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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 15

May 16, 2012

Tuesday Evening, May 15-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.27 at $116.42
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets”
were again bearish for the cattle market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. A
three-week-old uptrend from the April low is still in
place, but just barely. Cattle bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $117.70. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $114.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $116.72 and
then at last week’s high of $116.97 and then at $117.70.
First support is seen at $116.00 and then at $115.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

August feeder cattle closed up $0.47 at $157.67 today.
Prices closed near the session high again today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $159.75. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $155.00. First resistance is seen at $158.10 and
then at $158.90. First support is seen at today’s low of
$156.85 and then at this week’s low of $156.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

June lean hogs closed up $1.02 at $86.40 today. Prices
closed near mid-range and hit a fresh two-week high today.
Short covering in a bear market was featured. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for hogs today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower.
Yet, hogs posted decent gains, which does suggest a market
low is in place. However, hog bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $87.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $84.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $86.87 and then at
$87.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $86.00 and
then at $85.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 14 1/2 cents at
$5.97 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session high today
on short covering in a bear market. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for corn again today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower.
Yet, corn posted solid gains, which is one early clue that
a market low is in place. However, the bulls have more work
to do so suggest prices can sustain an uptrend. Serious
near-term technical damage has been inflicted recently.
It’s still going to take a serious weather market scare
this summer to jump-start any serious price rally in the
corn market. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above psychological
resistance at $6.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance for July
corn is seen at today’s high of $5.97 3/4 and then at
$6.00. First support is seen at $5.91 1/4 and then at
$5.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July soybeans closed up 26 cents at $14.13 a bushel today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for soybeans today as the U.S. dollar index
was higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Yet,
soybeans did rally sharply which is one early clue that the
market has put in a near-term low. Bean bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $14.40 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$13.76. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.15
3/4 and then at $14.25. First support is seen at $14.00 and
then at $13.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

July soybean meal closed up $13.00 at $416.50 today. Prices
closed near the session high today. Meal bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and regained some
upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $425.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$398.40. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$417.70 and then at $420.00. First support is seen at
$412.50 and then at $410.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

July bean oil closed up 9 points at 51.39 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market after hitting a fresh four-month
low early on today. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for bean oil again today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Bean oil bears
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bean
oil prices have been trending lower for five weeks. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 53.25 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.74 cents and then
at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
50.87 cents and then at 50.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 8 3/4 cents at $6.07
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.25 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $5.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.17 1/4 and then at $6.25. First support
lies at $6.00 and then at the contract low of $5.92 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 13 cents at $6.27 1/2 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a 23-month
low. The bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.40. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $6.33 and then at $6.40. First support
is seen at today’s low of $6.21 1/4 and then at $6.17.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

July oats closed up 1 3/4 cents at $3.30 1/4 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw short covering. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
April low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last $3.40. First support lies at
today’s low of $3.27 and then at this week’s low of $3.26.
First resistance is seen at $3.32 1/4 and then at $3.35.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed up 12 points at 20.39 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a
12-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
sugar again today as the U.S. dollar index was higher,
while crude oil prices were lower. Sugar bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are
no early technical clues to suggest a market low is in
place. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 21.17 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 20.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 20.50 cents and then at today’s high
of 20.69 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
20.30 cents and then at this week’s low of 20.07 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July coffee closed down 75 points at 177.20 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for coffee again today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower.
Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of 185.40 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 170.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 180.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 181.60 cents. First support is seen
at 175.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 173.90
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

July cocoa closed down $2 at $2,259 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for cocoa again today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Cocoa bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of
$2,363. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,146. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $2,282 and then at $2,300. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2,234 and then at this week’s low of
$2,220. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July cotton closed up 34 points at 79.16 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Prices on Friday hit a
fresh 1.5-year low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for cotton again today as the U.S. dollar index was higher,
while crude oil prices were sharply lower. The cotton bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are no
early clues of a market low being close at hand. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 82.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00
cents and then at today’s high of 81.65 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 78.50 cents and then at
this week’s low of 77.85 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0

July orange juice closed down 330 points at $1.1330 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
contract low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
FCOJ today as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude
oil prices were lower. FCOJ bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are still no early
clues of a market low being close at hand. Prices are in a
3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.3000. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at $1.1500 and
then at today’s high of $1.1900. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $1.1175 and then at $1.1000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed up $0.20 at $285.30 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$275.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $288.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $287.00 and then at $288.00.
First support is seen at $284.00 and then at today’s low of
$282.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $4.20 an ounce at
$1,556.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh 4.5-month low. The key “outside markets” were
again in a bearish posture for gold today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was lower.
Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently.
Gold bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. A
2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above psychological resistance at
$1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below technical support at the December
low of $1,528.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $1,564.40 and then at $1,575.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $1,546.80 and then at $1,540.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July silver futures closed down $0.373 an ounce at $27.98
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 4.5-month low. The key “outside markets” were
in a bearish posture for silver again today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was lower.
Silver prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The silver bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above psychological resistance
at $30.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the December low of $26.50. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.43 and then at
this week’s high of $29.00. Next support is seen today’s
low of at $27.90 and then at $27.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 385 points 351.55 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh four-month low. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for copper again today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and the crude oil market was lower. Copper
bears have the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 371.35 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 355.00 cents and then at
357.75 cents. First support is seen at 350.00 cents and
then at 347.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $1.70 a barrel at
$93.08 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
hit a fresh 6.5-month low. The bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and gained still more power
today. A stronger U.S. dollar index today was bearish for
the crude market. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $90.00. First resistance is seen at
$94.00 and then at $95.00. First support is seen at $93.00
and then at $92.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

June heating oil closed down 56 points at $2.9240 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh 4.5-
month low today. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Prices this week have seen a breakout from
a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0250. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.8000. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $2.9434 and then at this week’s
high of $2.9636. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.9129 and then at $2.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 190 points at
$2.9400 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
closed at another fresh 3.5-month low close. Bears have the
near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old downtrend
is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.0500. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.8500. First resistance is seen at $2.9500 and
then at today’s high of $2.9766. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.9233 and then at last week’s low of
$2.9102. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

June natural gas closed up 7.0 cents at $2.501 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering. The bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The bears do still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, however. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $2.25. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of $2.531 and then
at $2.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.387
and then at $2.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 118 points at 1.2729 today. Prices closed near
the session low today and hit another fresh four-month low.
Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.3000. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at the
January low of 1.2645. First resistance for the Euro lies
at 1.2800 and then at today’s high of 1.2871. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.2723 and then at 1.2700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 62 points at 1.2463
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a gentle two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.2700. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.2233. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of 1.2553 and then at last week’s high
of 1.2595. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2451
and then at 1.2409. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 94 points at 1.0603 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh four-month low. The bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage in the Swissy. Prices are in a 2.5-
month-old downtrend. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0800. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of 1.0489. First
resistance is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0596 and then at
1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 37 points at .9896
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today hit
another fresh 4.5-month low. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage and have gained more downside momentum
this week. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0200. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
.9800. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.0001 and then at 1.0046. Next support is seen at today’s
low of .9887 and then at .9800. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 33 points at .9930
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh four-month low close. Bulls are fading
and are on a level near-term technical playing field with
the bears. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0100. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at .9900.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0002 and then
at 1.0038. First support is seen at last week’s low of
.9910 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June British pound closed down 109 points at 1.5992
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
three-week low today. Bulls have the slight overall near-
term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show
fresh power soon. Prices are still in a four-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6200.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the April low of
1.5797. First resistance is seen at 1.6047 and then at
today’s high of 1.6111. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.5986 and then at 1.5950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 66 points at 81.41
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh four-month high. More safe-haven buying of the
greenback was seen today. Bulls have gained solid upside
near-term technical momentum and have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the January high of 82.28. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 80.00. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 81.34 and then at 81.75.
First support is seen at 81.00 and then at today’s low of
80.63. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 19/32 at 146 22/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh contract high on more safe-haven investment demand.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. There are no early technical clues to suggest a
market top is close at hand. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 143
18/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148
even. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
146 22/32 and then at 147 even. First support is seen at
146 even and then at today’s low of 145 24/32. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 1.0 (32nds) at 133.14.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a
fresh contract high close. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 134.00.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 132.17.5.
First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of
133.19.5 and then at 134.00.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 133.06.5 and then at 132.28.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower again today. The European Union debt crisis has
intensified, as reports surfaced this afternoon that
investors were withdrawing their money out of Greek banks.
The EU debt crisis has created keen trader/investor
uncertainty in the market place, which is bearish for the
U.S. stock indexes. This week looks to be an extra
important trading week for many markets.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 3.25 at
2,581.75. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit
another fresh three-month low today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 2,500.00. First resistance is seen at 2,600.00
and then at today’s high of 2,616.24. First support is seen
at today’s low of 2,574.50 and then at 2,550.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 5.10 at 1,329.00.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
3.5-month low. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the March high
of 1,419.60. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at
1,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,346.30 and then at 1,363.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,325.70 and then at 1,315.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 40 points at 12,615 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh 3.5-month low. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the May high of 13,280. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,722 and then at 12,750. First
support is seen at today’s low of 12,605 and then at
12,550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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