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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Nov. 1

Nov 02, 2012

Thursday Evening, November 1-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.60 at
$125.32 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
A firmer U.S. dollar index helped to pressure cattle today.
Cattle bears have the overall near-term technical advantage
and gained some fresh downside momentum today. However,
it’s still my bias is that a near-term market low is in
place. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $127.00. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $123.95. First
resistance is seen at $126.00 and then at today’s high of
$126.60. First support is seen at $125.00 and then at this
week’s low of $124.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

January feeder cattle closed down $2.35 at $146.35 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Feeder bulls faded
today. Bears have regained the near-term technical
advantage. Prices have been trading choppy and sideways for
the past two months. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $149.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $145.95. First resistance is seen at $147.00
and then at $147.50. First support is seen at this week’s
low of $145.95 and then at $145.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.40 at $77.87 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The
firmer U.S. dollar index helped to pressure hogs today. Hog
market bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has turned choppy. The next
upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to
push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the
October high of $79.77. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $76.55. First resistance is seen at
$78.50 and then at $78.75. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $77.55 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 1 1/2 cents at
7.54 1/4 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low. A firmer U.S. dollar index limited buying
interest in the corn market today. Prices are still in a
choppy and sideways trading range and the bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside
price objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $7.76. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $7.05. First resistance for December corn
is seen at today’s high of $7.63 1/4 and then at $7.69.
First support is seen at $7.50 and then at $7.41 3/4.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

January soybeans were up 14 1/4 cents at $15.63 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range on more
short covering and bargain hunting. Rumors of Chinese
demand have helped to boost beans this week. Soybean bulls
have regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $15.77 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at this week’s low of $15.26 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $15.71 1/2 and then at $15.77.
First support is seen at today’s low of $15.48 and then at
$15.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December soybean meal was up $3.90 at $486.10 in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range and hit another
fresh four-week high. Meal bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $500.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$471.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$490.00 and then at $491.60. First support is seen at
today’s low of $482.30 and then at $480.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

December bean oil was up 29 points at 50.45 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw more
short covering. Bean oil bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 52.50
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the October low of 49.41 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.91 cents and
then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 50.10 cents and then at this week’s low of 49.84 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 3 cents at $8.67 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. The
firmer U.S. dollar index limited gains in the wheat market
today. Wheat bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of $8.40 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $8.77 1/2 and then at $8.85.
First support lies at $8.58 1/4 and then at $8.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 2 1/2 cents at $9.06 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. The
HRW bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the October high of $9.29 3/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $8.72 1/2.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.16 1/2 and
then at $9.25. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$8.95 and then at $8.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December oats were down 6 1/2 cents at $3.82 1/2 today in
late trading. Prices were nearer the session low and hit a
fresh three-week low today. Oats bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but did fade today.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.75.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.95.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.80 1/4 and then at
$3.77 1/2 and then at $3.75. First resistance is seen at
$3.85 and then at $3.88. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 2 points at 19.44 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high. A firmer U.S.
dollar index helped weigh on sugar today. Prices Wednesday
hit an 8.5-month low. Sugar bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 20.50 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 18.50
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
19.68 cents and then at 19.95 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 19.27 cents and then at this week’s low
of 19.18 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December coffee closed up 5 points at 154.70 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range and hit another fresh four-month low
today. A firmer U.S. dollar index limited gains in coffee
today. Coffee bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 165.70 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 150.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 156.40 cents
and then at 158.85 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 152.80 cents and then at 151.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

December cocoa closed up $34 at $2,422 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today on short covering and bargain
hunting. Cocoa bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field amid choppy trading. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the October high of $2,526. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
$2,338. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2,457 and then at $2,475. First support is seen at $2,400
and then at today’s low of $2,377. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

December cotton closed up 14 points at 70.21 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
three-month low early on. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Price action this week has seen a
downside “breakout” from a bearish pennant pattern that had
formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 73.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the October low of 67.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
71.00 cents and then at 71.86 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 69.80 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

January orange juice closed up 50 points at $1.0700 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. Bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.1200. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.0250. First resistance is seen at $1.0930 and then at
$1.1000. First support is seen at today’s low of $1.0555
and then at this week’s low of $1.0445. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

January lumber futures closed down $2.60 at $328.60 today.
Prices hit a fresh contract high early on today and then
backed off on some profit taking from recent solid gains.
Ideas the major storm on the U.S. east coast will produce
strong lumber demand is bullish. Bulls still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $318.00. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $340.00. First resistance is seen
at $330.00 and then at today’s contract high of $335.00.
First support is seen at $327.50 and then at $325.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $3.00 an ounce
at $1,716.10 today. Prices closed near the session low
today and saw position evening ahead of Friday’s jobs
report. The firmer U.S. dollar index today also weighed on
gold. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage but need to show fresh power to begin
to establish a near-term price uptrend. The gold bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$1,731.20. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below psychological support at
$1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,727.50 and then at $1,731.20. First support is seen at
Wednesday’s low of $1,709.80 and then at $1,700.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5

December silver futures closed down $0.051 an ounce at
$32.26 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The firmer U.S. dollar index today did limit gains in
silver. The silver bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.50
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the October low of $31.535. First resistance is seen at
$32.50 and then at today’s high of $32.695. Next support is
seen at $32.00 and then at $31.755. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 340 points at 355.15 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Copper bears still
have the near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 365.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 356.90 cents and then
at 360.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
351.20 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $0.69 a barrel at
$86.93 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $82.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $87.42 and then at $88.00. First support is
seen at $86.00 and then at this week’s low of $84.66 and
then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December heating oil closed down 343 points at $3.0280
today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field but
bulls are fading a bit. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.1750. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at $3.0500 and
then at today’s high of $3.0635. First support is seen at
$3.0200 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 3 points at
$2.6300 today. Prices closed near the session low again
today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.7500. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.5000.
First resistance is seen at $2.6500 and then at today’s
high of $2.6726. First support is seen at $2.6000 and then
at last week’s low of $2.5598. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

December natural gas closed down 0.5 cent at $3.687 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.60.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.742 and then
at $3.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3.65
and then at $3.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 26 points at 1.2941 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The Euro bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the September
high of 1.3183. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support
at the October low of 1.2813. First resistance for the Euro
lies at today’s high of 1.2988 and then at this week’s high
of 1.3027. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2930
and then at last week’s low of 1.2887 and then at 1.2833.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 68 points at 1.2473
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.2675. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the June low of 1.2438. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2540 and then at 1.2581. First support is
seen at last week’s low of 1.2444 and then at 1.2400.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 11 points at 1.0734
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The Swissy bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the October high of
1.0861. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of 1.0609. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0787 and then at 1.0813. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0711 and then at 1.0675. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Australian dollar closed up 19 points at
1.0359 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit
a fresh four-week high today. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at the August high of 1.0493. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 1.0191.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0381 and then
at 1.0406. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0319
and then at this week’s low of 1.0286. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

The December Canadian dollar closed up 38 points at 1.0025
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering. A seven-week-old downtrend is still in place on
the daily bar chart. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at last week’s
high of 1.0100. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at .9900. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0030 and then at 1.0050. First support is seen at
1.0000 and then at this week’s low of .9970 and then at
.9950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The December British pound closed down 7 points at 1.6120
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6175.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
1.5909. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6173
and then at 1.6200. First support is seen at 1.6067 and
then at 1.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 16 points at 80.15
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 81.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 79.50.
Next resistance lies at this week’s high of 80.42 and then
at 80.59. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.92 and
then at this week’s low of 79.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 22/32 at 148 20/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
146 2/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the October high of 150 7/32. First resistance is seen at
149 even and then at this week’s high of 149 11/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 148 8/32 and then at 148
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 7.5 (32nds) at 132.25.5
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 133.17.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the October low of 131.22.0.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 133.02.0
and then at 133.10.0. First support is seen at today’s low
of 132.21.0 and then at 132.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today on some short covering and bargain hunting.
The much-anticipated Chinese manufacturing data on Thursday
came out better than expected. The purchasing managers
index rose to 50.2 in October from 49.0 in September. That
did support the raw commodity sector early Thursday,
including the precious metals. The fresh China economic
data is also leading to ideas that China’s economy has
bottomed out and is on the mend. Now, the market place
awaits the all-important U.S. employment report that is due
out Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of
the jobs report is forecast to come in at up 125,000 in
October. Look for a more active trading day Friday, and
especially in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report.
In Europe, reports overnight showed Greece’s manufacturing
sector contracted at its fastest pace in four months in
October. The Greek purchasing managers index was 41.0 in
October versus 42.2 in September.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 41.50 points at
2,682.00. Prices closed near the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,778.75. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of 2,600.00.
First resistance is seen at 2,700.00 and then at 2,725.00.
First support is seen at 2,650.00 and then at today’s low
of 2,627.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 16.20 at 1,423.00.
Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,459.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the August low of 1,350.00. First
resistance is seen at 1,433.10 and then at 1,440.00. First
support is seen at 1,415.00 and then at today’s low of
1,399.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed up 120 points at 13,150. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,525. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,210 and
then at 13,250. First support is seen at 13,100 and then at
today’s low of 13,070. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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