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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Nov. 20

Nov 21, 2012

Tuesday Evening, November 20-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.40 at
$130.55 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and closed at a fresh four-week high close. Cattle bulls
today regained the slight near-term technical advantage. A
fledgling two-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the October high of $131.77. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$128.90. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$130.75 and then at $131.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $130.00 and then at $129.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

January feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $146.05 today.
Prices last week hit a four-month low. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$147.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $144.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s
high of $146.52 and then at $147.00. First support is seen
at Monday’s low of $145.65 and then at $145.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

February lean hogs closed up $0.32 at $87.75 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh
contract high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as prices are in a nine-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$85.70. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high
of $87.95 and then at $88.50. First support is seen at
Monday’s low of $86.95 and then at $86.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were up 7 cents at 7.49 1/2
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
on more short covering and bargain hunting. Corn bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field, but
the bulls are regaining some upside momentum. Corn bulls'
next upside price objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$7.63 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $7.08 3/4. First
resistance for March corn is seen at today’s high of $7.51
and then at $7.57. First support is seen at $7.40 and then
at today’s low of $7.38. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

January soybeans were up 18 3/4 cents at $14.13 1/2 a
bushel in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session high and scoring a bullish “outside day” up on the
daily bar chart. More short covering and bargain hunting
were featured today. Soybean bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing January prices above solid technical
resistance at $14.50 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $13.50. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.16 and then at
$14.25. First support is seen at $14.00 and then at today’s
low of $13.80 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March soybean meal was up $4.90 at $416.60 in late trading
today. Prices were near the session high and scoring a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart after
hitting a fresh 3.5-month low early on. Short covering and
bargain hunting were featured. Meal bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at $435.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$400.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$417.00 and then at $420.00. First support is seen at
$413.00 and then at $410.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March bean oil was up 43 points at 49.12 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high on more
short covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 50.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 47.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 49.22 cents and then
at 49.50 cents. First support is seen at 49.00 cents and
then at today’s low of 48.43 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 5 1/2 cents at $8.63 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on
more short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$9.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at $8.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $8.65 1/2 and then at $8.75. First
support lies at today’s low of $8.53 and then at last
week’s low of $8.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was up 3 1/4 cents at $8.96 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. Prices
last Friday hit a six-week low. HRW bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field, but the bulls
are fading. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $9.25. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $8.85. First resistance is seen at
Monday’s high of $9.01 and then at $9.13 1/4. First support
is seen at today’s low of $8.89 and then at $8.85.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March oats were up 2 cents at $3.88 today in late trading.
Prices were near the session high and hit a fresh two-week
high again today. Oats bulls have regained upside technical
momentum and have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $3.62 1/2. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $4.00. First support lies at
$3.85 and then at today’s low of $3.83. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.88 1/2 and then at $3.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 8 points at 19.86 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a
fresh four-week high early on. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for the sugar market today as the U.S. dollar
index was firmer and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Sugar bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, a five-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart was negated Monday to suggest a near-term market
low is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 20.50 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the November low of 18.66 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 20.03 cents and then
at 20.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
19.73 cents and then at 19.64 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

March coffee closed down 495 points at 152.45 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the coffee market today as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Prices last week hit a 22-month low. Coffee
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 160.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
145.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 155.00
cents and then at this week’s high of 157.80 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 151.90 cents and then at
last week’s low of 149.45 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

March cocoa closed up $40 at $2,461 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today on more short covering.
Trading has turned choppy. Cocoa bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $2,531. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $2,322.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,473 and then
at last week’s high of $2,488. First support is seen at
$2,450 and then at today’s low of $2,421. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

March cotton closed up 75 points at 72.81 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a
fresh three-week high close. Cotton bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the November low of 69.79 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 73.15 cents and then at 74.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 71.71 cents
and then at 71.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

January orange juice closed up 460 points at $1.2165 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
seven-week high. The frost season for citrus regions in the
southeastern U.S. is approaching, which is prompting
speculative buying in FCOJ. FCOJ bulls gained good upside
momentum today and have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at the September high of $1.3010. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at this
week’s low of $1.1430. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $1.2330 and then at $1.2500. First support is seen
at $1.1935 and then at $1.1700. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

January lumber futures closed down $6.10 at $324.10 today.
Profit taking was seen. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage, but trading has become
choppy at higher price levels. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $315.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the contract high of $335.00. First resistance is seen
at $327.50 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $322.60 and then at $321.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $11.10 an
ounce at $1,723.30 today. Prices closed near the session
low today on a corrective pullback from solid gains posted
Monday. The key “outside markets” were also bearish for
gold today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude
oil prices were sharply lower. Gold bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy
trading. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $1,739.40. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First
resistance is seen at $1,730.00 and then at $1,739.40.
First support is seen at $1,720.00 and then at this week’s
low of $1,713.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0

December silver futures closed down $0.249 an ounce at
$32.94 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw some profit taking after hitting a fresh four-week high
early on. The key “outside markets” were bearish for silver
today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil
prices were sharply lower. Silver bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $33.50 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $31.50. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $33.26 and then at $33.50. Next support
is seen at today’s low of $32.86 and then at $32.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 180 points at 350.85 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for copper today as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 357.50 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 340.30 cents. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 354.05 cents and then at 356.90 cents.
First support is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 347.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $2.49 a barrel
at $86.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on news reports that Israel and Hamas have agreed to a
ceasefire. The firmer U.S. dollar index was also a negative
for crude today. Crude oil bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of $84.53. First
resistance is seen at $87.50 and then at $88.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $86.17 and then at
$85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

January heating oil closed down 346 points at $3.0488
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1500.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $3.0000. First
resistance lies at $3.0704 and then at today’s high of
$3.0962. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0275
and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 468 points at
$2.6853 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $2.8241. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.6200. First resistance is seen at $2.7000 and then at
$2.7250. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.6595
and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January natural gas closed up 10.7 cents at $3.944 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Bulls have regained the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $4.088. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $3.598. First resistance is seen at $4.00
and then at $4.05. First support is seen at $3.90 and then
at today’s low of $3.843. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 4 points at 1.2807 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did poke to a fresh two-
week high early on. The Euro bears have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old downtrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart, but now just barely.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.3027. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
1.2600. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high
of 1.2832 and then at 1.2881. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2768 and then at Monday’s low of 1.2743.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 52 points at 1.2241
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 7.5-month low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep nine-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.2400. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2100. First resistance is seen at 1.2300 and then at
Monday’s high of 1.2335. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2233 and then at 1.2200. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 9 points at 1.0631
today. Prices closed near mid-range today, hit another
fresh two-week high. The Swissy bears still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now
just barely. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.0700. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
1.0400. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0651
and then at 1.0666. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.0609 and then at Monday’s low of 1.0579. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.

The December Australian dollar closed down 39 points at
1.0348 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of
1.0446. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 1.0263. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0403 and then at last week’s high of 1.0432. Next
support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.0324 and then at
1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 17 points at
1.0013 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Prices last Friday hit a 3.5-month low. A 10-week-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bears have
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the November high of 1.0118. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at .9900. First
resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1.0040 and then at
1.0075. First support is seen at 1.0000 and then at
Monday’s low of .9976. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The December British pound closed up 12 points at 1.5913
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
tepid short covering. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 1.6173. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5750. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5934 and then at 1.6000. First
support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.5885 and then at last
week’s low of 1.5822 and then at 1.5800. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 7 points at 81.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 82.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 80.00.
Next resistance lies at Monday’s high of 81.28 and then at
last week’s high of 81.51. First support is seen at
Monday’s low of 80.83 and then at 80.68. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 30/32 at 150 16/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall technical
advantage but are fading this week. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 149 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 152
21/32. First resistance is seen at 151 even and then at
today’s high of 151 23/32. First support is seen at today’s
low of 150 15/32 and then at 150 even. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 10.0 (32nds) at 133.19.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the July
high of 134.18.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at 133.00.0. First resistance is seen at
133.25.0 and then at today’s high of 134.00.5. First
support is seen at 133.16.0 and then at 133.08.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage in the stock indexes. At midday U.S. Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech in New
York, in which he warned of the dangers of the U.S. going
over the “fiscal cliff,” and said the Fed could do little
to repair the damage such would inflict on the U.S.
economy. That admonition from Bernanke deflated the U.S.
stock market a bit, which in turn put some further downside
pressure on crude oil and the U.S. stock market. The market
place is not always logical. Bernanke’s speech really
contained nothing new, and the sense of the market place is
that U.S. lawmakers will deal with the fiscal cliff before
January. In overnight news, the market place showed little
reaction to a move by credit rating agency Moody’s to
downgrade France’s sovereign credit rating. Given other
major countries have also been downgraded the past couple
years, and the fact that the credit rating agencies,
themselves, have seen their own credibility eroded, the
market place just yawned at the news. There is a meeting of
Euro zone officials in Brussels on Tuesday on when to
disburse the next tranche of bailout money to Greece, and
on what terms Greece will be held in order to receive the
money. It’s widely expected Greece will get the bailout
money, as the EU doesn’t have much choice if the bloc wants
the financially troubled EU country to stay afloat and stay
in the union. Spanish and Italian bond yields have been
stable to falling, which hints the EU debt crisis is at
least not worsening at present.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 8.75 at 2,594.25.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and saw
more short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low on
Friday. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,700.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 2,433.75. First resistance is seen at 2,604.50 and
then at 2,623.25. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,568.00 and then at 2,550.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.50 at 1,386.00.
Prices closed near the session high on more short covering.
Prices on Friday hit a four-month low. Prices are still in
a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 1,431.40.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at the July low of
1,320.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1,387.30 and then at 1,400.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,374.70 and then at Monday’s low of
1,360.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The Dow futures closed up 12 points at 12,750. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today on more short
covering. Prices Friday hit a four-month low. Prices are
still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 13,000. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the July low of 12,425.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 12,770
and then at 12,800. First support is seen at 12,700 and
then at today’s low of 12,670. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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