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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--November 15

Nov 16, 2011

Tuesday Evening, November 15-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $1.82 at
$124.05 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw short covering following recent strong selling
pressure. A general rally in the commodity market sector
also boosted the cattle bulls today. There is still the
specter of a bearish double-top reversal pattern forming on
the daily chart for February live cattle. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the November high of
$126.30. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $122.15. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $124.45 and then at
$125.00. First support is seen at $123.50 and then at
$123.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March feeder cattle closed up $2.47 at $149.40 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and soared to a
fresh contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above technical resistance at
$150.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $146.15. First resistance is
seen at today’s contract high of $149.40 and then at
$150.00. First support is seen at $148.60 and then at
$148.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

February lean hogs closed up $0.90 at $89.80 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw more short
covering. A steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart was at least temporarily negated today as the bulls
this week have gained fresh upside near-term technical
momentum to begin to suggest that a near-term market low si
in place. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $91.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $86.80. First
resistance is seen at $90.00 and then at $90.50. First
support is seen at $89.50 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 11 1/4 cents at
$6.54 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw short covering. The key “outside markets” were
neutral for the corn market today, as the U.S. dollar index
was higher while crude oil and stock index futures prices
were also higher. Corn market bulls and bears are on a
near-term level technical playing field. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$6.76 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.30. First resistance for March corn
is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.66 3/4. First support is
seen at $6.50 and then at $6.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0

January soybeans closed up 21 3/4 cents at $12.00 a bushel
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. The key “outside
markets” were neutral for the soybean market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher while crude oil and stock
index futures prices were also higher. Soybean bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for
the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of $12.31 1/2 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of $11.63 1/2. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $12.06 1/4 and then at $12.20.
First support is seen at $11.90 and then at today’s low of
$11.78 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March soybean meal closed up $1.90 at $306.30 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above technical resistance at last week’s high of
$320.20. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $309.90 and then at $312.50. First support is seen
at $304.00 and then at $302.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

March bean oil closed up 144 points at 53.20 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw short
covering and bargain hunting buying. Bean oil prices were
boosted by higher crude oil prices today. A four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 54.52 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of 51.51 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 53.04 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First
support is seen at 53.00 cents and then at 52.70 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.47 3/4
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets”
were neutral for the wheat market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher while crude oil and stock index futures
prices were also higher. Wheat bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $6.82 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $6.50 1/2 and then at $6.60. First support
lies at the October low of $6.34 1/4 and then at $6.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 11 3/4 cents at $7.15 1/4
today. Prices closed near the session high and saw short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $7.30. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of $6.95.
First resistance is seen at $7.25 and then at $7.30. First
support is seen at today’s low of $7.03 and then at $7.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March oats closed up 2 cents at $3.27 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit a fresh contract low
early on. Tepid short covering in a bear market was seen
today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart
support at the contract low of $3.21 1/2. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.40. First
support lies at $3.25 and then at $3.21 1/2. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3.28 and then at
$3.31. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 3 points at 24.72 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh
five-week low today. The key “outside markets” were neutral
for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher while crude oil and stock index futures prices were
also higher. Sugar bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage as a four-week-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. Sugar bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 26.18
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 24.01 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 25.00 cents and then at this week’s high of
25.45 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 24.50
cents and then at 24.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March coffee closed up 765 points at 241.80 cents. Prices
closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-week
high today. Short covering was featured. Coffee bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 250.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 230.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 243.30
cents and then at 245.00 cents. First support is seen at
240.00 cents and then at 237.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

March cocoa closed down $23 at $2,532 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and closed at a fresh contract
low close. The key “outside markets” were neutral for the
cocoa market today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher
while crude oil and stock index futures prices also higher.
The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,500. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,585 and then
at $2,600. First support is seen at Monday’s contract low
of $2,515 and then at $2,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cotton closed up the 400-point limit at 100.62 cents
today. Prices hit a fresh two-week high today on heavy
short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest. The
bulls today quickly gained fresh upside near-term technical
momentum. Cotton now have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
October high of 102.85 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of 96.10 cents. First support is seen at 100.00 cents
and then at 99.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 101.00
cents and then at 102.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5

January orange juice closed up 25 points at $1.6830 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another
fresh two-week low early on. FCOJ bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage but prices have been trending
lower for three weeks. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$1.7515. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.6625. First resistance is seen at $1.7000 and
then at $1.7100. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1.6715 and then at 1.6625. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January lumber futures closed up $1.00 at $227.80 today.
The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $220.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $237.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$229.00 and then at $231.00. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $226.00 and then at $225.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $1.40 an ounce
at $1,779.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The key “outside markets” were in a neutral posture
for gold today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were also higher. Gold bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old
uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside technical objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$1,804.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $1,736.60. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1,787.80 and then at this week’s high of
$1,797.60. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,760.90 and then at $1,754.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

December silver futures closed up $0.501 an ounce at
$34.525 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The key “outside markets” were in a neutral posture for
silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were also higher. The silver bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls'
next upside price objective is producing a close above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $35.70 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $32.105. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $34.835 and then at $35.00. Next support is
seen at today’s low of $33.75 and then at $33.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 190 points 350.70 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. More
short covering was featured. The key “outside markets” were
in a neutral posture for copper today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were also higher.
Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 365.35 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 331.80 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 352.15 cents
and then at 355.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 345.40 cents and then at 342.50 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $1.34 a barrel at
$99.48 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit another fresh 13-week high of $99.84. Crude bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. However, the inability of gasoline futures to rally
recently, and gasoline prices are in fact in a downtrend,
is a bearish warning signal that a near-term top is in
place for crude oil. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above major psychological resistance at $100.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $95.00. First resistance
is seen at $100.00 and then at $101.00. First support is
seen at $99.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

December heating oil closed up 149 points at $3.1771 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a fresh
13-week high close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Spreaders have been buying heating oil
and selling gasoline futures. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.2500. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below major psychological
support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at today’s high
of $3.1925 and then at this week’s high of $3.2004. First
support is seen at $3.1500 and then at $3.1250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 557 points at
$2.5910. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
saw short covering. Bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage as this particular market is straying
from heating oil and crude. This does not bode well for
crude oil. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.6750. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the August low of
$2.4110. First resistance is seen at $2.6000 and then at
this week’s high of $2.6150. First support is seen at
$2.5750 and then at $2.5500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December natural gas closed down 4.3 cents at $3.415 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
contract low. The bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. There are no early technical clues to
suggest a market bottom is close at hand. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.25. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.483 and then at
this week’s high of $3.553. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of $3.39 and then at $3.35. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 67 points at 1.3544 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 1.3857. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
last week’s low of 1.3484. First resistance for the Euro
lies at 1.3600 and then at today’s high of 1.3640. Next
support is seen at last week’s low of 1.3484 and then at
1.3450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The December Japanese yen closed up 10 points at 1.2985
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have regained the near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.3100. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 1.2850. First resistance is seen at this week’
high of 1.3027 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at
1.2950 and then at 1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 85 points at 1.0932
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
five-week low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1300. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of 1.0749. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1015 and then at
1.1100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0876 and
then at 1.0800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 22 points at
1.0150 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have faded. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0400. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
1.0000. First resistance is seen at 1.0200 and then at this
week’s high of 1.0299. Next support is seen at today’s low
of 1.0071 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 22 points at .9796
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at the October high of 1.0097. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at .9600. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of .9836 and then at .9900. First
support is seen at last week’s low of .9733 and then at
.9700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The December British pound closed down 57 points at 1.5830
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh four-week low. Bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but have faded. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of 1.6158. Bears' next downside technical breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.5750.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5927 and then
at 1.6000. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5793
and then at 1.5750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 29 points at 78.05
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 78.42. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 76.67. Next resistance lies at last week’s
high of 78.42 and then at 79.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 77.62 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 9/32 at 141 16/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw mild
profit-taking pressure. Bond market bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 139 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 143 4/32. First resistance is seen at 142
even and then at todays’ high of 142 21/32. First support
is seen at 141 even and then at this week’s low of 140
2/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 4.5 (32nds) at 130.10.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
profit taking. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 131.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
129.00.0. First resistance is seen at 130.19.0 and then at
today’s high of 130.27.0. First support is seen at 130.00.0
and then at this week’s low of 129.19.5. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mostly firmer today. The EU debt crisis once again
pressured stock indexes early on today. The EU crisis is
far from resolved and it could continue to negatively
impact the U.S. stock indexes in the near term. But at
present the U.S. stock index bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 19.50 at 2,362.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 2,268.50.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,374.25 and
then at 2,400.00. First support is seen at 2,350.00 and
then at 2,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 2.00 at 1,254.40.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,150.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,270.50 and then at last week’s high of
1,275.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,234.00
and then at last week’s low of 1,218.80. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 2 points at 12,058 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above technical
resistance at the October high of 12,230. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,120 and then at last week’s high
of 12,140. First support is seen at 12,000 and then at
today’s low of 11,970. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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