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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 2

May 03, 2012

Wednesday Evening, May 2-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.65 at $112.87
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. It was a
“risk off” trading day today and the key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for cattle as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. The
overall cash cattle market fundamentals still favor the
bears. Cattle bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no early
technical clues that a market low is close at hand. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $116.00.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the contract low of $111.55. First resistance is
seen at $113.50 and then at $114.00. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $112.37 and then at $112.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May feeder cattle closed down $0.22 at $149.95 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at $152.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $147.70. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $150.70 and then at $151.00. First support
is seen at $149.60 and then at $149.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

June lean hogs closed down $1.45 at $84.40 today. Prices
closed near the session low and hit another fresh contract
low today. Hog bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues that a market low is close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is
to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$87.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$82.50. First resistance is seen at $85.00 and then at
$85.50. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
$84.30 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 18 1/2 cents at
$6.10 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today
as bulls faded. It was a “risk off” trading day today and
the key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
corn as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were lower. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $6.34 3/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00.
First resistance for July corn is seen at $6.15 and then at
$6.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.10 and
then at the March low of $6.02 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

July soybeans closed down 22 1/4 cents at $14.81 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session low today
after scoring a fresh contract high and four-year high
early on today. It was a “risk off” trading day today and
the key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for
beans as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were lower. Soybean prices also scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. If there
is follow-through selling pressure on Thursday, then a more
significantly bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar
chart would be confirmed. That would be an early technical
clue that a near-term market top is in place. But right now
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bean prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at today’s
contract high of $15.12 1/2 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $14.60.
First resistance is seen at $15.00 and then at $15.12 1/2.
First support is seen at today’s low of $14.81 and then at
$14.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

July soybean meal closed down $5.30 at $428.90 today.
Prices closed near the session low today after scoring a
fresh contract high and four-year high early on today. Meal
prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the
daily bar chart today. If there is follow-through selling
pressure on Thursday, then a more significantly bearish
“key reversal” down on the daily bar chart would be
confirmed. That would be an early technical clue that a
near-term market top is in place. But right now meal bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $440.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $415.00. First resistance comes
in at last week’s high of $431.90 and then at $435.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $428.30 and then at
this week’s low of $425.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

July bean oil closed down 26 points at 54.65 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a
fresh four-week low close. It was a “risk off” trading day
today and the key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for bean oil as the U.S. dollar index was higher
and crude oil prices were lower. Bean oil bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field, but the
bulls are fading. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 56.36
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 55.00 cents and then at 55.28 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 54.61 cents and then at 54.40
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 30 1/4 cents at $6.12
3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
closed at a fresh 2.5-year low close. It was a “risk off”
trading day today and the key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for wheat as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Wheat bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained
more downside power today. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.50 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.20 and
then at $6.25. First support lies at the April low of $6.09
1/4 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed down 26 cents at $6.31 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
22-month low. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more power today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $6.65 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.40 and then at
$6.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.29 and
then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July oats closed down 8 1/2 cents at $3.36 3/4 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage but did
fade today. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the April low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at
this week’s low of $3.35 and then at $3.32. First
resistance is seen at $3.40 and then at $3.43. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 42 points at 20.53 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit
another fresh 12-month low. It was a “risk off” trading day
today and the key “outside markets” were in a bearish
posture for sugar as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were lower. Sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
technical clues to suggest a market low is in place. Prices
are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 21.45 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 20.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 20.77 cents and then at 21.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 20.50 cents and then at 20.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July coffee closed down 245 points at 181.70 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. It was a “risk off”
trading day today and the key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for coffee as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Coffee prices are
still in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 185.70 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the April low of 173.90 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at 184.00 cents and then at
185.70 cents. First support is seen at 180.00 cents and
then at 177.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July cocoa closed up $12 at $2,331 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today in quieter trading. Trading has been
very choppy and cocoa bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of $2,443. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $2,146. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,356 and then
at $2,275. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,313
and then at $2,300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July cotton closed down 17 points at 89.51 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. It was a “risk off”
trading day today and the key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for cotton as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Cotton bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 93.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the April low of 86.55 cents. First resistance is seen at
90.00 cents and then at 91.00 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 88.85 cents and then at this week’s low
of 87.87 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July orange juice closed down 145 points at $1.3140 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
contract low. It was a “risk off” trading day today and the
key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for FCOJ as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
lower. FCOJ bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early clues of a market
low being close at hand. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at this week’s
high of $1.4850. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.2800. First resistance is
seen at $1.3500 and then at $1.3800. First support is seen
at today’s contract low of $1.2965 and then at $1.2900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed up $1.10 at $284.50 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$270.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $294.00. First
resistance is seen at $285.30 and then at last week’s high
of $287.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$280.70 and then at $277.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $8.90 an ounce at
$1,653.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. It was
a “risk off” trading day today and the key “outside
markets” were in a bearish posture for gold as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower.
Gold bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the April high of $1,685.40. Bears' next
near-term downside price objective is closing prices below
technical support at the April low of $1,613.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,663.90 and then at
this week’s high of $1,672.30. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $1,645.10 and then at $1,640.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

July silver futures closed down $0.355 an ounce at $30.575
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. It was a
“risk off” trading day today and the key “outside markets”
were in a bearish posture for silver as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. Silver
prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. The silver bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.00
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of $29.99. First resistance is seen at
$31.00 and then at this week’s high of $31.445. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $30.41 and then at
$29.99. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 600 points 378.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. It was a “risk off”
trading day today and the key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for copper as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were lower. Copper bulls still
have the slight near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 395.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
370.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and
then at 382.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 376.65 cents and then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: June crude oil closed down $0.94 a barrel at
$105.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
It was a “risk off” trading day today and as the U.S.
dollar index was higher—both bearish for crude. Also, the
weekly DOE stocks report was deemed bearish for liquid
energies today. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $110.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the April low of $101.22. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $106.05 and then at this week’s
high of $106.43. First support is seen at today’s low of
$104.91 and then at 104.39. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

June heating oil closed down 338 points at $3.1433 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.2101.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $3.1250. First
resistance lies at $3.1625 and then at today’s high of
$3.1850. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1321
and then at $3.1250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

June (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 184 points at
$3.0787 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh
nearly three-month low today. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. However, a six-
week-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.1500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $3.0000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.1094 and then at
$3.1250. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0600
and then at $3.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

June natural gas closed down 10.8 cents at $2.263 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a
corrective pullback from recent gains. The bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls
have some momentum to still suggest a market low is close
at hand or in place. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of $1.982.
First resistance is seen at $2.30 and then at this week’s
high of $2.385. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.236 and then at $2.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 72 points at 1.3159 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field as a bearish descending
triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of 1.3391. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at the April low of 1.3000. First resistance for
the Euro lies at 1.3200 and then at today’s high of 1.3245.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.3124 and then at
1.3100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 12 points at 1.2484 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.2700. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2233. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
1.2561 and then at 1.2600. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2409 and then at 1.2350. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 59 points at 1.0956 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls and
bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the April
high of 1.1119. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the April low of 1.0817. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.1026 and then at this week’s high
of 1.1065. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0923
and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The June Australian dollar closed down 6 points at 1.0280
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of
1.0422. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at the
April low of 1.0150. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0306 and then at 1.0350. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0235 and then at 1.0182. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 14 points at 1.0126
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at 1.0250. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of 1.0142 and then at 1.0160. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0085 and then at
1.0059. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June British pound closed down 25 points at 1.6191
today. Prices closed near mid-range on more profit taking
after hitting an eight-month high on Monday. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6400.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.6000. First
resistance is seen at 1.6244 and then at this week’s high
of 1.6298. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.6157
and then at 1.6100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 27 points at 79.20
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering. Bears still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
April high of 80.38. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the February low of 78.42. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 79.40 and then at 79.75.
First support is seen at today’s low of 78.90 and then at
this week’s low of 78.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 25/32 at 142 28/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw safe-
haven demand amid a “risk off” trading day today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the
T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 141 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 144 even. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 143 6/32 and then at last week’s high of 143
18/32. First support is seen at 142 16/32 and then at 142
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 8.0 (32nds) at 132.07.0 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw safe-haven
buying interest. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 131.06.0. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.13.0 and then at
the contract high of 132.17.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 131.27.5 and then at 131.19.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. A weak ADP monthly employment report today did
limit buying interest in the stock indexes. However, the
stock index bulls maintain the overall near-term technical
advantage. Traders are now awaiting Friday morning’s key
U.S. jobs report.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 9.00 at 2,727.50.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 2,575.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,753.00 and then
at 2,775.00. First support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at
2,675.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 2.90 at 1,397.50.
Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 1,419.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the April low of 1,352.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,404.40 and
then at this week’s high of 1,411.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1,390.00 and then at 1,371.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 14 points at 13,204 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 13,500. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 12,790.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 13,240 and then at this
week’s high of 13,280. First support is seen at today’s low
of 13,140 and then at this week’s low of 13,120. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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