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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Nov. 27

Nov 28, 2012

Tuesday Evening, November 27-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.07 at
$132.32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on more mild profit taking from recent strong gains. The
U.S. dollar index was firmer today and that also limited
buying interest in cattle. Cattle bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A steep three-week-
old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the September
high of $133.30. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $130.50. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of $132.90 and then at $133.30.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $131.80 and
then at $131.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

January feeder cattle closed down $0.37 at $146.97 today.
Prices closed near the session low today on more profit
taking. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $149.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
$144.37. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$146.97 and then at last week’s high of $147.90. First
support is seen at $146.82 and then at $146.35. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5

February lean hogs closed down $0.17 at $86.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
profit taking. The U.S. dollar index was firmer and that
limited buying interest in hogs today. The hog bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as
prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$90.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$85.70. First resistance is seen at $87.27 and then at
$87.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $86.32 and
then at $86.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were up 4 3/4 cents at 7.56
in late trading today. Prices were near the session high
and poised to close at a fresh three-week high close. The
corn market bulls are regaining some upside near-term
technical momentum. Bulls have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $7.63 1/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.25.
First resistance for March corn is seen at this week’s high
of $7.57 and then at $7.60. First support is seen at
today’s low of $7.49 1/4 and then at this week’s low of
$7.46. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

January soybeans were up 22 1/4 cents at $14.47 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near the session high and
hit another fresh two-week high today on short covering and
bargain hunting. Soybean bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained
fresh upside near-term momentum recently. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing January prices above
psychological resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $13.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at
$14.50 and then at $14.75. First support is seen at $14.35
and then at today’s low of $14.23. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

March soybean meal was up $7.30 at $425.60 in late trading
today. Prices were near the session high on more short
covering and bargain hunting. Meal bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old
downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$435.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at $427.50
and then at $430.00. First support is seen at $420.00 and
then at today’s low of $418.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

March bean oil was up 66 points at 50.68 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high and hit
another fresh three-week high today. Short covering and
bargain hunting were featured. The bulls have gained upside
technical momentum. However, the bean oil bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
52.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 49.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 50.76 cents and then at 51.00
cents. First support is seen at 50.28 cents and then at
50.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was up 20 3/4 cents at $8.84 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near the session high and
hit a fresh two-week high on deteriorating conditions in
the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop. Wheat bulls gained
fresh upside near-term technical momentum today. Wheat
bulls now have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$9.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at this week’s low of $8.58
1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.85 and
then at $8.90. First support lies at $8.75 and then at
$8.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was up 25 1/2 cents at $9.27 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
hit a fresh two-week high. HRW bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh technical power today.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at November
high of $9.63. The bears' next downside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at this week’s low of $8.93. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $9.28 and then at $9.40. First support is
seen at $9.15 and then at $9.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

March oats were up 2 3/4 cents at $3.88 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high. Oats bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
$3.62 1/2. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $4.00. First support lies at today’s low of $3.85 and
then at $3.80. First resistance is seen at last week’s high
of $3.90 3/4 and then at $3.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 13 points at 19.28 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering in a bear market. The firmer U.S. dollar index
today did add selling pressure to sugar. Sugar bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at the November
high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the November low of 18.66 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 19.47 cents and then
at 19.64 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of
19.04 cents and then at 18.91 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

March coffee closed down 30 points at 148.60 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh 22-
month low close. The U.S. dollar index was firmer today and
that limited buying interest in coffee. Coffee bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 157.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 140.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen
at 150.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 151.45
cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 147.60
cents and then at 145.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0.

March cocoa closed down $26 at $2,452 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. The U.S. dollar index was
firmer and that helped to pressure cocoa today. The cocoa
bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $2,531. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $2,322. First resistance is seen at
$2,475 and then at $2,500. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2,430 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

March cotton closed down 30 points at 72.32 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Trading has
turned choppy recently. Cotton bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the November low of 69.79 cents. First resistance is seen
at last week’s high of 73.15 cents and then at 74.00 cents.
First support is seen at 72.00 cents and then at last
week’s low of 71.28 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

January orange juice closed down 295 points at $1.2450
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking from recent solid gains. Prices Monday hit a 2.5-
month high. The frost season for citrus regions in the
southeastern U.S. is approaching, which is prompting
speculative buying in FCOJ. FCOJ bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at the September
high of $1.3010. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $1.1430.
First resistance is seen at $1.2700 and then at $1.2800.
First support is seen at $1.2400 and then at $1.2200.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up the $10.00 limit at
$329.10 today. Some better U.S. economic data helped to
fuel the lumber bulls today. Bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $317.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the contract high of $335.00.
First resistance is seen at $335.00 and then at $337.50.
First support is seen at $325.00 and then at $323.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed down $5.10 an ounce
at $1,746.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and saw more mild profit-taking and chart
consolidation. The U.S. dollar index was firmer and that
also pressured gold today. However, a three-week-old
uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart and gold
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside
breakout price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of $1,757.10 and then at $1,765.00. First
support is seen at $1,741.30 and then at $1,730.00.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures closed down $0.179 an ounce at $34.05
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking and did hit another fresh seven-week high early on.
The U.S. dollar index was firmer and that helped to
pressure silver today. A three-week-old uptrend is still in
place on the daily bar chart and silver bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $35.51 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$32.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $34.37
and then at $34.50. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of
$33.98 and then at $33.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 30 points at 354.55 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and poked to
another fresh three-week high. A firmer U.S. dollar index
limited the upside in copper today. Copper bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 360.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 341.45 cents. First resistance is seen at
the November high of 357.65 cents and then at 360.00 cents.
First support is seen at Monday’s low of 351.80 cents and
then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $0.57 a barrel
at $87.17 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. A firmer U.S. dollar index today again pressured
crude oil. Crude oil bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of $84.53. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $88.29 and then
at $89.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $86.83
and then at $86.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

January heating oil closed down 268 points at $3.0326
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
Bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.1500. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at $3.0500 and
then at today’s high of $3.0707. First support is seen at
today’s low of $3.0156 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 93 points at
$2.6946 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $2.8241. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.6200. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.7145 and then at this week’s high of $2.7293. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.6714 and then at last
week’s low of $2.6595. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January natural gas closed up 1.1 cents at $3.879 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $4.088.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.78.
First resistance is seen at $3.95 and then at $4.00. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $3.841 and then at
$3.78. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 31 points at 1.2947 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today after hitting a fresh four-week high
early on. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down
on the daily bar chart today. The Euro bulls have gained
some upside near-term technical momentum and still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of 1.3155. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
the November low of 1.2680. First resistance for the Euro
lies at 1.3000 and then at today’s high of 1.3024. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.2932 and then at
1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 3 points at 1.2182
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a steep nine-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 1.2345. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2000.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.2231 and then
at 1.2258. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2162
and then at this week’s low of 1.2119. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed down 24 points at 1.0764
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
The Swissy bulls have the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the October high
of 1.0874. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the November low of 1.0555. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0807 and then at last week’s high of
1.0842. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0764 and
then at 1.0700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 21 points at 1.0344
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
nine-week high early on. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum
recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the
September high of 1.0470. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of 1.0203. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0397 and then at
1.0470. Next support is seen at 1.0300 and then at 1.0250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The March Canadian dollar closed down 9 points at 1.0030
today. Prices closed near the session low after hitting a
fresh three-week high early on today. Bears still have the
near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained
some upside momentum recently. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the November high of 1.0095. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
.9919. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0070
and then at 1.0095. First support is seen at this week’s
low of 1.0017 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

The March British pound closed steady at 1.6015 today.
Prices closed near the session low today after hitting a
fresh three-week high early on. Bull have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 1.6140. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1.5828.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6053 and then
at 1.6100. First support is seen at 1.6000 and then at
1.5950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 17 points at 80.64
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after
hitting a fresh three-week low early on. Prices also scored
a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today.
The bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 81.70. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 80.00. Next
resistance lies at 80.75 and then at 81.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of 80.27 and then at 80.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 12/32 at 149 21/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw some more
short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Bulls have
the overall technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 147 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
151 10/32. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
149 26/32 and then at 150 even. First support is seen at
today’s low of 148 31/32 and then at this week’s low of 148
20/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 6.5 (32nds) at 133.08.5 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 133.27.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
November low of 131.24.5. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.09.5 and then at 133.16.0. First
support is 133.00.0 and then at seen at this week’s low of
132.25.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today. Bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage in the stock indexes, but the bulls are
showing some strength to just begin to suggest market
bottoms might now be in place. In overnight trading, the
European stock markets rallied only modestly on news that
Euro zone leaders meeting in Brussels agreed late Monday to
disburse fresh bailout funds to cash-starved Greece. Most
market watchers had reckoned EU leaders would grant new
monies to Greece. The gist of the deal calls for Greece to
cut its debt to 124% of GDP by 2020 and a reduction in the
interest rate charged to Greece on the loans. The Euro
currency also was initially supported on the Greece news
but could not hold those gains as the day wore on. The
world market place showed no significant reaction to the
as-expected news on Greece. A heavy slate of U.S. economic
data released Tuesday did show generally better-than-
expected readings overall, and that did limit the downside
in the stock indexes. Traders and investors are also
focused on the negotiations among U.S. lawmakers and
President Obama regarding the so-called “fiscal cliff” tax
increases and spending cuts that are approaching. Congress
is back from its Thanksgiving break, so there will likely
be some more news on the fiscal cliff front this week,
which could be market-sensitive. There were comments from
lawmakers this afternoon that were not deemed constructive
by the market place. Meantime, in the Middle East there are
growing tensions in Egypt, as its president awarded himself
major powers last week, and the public did not like it.
Protesting in the streets is occurring this week. This
situation bears close watching and if it escalates, it will
more significantly impact markets.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 4.00 at
2,641.75. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
did hit a fresh two-week high early on. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the June low of 2,433.75. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 2,658.75 and then at 2,675.00.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 2,623.00 and
then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 6.10 at 1,397.20.
Prices closed near the session low but did poke to a fresh
two-week high early on. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
November high of 1,431.40. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the July low of 1,320.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,407.40 and then at 1,420.00.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 1,395.20 and
then at Friday’s low of 1,387.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

The Dow futures closed down 74 points at 12,862. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of 13,225. The
next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the July low of
12,425. First resistance in the Dow lies at 12,900 and then
at today’s high of 12,950. First support is seen at today’s
low of 12,850 and then at 12,800. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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