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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 21

May 22, 2012

Monday Evening, May 21-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $1.20 at
$120.72 today. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high early on,
following a bullish USDA cattle report on Friday, and then
promptly reversed course to close solidly lower and near
the session low on profit taking from recent gains. No
chart damage occurred today. Bulls still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend
from the April low is still in place. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $123.00. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$118.00. First resistance is seen at $121.00 and then at
$121.50. First support is seen at $120.00 and then at
$119.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

August feeder cattle closed down $1.62 at $159.07 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart after
hitting a fresh 2.5-month high early on. Profit taking was
featured and no significant chart damage occurred today.
Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of $161.40. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$156.20. First resistance is seen at $160.00 and then at
$160.50. First support is seen at $159.00 and then at
$158.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

August lean hogs closed down $1.15 at $87.75 today. Prices
closed near the session low today amid weaker pork product
prices. Hog bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage at present. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of
$84.80. First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at
today’s high of $88.60. First support is seen at $87.50 and
then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: (Note that grain futures trading is now 21 hours
a day—from 5 p.m. to 2 p.m. Chicago time, with a daily
price settlement time remaining at 1:15 p.m.) July corn
futures closed down 3 1/4 cents at $6.32 1/4 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh
six-week high early on. A corrective pullback was seen
today following recent strong gains. Bulls some upside
technical momentum on their side. Traders are beginning to
talk about the dry weather over much of the U.S. Corn Belt.
Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
today’s high of $6.44 1/2. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance for July
corn is seen at today’s high of $6.34 3/4 and then at
$6.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.28 3/4
and then at $6.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July soybeans closed up 8 3/4 cents at $14.13 1/2 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Recent strong
demand for U.S. soybeans on the world market and dry
weather in the Corn Belt are bullish for the bean market.
Bean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $14.60 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $14.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.23 and then
at $14.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $14.08
1/2 and then at $14.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

July soybean meal closed down $0.70 at $417.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Meal bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the May
high of $437.60. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $410.00. First resistance comes in at
$420.00 and then at today’s high of $422.50. First support
is seen at $415.00 and then at $412.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5

July bean oil closed up 67 points at 50.99 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
short covering. While bean oil bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, my bias is that a market low
is in place, or close to it. Bean oil prices are still in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 52.43 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.16
cents and then at 51.52 cents. First support is seen at
50.50 cents and then at today’s low of 50.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 9 cents at $7.04 1/4
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
6.5-month high. Dry and hot weather in the U.S. plains and
dry weather in wheat regions in eastern Europe are bullish
for the wheat market, as is recent better export demand for
U.S. wheat. Wheat bulls have the near-term technical
advantage and still have decent upside near-term technical
momentum. Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push
and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.25 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.80.
First resistance is seen at $7.10 and then at today’s high
of $7.22. First support lies at $6.90 and then at today’s
low of $6.82 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 10 cents at $7.15 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 2.5-
month high. Wheat bulls have gained good upside near-term
technical momentum recently and have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of $7.31 1/2. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.23 1/4 and
then at $7.31 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of
$7.03 and then at $7.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

July oats closed up 2 cents at $3.42 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today and closed at a fresh two-week high
close. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the April low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the May high of $3.50. First
support lies at $3.40 and then at today’s low of $3.38 3/4.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $3.44 and
then at $3.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 17 points at 20.30 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low. Sugar bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of
21.17 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 20.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 20.50 cents and
then at today’s high of 20.66 cents. First support is seen
at 20.25 cents and then at the May low of 20.07 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

July coffee closed down 470 points at 174.45 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and are back near the
recent lows. Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of 185.40
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
170.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 177.50
cents and then at 180.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 174.20 cents and then at the May low of
172.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed down $37 at $2,236 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Cocoa bears have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the May high of $2,363.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,146. First resistance is seen at $2,250 and then at
today’s high of $2,275. First support is seen at last
week’s low of $2,220 and then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

July cotton closed down 47 points at 77.52 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bears have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are
no early clues of a market low being close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 82.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 79.05 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
First support is seen at last week’s low of 76.26 cents and
then at 75.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July orange juice closed up 410 points at $1.0630 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market after prices Friday hit another fresh
contract low. FCOJ bears still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $.9000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.1040 and then at $1.1250. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.0175 and then at $1.0000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed down $0.80 at $287.70 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting nine-
week high early on. Bulls have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the May low of
$276.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the February high of $294.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $289.80 and then at
$292.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $286.80
and then at $284.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $2.70 an ounce at
$1,589.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw a corrective pullback from recent solid gains that
on Friday produced a bullish weekly high close. The key
“outside markets” were mildly bullish for the gold market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil
prices were firmer. That did limit the downside in gold
today. Recent upside price action does begin to suggest a
near-term market bottom is in place. However, gold bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. An
11-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above psychological resistance at
$1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $1,526.70. First resistance is seen at
$1,600.00 and then at $1,613.00. First support is seen at
$1,580.40 and then at $1,575.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

July silver futures closed down $0.44 an ounce at $28.275
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were mildly bullish for silver today, as
the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were
firmer, but silver bulls could get no traction from it.
Silver prices are still in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The silver bears still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $29.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
$26.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.855
and then at $29.00. Next support is seen $28.00 and then at
Friday’s low of $27.78. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 290 points 349.75 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw some
short covering and bargain hunting after prices Friday hit
a fresh 4.5-month low. The key “outside markets” were
mildly bullish for the copper market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer.
Copper bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 365.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the January low of 340.60 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 352.05 cents and then at 355.00 cents.
First support is seen at 345.00 cents and then at last
week’s low of 343.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: July crude oil closed up $1.14 a barrel at
$92.94 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
saw short covering in a bear market after prices hit a
fresh 6.5-month low early on. The bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $98.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $90.00. First
resistance is seen at $93.50 and then at $94.00. First
support is seen at $92.00 and then at today’s low of
$91.12. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July heating oil closed up 363 points at $2.8715 today.
Prices closed near the session high and saw short covering
in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a fresh 4.5-month low.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage
as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.8000. First
resistance lies at $2.9000 and then at $2.9250. First
support is seen at $2.8500 and then at last week’s low of
$2.8290. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 487 points at
$2.8689 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw short covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit
a 4.5-month low. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.7500.
First resistance is seen at $2.9000 and then at $2.9250.
First support is seen at $2.8500 and then at today’s low of
$2.8157. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July natural gas closed down 12.5 cents at $2.697 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a
corrective, profit-taking pullback from recent gains.
Prices Friday hit an 11-week high. The bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$2.458. First resistance is seen at $2.75 and then at
$2.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.67 and
then at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 71 points at 1.2810 today. Prices closed near
the session high today and saw short covering after prices
Friday hit a contract low. Today’s and Friday’s price
action combined has produced a bullish “key reversal” up on
the daily bar chart that is one early technical clue that a
near-term market bottom is in place. However, the bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at Friday’s contract low of 1.2644.
First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of
1.2814 and then at 1.2850. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2726 and then at 1.2683. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 34 points at 1.2616
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. Profit taking was featured. Prices Friday hit a
three-month high. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.2750. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 1.2416. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of 1.2663 and then at 1.2700. First support is seen at
1.2587 and then at 1.2550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The June Swiss franc closed up 55 points at 1.0664 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a four-month
low. The bears still have the solid near-term technical
advantage in the Swissy. Prices are in an 11-week-old
downtrend. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.0800.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the January
low of 1.0489. First resistance is seen at 1.0700 and then
at 1.0750. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0598
and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 94 points at .9881
today. Prices closed near the session high and saw short
covering in a bar market after prices Friday hit a five-
month low. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0150. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
.9700. First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at .9950.
Next support is seen at .9800 and then at last week’s low
of .9766. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 41 points at .9825
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering after prices hit a fresh 4.5-month low early
on. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at .9950. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of .9570. First
resistance is seen at .9856 and then at .9890. First
support is seen at .9800 and then at today’s low of .9752.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June British pound closed up 33 points at 1.5834 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering after prices hit a nine-week low on Friday. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at the March low of 1.5591. First
resistance is seen at 1.5900 and then at 1.5931. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.5777 and then at last
week’s low of 1.5730. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 37 points at 81.05
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
profit taking from recent gains that saw the index hit a
four-month high on Friday. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of 82.28. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 80.00.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 81.56 and then at
last week’s high of 81.93. First support is seen at 81.00
and then at 80.58. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 18/32 at 147 24/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit taking
after prices last week hit a contract high on safe-haven
investment demand. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early
technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.
The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
145 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
150 even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 148
7/32 and then at the contract high of 148 23/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 147 10/32 and then at 147
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 7.5 (32nds) at 133.18.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw profit taking
after hitting a contract high last week. Bulls still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 134.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 132.17.5. First resistance is seen at today’s
contract high of 133.24.0 and then at the contract high of
133.27.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 133.11.5
and then at 133.05.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today on short covering following recent selling
pressure that has driven the indexes to multi-month lows. My
bias is that the bulls still have some heavy lifting to do
in the near term.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 75.25 at 2,543.50.
Prices closed near the session high after hitting a fresh
4.5-month low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,400.00. First resistance is seen at
2,550.00 and then at 2,575.00. First support is seen at
2,525.00 and then at 2,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 24.90 at 1,315.70.
Prices closed near the session high today after hitting
another fresh four-month low early on. Prices also scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1,380.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,250.00. First resistance is
seen at 1,330.30 and then at 1,340.00. First support is
seen at 1,300.00 and then at today’s low of 1,287.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 155 points at 12,490 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering. Prices Friday hit a fresh four-month low. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 13,000. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,000. First resistance
in the Dow lies at 12,500 and then at 12,550. First support
is seen at 12,450 and then at 12,400. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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