’s low of 131.29.5 and then
at 131.19.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today. The stock index bulls maintain the overall
near-term technical advantage. Traders are now awaiting
Friday morning’s key U.S. jobs report.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 0.50 at 2,719.50.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 2,575.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,753.00 and then at
2,775.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at
2,675.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 7.10 at 1,400.70.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh four-week high
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the March high of
1,419.60. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
April low of 1,352.50. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1,411.50 and then at 1,419.60. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1,391.70 and then at 1,371.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed up 70 points at 13,225 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-year
high today. The next upside price objective for the bulls
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
13,500. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 12,790. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s
high of 13,280 and then at 13,300. First support is seen at
today’s low of 13,135 and then at 13,070. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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