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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Nov. 5

Nov 06, 2012

Monday Evening, November 5-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.15 at
$125.27 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and were pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index. Cattle
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, it’s still my bias is that a near-term market low
is in place. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $127.00. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $123.95.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $125.90 and
then at last week’s high of $126.60. First support is seen
at $124.95 and then at last week’s low of $124.60.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

January feeder cattle closed up $0.10 at $146.77 today.
Prices closed near the session high on tepid short covering
in a bear market. Prices did hit a fresh three-month low
today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices
have been trading choppy and sideways for the past three
months. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $149.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $145.00. First
resistance is seen at $147.00 and then at $147.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $145.85 and then at
$145.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.82 at $76.92 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
three-week low. The firmer U.S. dollar index helped to
pressure hogs today. Hog market bulls have faded. Bulls and
bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at the October high of $79.77. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at $75.50. First resistance
is seen at $77.50 and then at $78.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $76.85 and then at $76.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 5 3/4 cents at
7.33 3/4 in late trading today. Prices were near the
session low. A firmer U.S. dollar index limited buying
interest in the corn market again today. Prices are still
in a choppy and sideways trading range but now closer to
the bottom of that range. The bulls still have the slight
near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power
soon to keep it. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the October high of $7.76. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of $7.05. First resistance for December corn is seen at
$7.40 and then at today’s high of $7.45. First support is
seen at $7.32 1/2 and then at $7.30. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

January soybeans were down 22 3/4 cents at $15.04 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were near the session low and
hit a fresh three-week low today. The firmer U.S. dollar
index helped to pressure the bean market today. Soybean
bears have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above solid technical resistance at $15.77
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of $14.84. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.24 1/4 and then
at $15.35. First support is seen at $15.00 and then at
$14.84. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December soybean meal was down $6.70 at $469.10 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and hit a
fresh two-week low today as the bulls are fading. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s
high of $490.00. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of $450.20. First
resistance comes in at $472.50 and then at $475.00. First
support is seen at $465.00 and then at $462.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December bean oil was down 91 points at 48.35 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low and hit a
fresh contract low today. Bean oil bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside power today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 47.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 48.50 cents and then at 49.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 48.25 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.9

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 2 1/4 cents at $8.66 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
The firmer U.S. dollar index limited gains in the wheat
market again today. Wheat bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of $8.40 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.75 3/4 and then at
$8.85. First support lies at $8.58 3/4 and then at $8.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 1 3/4 cents at $9.10 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. The
HRW bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the October high of $9.29 3/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $8.72 1/2.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $9.19 and then
at $9.25. First support is seen at $9.00 and then at last
week’s low of $8.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December oats were down 9 cents at $3.58 today in late
trading. Prices were near the session low and hit a fresh
four-month low today. Oats bears have quickly gained the
overall near-term technical advantage as a steep two-week-
old downtrend is now in place on the daily bar chart.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.50.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.57 1/2 and then at
$3.55. First resistance is seen at $3.60 and then at $3.65.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 8 points at 19.37 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range. A firmer U.S. dollar
index helped weigh on sugar again today. Prices are
hovering near an eight-month low. Sugar bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 20.50 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 18.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 19.68 cents and
then at 19.95 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 19.27 cents and then at last week’s low of 19.18 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December coffee closed down 380 points at 150.90 cents.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh 14-month
low today. A firmer U.S. dollar index and reports of a big
Brazil coffee crop pressured coffee futures today. Coffee
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is
to close prices above solid technical resistance at 165.70
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
147.50 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 154.70 cents and then at 158.85 cents. First
support is seen at 150.00 cents and then at 149.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

December cocoa closed down $2 at $2,445 a ton. Prices
closed near mid-range today. A firmer U.S. dollar index
today limited buying interest in cocoa. Cocoa bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid
choppy trading. The next upside price breakout objective
for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $2,526. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of $2,338. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,460 and then at $2,475. First support is
seen at today’s low of $2,423 and then at $2,400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December cotton closed up 5 points at 70.40 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on tepid short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a three-month
low. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
73.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at July low of 69.40 cents. First
resistance is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 71.86 cents.
First support is seen at last week’s low of 69.66 cents and
then at 69.40 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

January orange juice closed up 55 points at $1.0680 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.1200. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.0250. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.0785 and then at $1.0900. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1.0585 and then at last week’s low of
$1.0445. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

January lumber futures closed up $1.90 at $323.30 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. Ideas the major storm on the
U.S. east coast will produce strong lumber demand is
bullish. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $318.00. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $340.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$325.70 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $321.30 and then at $320.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $9.50 an ounce
at $1,684.60 today. Prices closed near the session high
today after hitting a fresh two-month low early on today.
Short covering and bargain hunting were featured following
heavy losses Friday, in the wake of a stronger U.S. jobs
report. Friday’s price action produced a bearish weekly low
close in gold and also re-established a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart as the bulls have faded
badly. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at $1,690.00 and
then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,672.50 and then at $1,660.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.0

December silver futures closed up $0.328 an ounce at
$31.185 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
after hitting a fresh two-month low early on. Short
covering and bargain hunting were seen after prices
careened lower on Friday and produced a bearish weekly low
close. Price action Friday also re-established a five-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver bears now
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $32.695
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $31.535 and then at
$31.75. Next support is seen at today’s low of $30.655 and
then at $30.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 105 points at 347.10 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
two-month low. A stronger U.S. dollar index today helped to
pressure copper. Copper bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 360.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 362.50
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.85 cents
and then at 342.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $0.88 a barrel at
$85.74 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on short covering after hitting a fresh four-month low
early on. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close
above solid technical resistance at $90.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $82.50. First resistance is seen at $86.00 and
then at $87.00. First support is seen at $85.00 and then at
today’s low of $84.34. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December heating oil closed up 376 points at $2.9850 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering
after hitting a fresh three-month low early on. Bears have
the slight near-term technical advantage. Pricse are in a
three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.1207. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $2.8500. First resistance
lies at $3.0000 and then at $3.0415. First support is seen
at $2.9500 and then at today’s low of $2.9347. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 549 points at
$2.6285 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and hit a fresh three-month low early on. Bears have gained
the slight near-term technical advantage. Pricse are in a
six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.7500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.5000. First resistance is seen at
$2.6500 and then at $2.6726. First support is seen at
$2.6000 and then at today’s low of $2.5524. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.

December natural gas closed up 0.8 cent at $3.562 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a
fresh five-week low early on. Bears now have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep two-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.40.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.588 and then
at $3.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.506
and then at $3.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 38 points at 1.2793 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh two-
month low. The Euro bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage, but are fading. A two-week-
old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Euro
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 1.3027. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart
support at 1.2650. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high of 1.2847 and then at 1.2900. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2772 and then at 1.2750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

The December Japanese yen closed up 22 points at 1.2463
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a six-month
low. Bears still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.2640. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the June low of 1.2300. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2481 and then at 1.2500. First support is
seen today’s low of 1.2416 and then at at last week’s low
of 1.2399. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 29 points at 1.0603
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh two-month low close. The Swissy bulls and
bears are now on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high
of 1.0787. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.0644 and then at 1.0700. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0590 and then at last week’s low of 1.0534.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 22 points at
1.0331 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the August
high of 1.0493. The next downside breakout objective for
the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0191. First resistance is seen at 1.0350 and
then at last week’s high of 1.0384. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0300 and then at last week’s low of
1.0286. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 5 points at 1.0028
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. A seven-week-old
downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0100. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9900. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0050 and then at 1.0100. First support is
seen at 1.0000 and then at last week’s low of .9970 and
then at .9950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The December British pound closed down 44 points at 1.5975
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field amid choppy trading. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.6173. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the October low of 1.5909.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6037 and then
at 1.6100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5955
and then at 1.5909. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 13 points at 80.82
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh two-month high today. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls are
gaining decent upside technical momentum. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 81.50. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
79.72. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 80.92 and
then at 81.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
80.59 and then at 80.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 24/32 at 149 5/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high on some short covering and bargain hunting.
Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of 146 2/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 150 7/32. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 149 15/32 and then at
150 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 148 14/32
and then at 148 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 11.0 (32nds) at 133.04.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh two-week high today on short covering and bargain
hunting. Bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 133.17.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
October low of 131.22.0. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.07.5 and then at 133.17.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 132.25.0 and then at
132.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today on some short covering and bargain hunting. It
was a modest “risk-off” trading day in the market place to
start the new trading week. The U.S. presidential election
on Tuesday is one big uncertainty for the market place, and
the outcome will begin to be digested on Wednesday morning.
There is a big leadership conference in China later this
week, and there are key European Union events occurring
this week. There is a vote in Greece’s parliament this week
on new austerity programs. Spanish bond yields are on the
rise Monday following some more dour economic data coming
out of Spain. Australia’s central bank also meets this week
to discuss its monetary policy. All of the above is making
for skittish traders, many of whom have moved to the
sidelines until after the U.S. election.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 20.75 points at
2,661.75. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,778.75. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of 2,600.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,673.50 and
then at last week’s high of 2,694.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of 2,634.75 and then at last week’s low of
2,604.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 6.00 at 1,411.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,459.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the August low of 1,350.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,415.20 and then at
last week’s high of 1,431.30. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,405.20 and then at last week’s low of
1,393.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 62 points at 13,053. Prices
closed near the session high today. Prices hit a fresh two-
month low early on today. The next upside price objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 13,525. The next downside price objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 12,965. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 13,075 and then at 13,150. First
support is seen at 13,000 and then at 12,965. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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