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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 24

May 25, 2012

Thursday Evening, May 24-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed up $0.25 at $119.75
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
tepid short covering. Bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $122.40. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$117.40. First resistance is seen at $120.17 and then at
$120.67. First support is seen at today’s low of $119.00
and then at $118.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

August feeder cattle closed up $0.37 at $158.85 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $161.40. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $156.20. First resistance is seen at $159.00
and then at $159.40. First support is seen at this week’s
low of $158.27 and then at $158.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0

August lean hogs closed up $0.15 at $86.10 today. Prices
closed near the session low today on tepid short covering
in a bear market. Hog bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage at present. The next upside
price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and
close prices above solid chart resistance at $88.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of $84.80. First resistance is seen at $86.65
and then at $87.00. First support is seen at $85.50 and
then at this week’s low of $85.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed down 24 cents at $5.79
1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
are right back down near the May low, which is a 14-month
low. Some better rainfall chances in the Corn Belt and
disappointing weekly export sales data pressured corn
today. Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more downside power today.
Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above psychological resistance at $6.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the May low of $5.72 1/4. First resistance for July corn is
seen at $5.85 and then at $5.91 3/4. First support is seen
at today’s low of $5.76 3/4 and then at $5.72 1/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July soybeans closed up 15 1/4 cents at $13.77 3/4 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and saw
some short covering and bargain hunting after prices hit a
two-month low Wednesday. Soybean prices are still in a
three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart as the
bulls have faded. Bean bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $14.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $13.40. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $13.87 3/4 and then at $14.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $13.67 1/2 and then at
this week’s low of $13.51. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

July soybean meal closed up $5.20 at $411.00 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw some short covering and
bargain hunting. Meal bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $422.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$387.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$414.30 and then at $417.50. First support is seen at
$410.00 and then at $408.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

July bean oil closed up 47 points at 49.38 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Prices hit a fresh contract low
Wednesday. Bean oil bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bean oil prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of 51.28 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 49.70
cents and then at 50.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 48.92 cents and then at the contract low of
48.55 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 1 1/4 cents at $6.64 1/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today as
bulls have faded. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $6.76 1/2 and then at $6.85. First support lies at
today’s low of $6.61 3/4 and then at $6.55 1/2. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed up 1/2 cent at $6.87 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls are
fading. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $7.23 1/4. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.95 1/2 and
then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.80 and then at
$6.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July oats closed down the 20-cent limit at $3.05 today.
Prices hit a fresh nine-week low as serious near-term chart
damage was inflicted. I did not see any wire reports, but I
suspect more favorable growing weather in the northern U.S.
helped pressure oats today. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below major
psychological support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at today’s high of $3.25. First
support lies at $3.00 and then at $2.95. First resistance
is seen at $3.10 and then at $3.15. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed steady at 19.51 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Sugar
prices this week have seen a bearish downside “breakout”
from a recent trading range. Sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
20.93 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 19.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
19.76 cents and then at 20.00 cents. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 19.36 cents and then at 19.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July coffee closed down 135 points at 165.55 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh 21-
month low close today. Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart and have seen a
bearish downside “breakout” from the sideways trading range
at lower levels. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 182.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 160.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 170.00 cents and then at 173.50
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 165.10
cents and then at 162.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0

July cocoa closed down $10 at $2,114 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit a fresh six-week low. Cocoa
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $2,250. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the April low of $2,056. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,128 and then at
$2,150. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,094 and
then at $2,075. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July cotton closed up 243 points at 73.94 cents today.
Short covering in a bear market was featured today. Prices
Wednesday hit a 21-month low. The cotton bears still have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are
no early clues of a market low being close at hand. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 78.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 71.87 cents and then at this week’s
low of 70.53 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July orange juice closed up 580 points at $1.0890 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short
covering in a bear market. FCOJ bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $.9000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $1.1180 and then at $1.1500. First support is seen at
$1.0500 and then at today’s low of $1.0300. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

July lumber futures closed up $1.50 at $287.90 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the May low of $276.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the February high of $294.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $288.10 and
then at this week’s high of $289.80. First support is seen
at today’s low of $285.00 and then at this week’s low of
$283.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed up $7.50 an ounce at
$1,556.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today. Much of the early gains were erased at the U.S.
dollar index rallied during the trading session. Short
covering and some bargain hunting were seen today. Gold
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
An 11-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above psychological resistance at
$1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the May
low of $1,526.70. First resistance is seen at $1,568.50 and
then at today’s high of $1,577.70. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,551.90 and then at $1,540.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July silver futures closed up $0.606 an ounce at $28.13
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering
in a bear market was featured. Silver prices are in an 11-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver bears
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$29.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of $26.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $28.515 and then at this week’s
high of $28.855. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$27.585 and then at this week’s low of $27.08. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 255 points 342.15 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. A firmer U.S. dollar limited the upside
in copper today. Copper bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 357.75 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
327.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
345.15 cents and then at 347.75 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 340.45 cents and then at this week’s
low of 338.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: July crude oil closed up $0.82 a barrel at
$90.72 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
short covering in bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a 6.5-
month low. The crude bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$96.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $87.00. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $91.52 and then at $92.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $89.81 and then at this
week’s low of $89.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July heating oil closed up 108 points at $2.8263 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-
month low. Short covering was featured. Bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices
are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.9500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.7500. First resistance
lies at $2.8500 and then at $2.8655. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2.8048 and then at $2.7800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 157 points at
$2.8176 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and did hit another fresh 4.5-month low early on. Bears
still have the near-term technical advantage. A two-month-
old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.9700. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.7500. First resistance is seen at
$2.8500 and then at today’s high of $2.8654. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.7836 and then at $2.7750.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July natural gas closed down 9.1 cents at $2.706 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on a corrective
pullback from recent gains that saw prices last Friday hit
an 11-week high. The bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $2.458.
First resistance is seen at $2.80 and then at last week’s
high of $2.838. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$2.652 and then at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 49 points at 1.2527 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low again today and hit a fresh 22-month low.
The bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Euro prices are in a three-month-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2826.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2400. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2600 and then at 1.2644.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2516 and then at
1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

The June Japanese yen closed down 18 points at 1.2571
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 1.2663. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 1.2416. First resistance is seen at 1.2627 and then
at 1.2663. First support is seen at 1.2500 and then at this
week’s low of 1.2476. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 41 points at 1.0431 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
nearly two-year low. The bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage in the Swissy. Prices are in a two-
month-old downtrend. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at this week’s high of 1.0678. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0400. First resistance
is seen at 1.0500 and then at 1.0567. First support is seen
at today’s low of 1.0425 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

The June Australian dollar closed steady at .9708 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices
Wednesday hit a six-month low. Bears have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at 1.0000. The next downside breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at .9500. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of .9793 and then at .9850. Next support is seen at this
week’s low of .9666 and then at .9600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 27 points at .9721
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh 4.5-month low close. Bears have the near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
.9900. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the December low of .9570. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of .9772 and then at .9800. First support is
seen at this week’s low of .9705 and then at .9650.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June British pound closed down 38 points at 1.5649
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh nine-week low. Bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.5950. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at the March low of 1.5591. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5725 and then at 1.5770. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.5637 and then at
1.5591. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 23 points at 82.47
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more safe haven buying. The index hit a fresh 21-month high
today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at 81.00.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 82.53 and then at
82.75. First support is seen at 82.00 and then at 81.71.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 27/32 at 147 14/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw profit
taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues
to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 145 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 150 even. First
resistance is seen at 148 even and then at today’s high of
148 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 147 5/32
and then at this week’s low of 146 22/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 9.5 (32nds) at 133.16.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
profit taking. Prices Wednesday hit a fresh contract high.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
135.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 132.17.5. First resistance is
seen at today’s contract high of 133.28.5 and then at
134.00.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 133.12.0
and then at this week’s low of 133.04.0. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed again today. It was another “risk-off” leaning day in
the market place today and that was bearish for the stock
market.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 4.25 at
2,536.25. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,400.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 2,561.50 and then at 2,575.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,510.25 and then at
2,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 6.90 at 1,322.60.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,380.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,250.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,326.50 and then at 1,340.00. First support
is seen at 1,300.00 and then at this week’s low of
1,287.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 70 points at 12,536 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,000. First resistance in the Dow
lies at this week’s high of 12,550 and then at 12,600.
First support is seen at 12,500 and then at 12,450.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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